One of the reasons our members love us is that we tell the story through the numbers. Every income statement says something, every balance sheet has a history and every cash flow statement reveals a firm's true intrinsic value. The numbers talk--and we think every investor should listen to them. Let's see what they say about Red Robin (RRGB).
At Valuentum, we think a comprehensive analysis of a firm's discounted cash-flow valuation, relative valuation versus industry peers, as well as an assessment of technical and momentum indicators is the best way to identify the most attractive stocks at the best time to buy. This process culminates in what we call our Valuentum Buying Index (click here for an in-depth presentation about our methodology), which ranks stocks on a scale from 1 to 10, with 10 being the best. Essentially, we're looking for firms that overlap investment methodologies, thereby revealing the greatest interest by investors.
If a company is undervalued both on a DCF and on a relative valuation basis it scores high on our scale. Red Robin posts a VBI score of 4 on our scale, reflecting our 'overvalued' DCF assessment of the firm, its unattractive relative valuation versus peers, and bullish technicals. We compare Red Robin to peers Darden Restaurants (DRI), McDonald's (MCD), and YUM! Brands (YUM). In the spirit of transparency, we show how the performance of our VBI has stacked up per underlying score:
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• Red Robin's average return on invested capital has trailed its cost of capital during the past few years, indicating weakness in business fundamentals and an inability to earn economic profits through the course of the economic cycle. We think there are better quality firms out there.
• Red Robin Gourmet Burgers is a casual dining restaurant chain focused on serving an imaginative selection of high-quality gourmet burgers in a fun environment. The Red Robin system includes more than 450 restaurants.
• Red Robin's cash flow generation and financial leverage aren't much to speak of. The firm's free cash flow margin has averaged about 4.4% during the past three years, lower than the mid-single-digit range we'd expect for cash cows. However, the firm's cash flow should be sufficient to handle its low financial leverage.
• Red Robin has some compelling growth markets (Florida, New York, New Jersey, Chicago, Texas) that could help drive strong earnings growth in the years to come.
Economic Profit Analysis
The best measure of a firm's ability to create value for shareholders is expressed by comparing its return on invested capital - ROIC - with its weighted average cost of capital - WACC. The gap or difference between ROIC and WACC is called the firm's economic profit spread. Red Robin's 3-year historical return on invested capital (without goodwill) is 7.4%, which is below the estimate of its cost of capital of 10.2%. As such, we assign the firm a ValueCreation™ rating of POOR. In the chart below, we show the probable path of ROIC in the years ahead based on the estimated volatility of key drivers behind the measure. The solid grey line reflects the most likely outcome, in our opinion, and represents the scenario that results in our fair value estimate.
Cash Flow Analysis
Firms that generate a free cash flow margin (free cash flow divided by total revenue) above 5% are usually considered cash cows. Red Robin's free cash flow margin has averaged about 4.4% during the past 3 years. As such, we think the firm's cash flow generation is relatively MEDIUM. The free cash flow measure shown above is derived by taking cash flow from operations less capital expenditures and differs from enterprise free cash flow (FCFF), which we use in deriving our fair value estimate for the company. For more information on the differences between these two measures, please visit our website at Valuentum.com. At Red Robin, cash flow from operations increased about 34% from levels registered two years ago, while capital expenditures expanded about 72% over the same time period.
The estimated fair value of $50 per share represents a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of about 25.9 times last year's earnings and an implied EV/EBITDA multiple of about 8.3 times last year's EBITDA. Our model reflects a compound annual revenue growth rate of 6.8% during the next five years, a pace that is higher than the firm's 3-year historical compound annual growth rate of 5.1%. Our model reflects a 5-year projected average operating margin of 5.4%, which is above Red Robin's trailing 3-year average. Beyond year 5, we assume free cash flow will grow at an annual rate of 2.8% for the next 15 years and 3% in perpetuity. For Red Robin, we use a 10.2% weighted average cost of capital to discount future free cash flows.
Margin of Safety Analysis
Our discounted cash flow process values each firm on the basis of the present value of all future free cash flows. Although we estimate the firm's fair value at about $50 per share, every company has a range of probable fair values that's created by the uncertainty of key valuation drivers (like future revenue or earnings, for example). After all, if the future was known with certainty, we wouldn't see much volatility in the markets as stocks would trade precisely at their known fair values. Our ValueRisk™ rating sets the margin of safety or the fair value range we assign to each stock. In the graph below, we show this probable range of fair values for Red Robin. We think the firm is attractive below $38 per share (the green line), but quite expensive above $63 per share (the red line). The prices that fall along the yellow line, which includes our fair value estimate, represent a reasonable valuation for the firm, in our opinion.
Future Path of Fair Value
We estimate Red Robin's fair value at this point in time to be about $50 per share. As time passes, however, companies generate cash flow and pay out cash to shareholders in the form of dividends. The chart below compares the firm's current share price with the path of Red Robin's expected equity value per share over the next three years, assuming our long-term projections prove accurate. The range between the resulting downside fair value and upside fair value in Year 3 represents our best estimate of the value of the firm's shares three years hence. This range of potential outcomes is also subject to change over time, should our views on the firm's future cash flow potential change. The expected fair value of $68 per share in Year 3 represents our existing fair value per share of $50 increased at an annual rate of the firm's cost of equity less its dividend yield. The upside and downside ranges are derived in the same way, but from the upper and lower bounds of our fair value estimate range.
Pro Forma Financial Statements