In the first round of the Growth Portfolio playoffs we have #10 seeded Polaris Industries Inc. (PII) taking on #7 seeded Michael Kors Holdings Ltd (KORS). Polaris designs, engineers and manufactures off-road vehicles including all-terrain vehicles and side-by-side vehicles for recreational and utility use, snowmobiles, and on-road vehicles including motorcycles and small electric vehicles. Michael Kors is an American sportswear, global accessories, footwear and apparel company with a presence in over 85 countries.
The following table depicts the recent earnings reports for each company:
($ in billions)
($ in billions)
Polaris is up 78.44% excluding dividends in the past year (up 79.73% including dividends) while Michael Kors is up 65.09% and are beating the S&P 500, which has gained 31.8% in the same time frame. This matchup will be played out in a best of seven game series based on the metrics below. For a complete list of all the metrics utilized in the seven game series click here. Not all the metrics will be looked at if a team can win and win early. This wild-card matchup will determine the winner which will go on to play against Illumina, Inc. (ILMN) in the next round of the playoffs for the Growth Portfolio Super Bowl.
Forward P/E is the metric of how many times future earnings you are paying up for a particular stock. The earnings portion of the ratio I utilize is the earnings value for the next twelve months or for the next full fiscal year. I like utilizing the forward P/E ratio as opposed to the trailing twelve month P/E ratio because it is an indication of where the stock is going to go in the future. I like to get a glimpse of the future, but will take note of where it was coming from in the past. Polaris carries a 1-year forward-looking P/E ratio of 21.92 which is fairly priced for the future right now while Michael Kors' 1-year forward-looking P/E ratio of 23.34 is currently fairly priced. Game 1 goes to Polaris.
This metric is the trailing twelve month P/E ratio divided by the anticipated growth rate for a specific amount of time. This ratio is used to determine how much an individual is paying with respect to the growth prospects of the company. Traditionally the PEG ratio used by analysts is the five-year estimated growth rate, however I like to use the one-year growth rate. This is because as a capital projects manager that performs strategy planning for the research and development division of a large-cap biotech company I noticed that 100% of people cannot forecast their needs beyond one year. Even within that one year things can change dramatically. I put much more faith in a one year forecast as opposed to a five year forecast. The PEG ratio some say provides a better picture of the value of a company when compared to the P/E ratio alone. The 1-year PEG ratio for Polaris is currently at 1.23 based on a 1-year earnings growth of 23.29% while Michael Kors' 1-year PEG ratio stands at 1.44 with a 1-year growth rate of 22.94%. Another game goes in the direction of Polaris for a two to nothing series lead.
EPS Growth Next Year
This metric is really simple, it is essentially taking the difference of next year's projected earnings and comparing it against the current year's earnings. The higher the value the better prospects the company has. I generally like to see earnings growth rates of greater than 11%. Again, in this situation I like to take a look at the one-year earnings growth projection opposed to the five year projection based on what I discussed in the PEG section above. Polaris has a projected EPS growth rate of 23.29% while Michael Kors sports a growth rate of 22.94%. Polaris has a slight advantage in this game and takes a three to nothing series lead.
Dividend yield is a no brainer, it must be had in a dividend portfolio. The dividend yield is the amount of annual dividend paid out by a company in any given year divided by the current share price of the stock. In my dividend portfolio I don't discriminate against low yielding stocks as long as they provide excellent fundamental metrics in the form of the forward P/E, the 1-year PEG and the 1-year EPS growth rate. Dividends are a way to measure how much cash flow you're getting for each dollar invested in the stock. Obviously, the higher the yield, the better, as long as it is covered by the trailing twelve month earnings. Polaris pays a dividend of 1.15% with a payout ratio of 33% of trailing 12-month earnings while Michael Kors does not pay a dividend at all. With this victory Polaris goes for a clean sweep of Michael Kors in the first round of the playoffs.
Although Polaris pulled an upset over Michael Kors, Michael Kors is still a great company with great long-term story. Both companies have excellent short-term and long-term earnings growth potential, hence the reason why they are in my growth portfolio. You can argue that both companies are in the high end consumer market and if a market correction should take place, these two players should weather the storm. Since "the rich just keep on getting richer" they won't stop from purchasing luxury goods such as those sold by each Polaris and Michael Kors. After beating Michael Kors, Polaris will advance to the next round of the playoffs and go head to head against #No. 2 seeded Illumina.
Disclaimer: This article is meant to serve as a journal for myself as to the rationale of why I bought/sold this stock when I look back on it in the future. These are only my personal opinions and you should do your own homework. Only you are responsible for what you trade and happy investing!