All The Wrong Reasons: Twitter, BlackBerry

Dec.27.13 | About: Twitter, Inc. (TWTR)

There are two stocks I want to focus on today, and each has a different public perception. The first is Twitter (NASDAQ:TWTR), and the second is BlackBerry (NASDAQ:BBRY). Right now, these stocks are almost at opposite ends of the spectrum when it comes to investor sentiment. Twitter could not be loved more than it is right now, but BlackBerry has almost been shunned like it was wearing a scarlet letter.

Since December 2, Twitter has flown. The stock moved from the mid $40s to over $70 in less than a month. This is almost unheard of, but given the unique catalysts that exist at the end of this year it is also not surprising. There are many hedge funds that are lagging this market and they want to make up ground before the year comes to an end. What better way to do that then with a company that has all of the bells and whistles investors are looking for?

Twitter was embraced and promoted aggressively over the last few weeks and investors followed suit. The rally in the stock has brought valuation levels to what perceived fair value might be four or five years from now (if everything goes right), so the stock is extremely rich, but investors love it and no one is questioning recent gains. That is, no one but me and a few select others.

The majority of the street still thinks that Twitter is solid, and I don't really have any problem with the business model either, I just don't like the valuation. The stock has increased too much, and it did it recently for all of the wrong reasons. Sure, good news must accompany a move like this, but the main catalyst came from hedge funds who were trying to catch up with this market. They seemed to have done that because the rally in Twitter in the month of December was huge.

Given this situation, Twitter is an avoid until it comes back down to support levels again.

The second stock is BlackBerry, which instead of being loved is hated by Wall Street. Management seemed to be making all the wrong moves and even though the product itself is solid, management's indecisiveness has caused serious harm to the financials of BlackBerry. Enterprise level customers, who were the backbone of BlackBerry's business, shunned away because they had no idea what was going to happen to the company. Management seemed as if they wanted to sell the company, but BlackBerry customers did not have an idea of who the buyer might be, then they started to worry about the sustainability of the business.

Instead of sticking with BlackBerry, many customers turned to their competitors, and this is exactly why BlackBerry is stuck with a glut of inventory and financial losses on their books.

However, BlackBerry is still a company with a solid product, and now that prior management has backed off the company may actually begin to regain footing. I find it extremely healthy that one of the founders has sold off most of his shares because it was he who was trying to force the issue of a buyout and that confused clients. That confusion no longer exists, at least not as it had before, and it almost seemed as if the perception on the street changed at one point this week, but then the conversation changed too.

Instead of concern about management, or the direction of the company, the topic was short selling, and the rally this week was initially attributed to short covering. The attention to short covering caused the material change that happened this week to be quickly forgotten, and the stock fell back on Thursday.

As I write this piece Twitter was giving up some of its recent gains, and BlackBerry was increasing some, and I think this pattern will continue. I believe, for the next couple of months at least, that Twitter retraces back to support levels, and if BlackBerry even catches a small break it could soar.

Consider these to be calls contrary to popular belief, but ones I believe will serve investors well. Avoid Twitter around $70, and consider BlackBerry. Most importantly, have a great start to your New Year!

Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.

Business relationship disclosure: By Thomas H. Kee Jr. for Stock Traders Daily, and neither receives compensation from the publicly traded companies listed herein for writing this article.