Paul Krugman posted this chart today. It’s the current Intrade betting on the passage of healthcare.
The good professor made these comments:
Betting markets don’t have any mystical power, but they do summarize conventional wisdom pretty well; and judging from Intrade, health reform has gone from a long shot to more likely than not.
If it does happen, and Republicans campaign on repeal, Democrats should say “bring ‘em on”. Those negative poll numbers partly reflect misinterpretation — a significant number of people disapprove of reform because they think it doesn’t go far enough — and partly reflect misinformation — the more people know about reform, the more they like it.
I haven’t heard many others venturing the opinion that Intrade represents a good proxy for the sentiments of American voters but I’ll not belabor that point. After all, he does have the PhD.
I would ask, however, that if the Republicans do decide “bring it on” and campaign on repeal and manage in the process to kick Democratic butt, will he then accede to that verdict? Or, will we have another lesson on whether President Obama should veto the repeal bill based on the betting line?