Amazingly, the discussion on CNBC continues to be about how everyone should stay away from metals. Their argument is that since it was the worst performer in 2013, "logically," it will continue to be so in 2014. So, the same type of argument would have had you buying metals at the highs in 2011, since they were the best investment in early 2011, then they should have been the best investment for the end of 2011.
Too bad financial markets don't work that way. Financial markets are not linear beasts, rather, they are non-linear in their movements. So, those that continue to ride a trend until it no longer is a trend will only see a significant amount of their profits dissipate before they realize the trend is no more. So, if you intend on continuing to short the metals, I have been seriously cautioning you over the last week or so. In fact, I noted that I sold my intermediate-term short position in GLD at the 115 level, after we entered at that short at the 138 region.
At the same time that CBNC is trashing metals, there is an ever increasing group of investors and analysts that are confident that the bottom for the metals is nigh upon us. I am seeing more and more articles coming out this past week that the lows for the metals are in, and 2014 is going to be the "YEAR OF THE METAL BULL." Personally, I think that is a lot of "bull." I see this as the YEAR OF THE WHIPSAW or the YEAR THE BULLS DIE.
Why do I say that? Well, one way or another, the metals are going to hit lower levels in 2014. Currently, I am still tracking the set ups which can take us to the 136-140 region in GLD before we target the 100 region, which I have been warning about for weeks now. But, remember, even if we do get that break out towards the 136 region, it is just a set up for a bigger short trade to the 100 region. And, yes, that is why I think this will be the YEAR THE BULLS DIE. This set up will likely put hope back into the metal bugs and bulls (and even the CNBC pundits, who will likely become bullish near the top) only to have them wiped out, and potentially capitulate in 2014. And, that will finally set us up for the real rally we all want to see.
However, if we cannot set up to get back to the 136-140 region, then the bulls may simply die a slow death of 1000 cuts as the market meanders up and down over the next few months until we reach our 100 region in the GLD, with each small spike higher giving the bulls hope, while they get dashed with a bigger spike lower. Sure does not sound like a lot of fun for the bulls, unless they really understand what is going on.
Last week, I noted that "I think we can see one more drop into the 111.50-113.50 region, which, if one wanted to be aggressive, you may consider buying that for a long position with a stop just around 111." Well, the market dropped, as expected, from the 117.50 region, however, it came up shy of our ideal target region by 50 cents. Most times, these Fibonacci levels are hit to the penny, but sometimes they are off by a little. In this case, if you were waiting for the ideal target, then you missed the ideal entry for a long attempt.
However, after the market rallied off the 114 level, I put out a Wave Alert at Elliottwavetrader.net, showing that a pullback towards the 115.75 level would be another buying opportunity, with a stop just under 115, for a run towards the 118 region next. So, while it was a nice set up and trade, I suggested that most take their profits once we hit the 118.50-119.50 region, as there was a set up for a decline from that region as well. Therefore, once the easy money on the short term trade was made, it was time to step aside, and let the market provide us with better clues for the next trade, and next bigger movement in the metals.
Also, I noted that if the market was able to move through the 118GLD level, it would be the first warning that a rally to 136-140 may have begun. So, while we have the shot-across-the-bow, as we did move over the 118 level, we need to see the pattern complete up to the 121-123 region to become more near term bullish.
But, take note, as this is what I meant when I discussed having an appropriate quarterback at the helm of a "metals team." He must be able to size up the defense, and to call an audible when the defense is presenting a posture which will make the original play ineffective. In our case, we did not hit the ideal target region, as we came up short by 50 cents. Yet, we were able to call an audible at the 115.75 level, and still put 3 points up on the board, or in the bank, in our case, while only risking 75 cents on this trade, as our stop was 115. In fact, this "audible-trade" was a lower risk set-up than the one I provided in last weekend's update.
Now, if the market is truly bullish, then this rally will not see a pullback/consolidation until GLD reaches the 121-123 region. It is from this region that we will likely see that pullback/consolidation, and I will begin the calculations of the target region once we have a confirmed top in place. This should set us up to target the 136-140 region in GLD and the 26/27 region in silver.
However, if the market should break down below the 117 level in a strong manner before we hit the 121-123 region, then I will be looking for the 111/112 region, with the possibility we may drop as deeply as the 108/09 region. But, I will be attempting another long trade from that region.
No matter how you look at it, the bulls are going to be in for more pain than they currently expect, even if they get a "hope" trade to the 140 region. For traders, the "hope-trade" will be a nice opportunity for a long trade followed by a bigger shorting opportunity once we see a completed 5 wave structure into that upper region.
And for those that do not believe in the accuracy we have displayed with Elliott Wave and Fibonacci over the last two+ years on Seeking Alpha, feel free to move on. . . as there is nothing to see here. (smile)
Additional disclosure: I may initiate an additional intermediate term position based upon the action in the metals over the next week.