US personal consumption spending for November is projected to rise 0.3% vs. the previous month in Monday’s update (Dec. 23) from the Bureau of Economic Analysis, based on The Capital Spectator's average econometric forecast. Today’s average projection matches the previously reported 0.3% increase for October. Meanwhile, the Capital Spectator’s average 0.3% prediction for November is moderately lower than a consensus forecast based on a survey of economists.
Here's a closer look at the numbers, followed by brief summaries of the methodologies behind The Capital Spectator's estimates:
VAR-3: A vector autoregression model that analyzes three economic time series in context with personal consumption expenditures. The three additional series: US private payrolls, personal income, and industrial production. The forecasts are run in R with the "vars" package.
ES: An exponential smoothing model that analyzes the historical record of personal consumption expenditures in R via the "forecast" package to project future values.
R-1: A linear regression model that analyzes the historical record of personal consumption expenditures in context with retail sales. The historical relationship between the variables is applied to the more recently updated retail sales data to project personal consumption expenditures. The computations are run in R.