FedEx (FDX) is another company that has experienced incredible stock growth throughout the bull market of 2013. The delivery services company began the year trading at $92.36 and since announcing a share repurchase program in October the stock has taken off to prices in the mid $130s. At a time when retail sales are going through a difficult period, how do analysts expect FedEx to perform?
FedEx is expected to report FQ2 2014 earnings on Wednesday, December 18th. The information below is derived from data submitted to the Estimize platform by a set of Buy Side and Independent analyst contributors.
The current Wall Street consensus expectation is for FDX to report $1.64 EPS and $11.483B revenue while the current Estimize consensus from nine Buy Side and Independent contributing analysts is $1.62 EPS and $11.483B revenue. The magnitude of the difference between the Wall Street and Estimize consensus numbers often identifies opportunities to take advantage of expectations that may not have been priced into the market. In this case, we're seeing a smaller differential between the Estimize and Wall Street numbers compared to previous quarters.
Over the past four months the Wall Street consensus trend for EPS has increased from $1.61 to $1.64 while Wall Street revenue expectations have dropped from $11.525B to $11.462B. The Estimize EPS consensus has risen this quarter from $1.61 to $1.62 and revenue has fallen from $11.516B to $11.483B.
Over the previous six quarters, FDX has beaten the Wall Street consensus for EPS four times and revenue three times. Over the same time period FDX has beaten the Estimize EPS consensus three times and was accurately forecasted once. FedEx exceeded the Estimize consensus on revenue three times.
The distribution of estimates published by analysts on Estimize range from $1.57 to $1.66 EPS and $11.312B to $11.550B in revenues. We're seeing a smaller distribution of estimates this quarter for FDX than normal. The size of the distribution of estimates relative to previous quarters often signals whether or not the market is confident that it has priced in the expected earnings already. A narrower distribution signaling the potential for less volatility post earnings, a wider vice versa.
The analyst with the highest estimate confidence rating this quarter is JL7913 who projects a $1.60 EPS and $11.490B in revenue. JL7913 is a hedge-fund analyst who covers 57 industrial stocks on our platform and is ranked 116 of 3340 contributing analysts overall. Estimate confidence ratings are calculated through algorithms developed by our deep quantitative research which looks at correlations between analyst track records and tendencies as they relate to future accuracy. Like the Estimize community, JL7913 is expecting more revenue and lower EPS than Wall Street.