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Long/short equity

Zulily: Beware. Overseas Expansion Will Be Difficult For Flash-Sale Leader

Zulily (NASDAQ:ZU) shares have had a tremendous run, up 90% since the company's November IPO. With a market capitalization of nearly $6 billion (after taking into account dilutive in-the-money employee stock options), investors are expecting significant growth from 2013's $725 million in revenue (analyst estimate). While the company should be able to continue to grow revenue in the US at a healthy clip for the next 2-3 years, legal differences in return and refund policies between Europe and the United States suggest international expansion will be considerably more difficult. Without international success, Zulily's current valuation is difficult to justify and shares could fall 60+%.

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