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The three-month average of the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) is expected to decline a bit to +0.05 in Monday's update for November (scheduled for release on December 23), according to The Capital Spectator's average econometric forecast. In the previous release for October, the three-month average was estimated at +0.06. Values below -0.70 indicate an "increasing likelihood" that a recession has started, according to guidelines from the Chicago Fed. Based on today's estimate, CFNAI's three-month average is projected to remain at a level that's historically associated with economic expansion--and at a rate that's slightly above trend (as indicated by the positive value).

Here's a closer look at the numbers, followed by brief definitions of the methodologies behind The Capital Spectator's projections:

cfnai.20dec2013.gif

VAR-4A: A vector autoregression model that analyzes four economic time series to project the Chicago Fed National Activity Index: the Capital Spectator's Economic Trend & Momentum Indexes, the Philadelphia Fed US Leading Indicator, and the Philadelphia Fed US Coincident Economic Activity Indicator. VAR analyzes the interdependent relationships of these series with CFNAI through history. The forecasts are run in R with the "vars" package.

VAR-4B: A vector autoregression model that analyzes four economic time series to project the Chicago Fed National Activity Index: US private payrolls, real personal income less current transfer receipts, real personal consumption expenditures, and industrial production. VAR analyzes the interdependent relationships of these series with CFNAI through history. The forecasts are run in R with the "vars" package.

ARIMA: An autoregressive integrated moving average model that analyzes the historical record of the Chicago Fed National Activity Index in R via the "forecast" package.

ES: An exponential smoothing model that analyzes the historical record of the Chicago Fed National Activity Index in R via the "forecast" package.

Source: Chicago Fed National Activity Index: November 2013 Preview