Stocks discussed on the in-depth session of Jim Cramer's Mad Money TV Program, Friday December 20.
2013 has been the year of the bull market, but many people think the rise in stocks was a mere orchestration of the Federal Reserve and fear a correction. Cramer thinks the bull market will continue into 2014, and listed 5 tenets of a true bull market, all of which characterize the current market:
1. In a bull market, negative things happen, but are resolved positively.
2. Bull markets are based on profits not prophets. When companies create profits, the stock market goes higher, regardless of other factors.
3. In bull markets, companies take matters into their own hands and reward shareholders.
4. In a bull market, people are put back to work. Employment is coming back, but we aren't hearing about it.
5. No inflation. Inflation is the scourge of the bull, but we aren't seeing it.
Cramer took some calls:
Jabil Circuit (JBL) had a disastrous quarter and has fallen off a cliff.
Cirrus Logic (CRUS) reported tepid earnings and is not so good.
Cramer discussed the 2 worst patterns of "false floors" under stocks:
1. A big buyback, even a monster buyback, can't put a floor under a stock if there is a huge correction or if the company is doing poorly. Most buybacks don't retire enough shares to make a difference, and most buybacks are done in an "insanely stupid manner." Many CEOs know about running companies but don't know much about managing money. Often, CEOs buy back stock out of desperation and not at the lowest price.
2. No stock is ever too cheap to sell. Bad stocks are falling knives, and investors should get out of them. It is worthwhile to do homework to see why the stock is so cheap. Often stocks hit new lows because they deserve to, and justifiably cheap stocks usually get cheaper.
Cramer discussed 2 "stocking stuffers" which may increase in value in 2014.
Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) is a company whose parts are worth more than the whole. Cramer thinks management will break the company up into a fast growing drug company, a consumer products division and medical devices. Even if JNJ doesn't split up, it may have more upside, although it has already risen 31% for the year. The company is likely to continue to deliver revenue and earnings growth, given cost containment and product growth. It sells at a multiple of 15, which is a premium to the sector, but is likely to go higher.
TJX (TJX) is a great trade-down name and has a profitable business in Europe, in spite of the downturn. TJX has only just begun to expand overseas and could double its store count. Its same store sales have only declined twice in the past decade, even during the recession. TJX has increased its yield for 15 straight years and often buys back stock. One issue with TjX is its high valuation of 19. Cramer would wait for a decline before buying.
Cramer took a call:
Amgen (AMGN) is not one of Cramer's favorite biotechs.
CEO Interview: Martin Mucci, Paychex (PAYX)
Paychex (PAYX) is the second largest payroll processor, and it also has an outsourcing human resources division. The company beat earnings by one penny on higher than expected revenues that rose 7% year over year. The payroll business grew 5%, the largest percentage since before the recession. Cramer praised CEO Martin Mucci on a "breakout" quarter. The stock has risen 45% so far this year and 13% since Cramer interviewed Mucci in October. Mucci commented that both payroll and human resources were very strong. If interest rates rise very gradually, it is likely to be good for the economy and good for Paychex, said Mucci. He noted that the rise in small business lending and the housing comeback are great signs for Paychex. "It's been a big win, but it's just the beginning," said Cramer.
Expectations can make or break a stock. Nike (NKE), a newly minted member of the Dow, was expected to blow away earnings, given a strong Chinese and domestic business. Earnings were terrific, but not terrific enough; the numbers in China were slightly lower than expected, and the stock got dinged. Cramer thinks it might be a buy on its decline, but is a bit concerned. Tibco Software (TIBX) has scored some major contracts, but its sales momentum was not as strong as expected. The stock got hammered. Red Hat (RHT) disappointed last time around, but CEO James Whitehurst appeared on Mad Money and explained the problems were temporary. Cramer's charitable trust bought some more on the decline, and the stock rose 14.5% on its recent quarter; it turns out that Whitehurst was right and the street was wrong.
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