Cramer's Mad Money - 10 Laggards of the Dow (3/9/10)

by: Miriam Metzinger

Stocks discussed on the in-depth session of Jim Cramer's Mad Money TV Program, Tuesday March 9.

10 Laggards of the Dow: American Express (NYSE:AXP), Exxon Mobil (NYSE:XOM), XTO Energy (XTO), Chevron (NYSE:CVX), Alcoa (NYSE:AA), IBM (NYSE:IBM), Coca Cola (NYSE:KO), Pfizer (NYSE:PFE), AT&T (NYSE:T), Verizon (NYSE:VZ), Cisco (NASDAQ:CSCO), McDonald's (NYSE:MCD), Bank of America (NYSE:BAC), Pepsi (NYSE:PEP)

The Dow hit a peak in January at 10,725, and Cramer thinks that level could be reached or surpassed again, if it weren't for 10 stocks dragging down the Dow. Some of these stocks are primed for an upside while others should be avoided. Cramer discussed each one:

1. American Express (AXP) is down 2% for the year, but Cramer doesn't think it would take much for AXP to rally 12%, since retail is strong and corporate travel is on the move. Cramer's target for American Express is $45.

2. Exxon Mobil (XOM) has declined 2% and shouldn't see much upside until its deal with XTO Energy (XTO) goes through. Cramer is amazed the stock hasn't budged while oil has climbed up to $80 a barrel, and he doesn't think the stock will go up more than 3 more points in the near future.

3. Chevron (CVX) is off 3.5% for the year, and Cramer would sell, but sell gradually given positive statements at the recent analyst meeting. Chevron is likely to float up from $74 to $80.

4. IBM (IBM) While Cramer expects a great earnings report from IBM, that will be a full month away, and until then, he doesn't see IBM moving forward. The stock is down 4.1% this year.

5. Coca Cola (KO) has done nothing because of the acquisition of a bottler. Pepsi (PEP) experienced the same inactivity after making a similar deal, so Cramer concludes that Coke won't be moving up from its 4.9% decline any time soon.

6. Pfizer (PFE) made a big mistake bidding on German drugmaker Ratiopharm, and predicts Pfizer will lose another dollar from its 5.3% drop so far this year. Cramer called Pfizer "The Lucitania of the Dow."

7. Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT) has a new product cycle with its Windows 7 and a lot of cash. Cramer thinks Microsoft "can't be kept down much longer" and has "$32 written all over it" after its 5.5% drop.

8.&9. AT&T (T), Verizon (VZ), both of which are locked in a price war, have shed 10% since the beginning of the year. However, Cramer thinks both companies will recover well and raise their dividends. His price target for AT&T is $28 from $25.53 and his target for Verizon is $33 from $30.

10. Alcoa (AA) has a great story in aluminum and strong cash flows, but Cramer just can't recommend the stock after its 15.3% decline.

The following Dow stocks are breaking out:

1. Cisco (CSCO) had a great product announcement, but even without this news, the stock is "on fire," says Cramer.

2. McDonald's (MCD) is breaking out of the mid 60s and is heading to the 70s.

3. Bank of America (BAC)

CEO Interview: Steve Tanger, Tanger Factory Outlet Center (NYSE:SKT)

In spite of predictions of a commercial real estate demise, Cramer thinks stocks like Tanger Factory Outlet Center (SKT) "scream triumph, not tragedy." Tanger has 31 outlet centers in 21 states, yields 3.5% and beat The Street's estimates in funds from operations, which is a key metric for the company. Tanger has a 96% occupancy rate, a "beautiful" balance sheet and had a successful secondary offering. There is an active trend toward factory outlets, with Macy's (NYSE:M) and Bloomingdales opening more around the country. Cramer's one caveat is that Tanger trades at a 15.8 multiple while most commercial real estate stocks have a multiple of 14.

Steve Tanger said customers like factory outlets because they can buy brand name goods for 30% to 70% less than in the fancy department stores. The company is also expanding close to resorts to attract tourists. Concerning predictions of a downturn in business, Tanger said, "In good times people like a bargain, and in tough times like these they need a bargain. So the outlets have proven to be very resilient. We have been in business for 29 years and we have never ended the year with less than 95% occupancy." He also emphasized the benefits to the shareholder, who receives a dividend hike every year. Cramer predicts Tanger is going higher.

Another Rally in Financials: Financial Select Sector SPDR (NYSEARCA:XLF) JPMorgan (NYSE:JPM)

The financials led the rally last spring, and are up 144% year over year, however, six months ago, the sector ran out of gas and financial stocks are up only 6% since then. The technicals and the fundamentals point to a second big rally in financials. In fact, XLF (XLF) could rise from $15.30 to $21.

XLF declined because of an "island reversal" in October, when the index traded above its recent range at first and then gapped down after. Since this activity looks separate from the rest of the stock's movements, it is called an "island reversal." However, XLF is moving up from its low of $13.30 and appears ready to break resistance at $15.50. Cramer would buy XLF's star holding, JPMorgan (JPM) rather than the index itself.

Mad Mail: Dominion (NYSE:D), Exelon Corp (NYSE:EXC), Procter & Gamble (NYSE:PG), Intel (NASDAQ:INTC), 3M (NYSE:MMM), Ross Stores (NASDAQ:ROST), TJX (NYSE:TJX)

When asked about good long-term utility companies, Cramer would go with Dominion (D) which has a variety of green and non-green technologies and Exelon (EXC) which has the most nuclear power. Cramer told another viewer that he would buy Citigroup (NYSE:C) when the government is going to start selling it. The price will be knocked down and investors will be able to buy Citigroup at a discount.

When another viewer asked about "sustainable" companies, Cramer said he believes in business sustainability rather than the environmental version, which can lead investors to miss good stocks. Cramer's financial sustainability stocks are Intel (INTC), Procter & Gamble (PG) and 3M (MMM). When a viewer asked why Ross Stores' (ROST) stock is going up and TJX is declining, Cramer replied that Ross Stores has a superior dividend yield, and a lot of investors think TJX is done after its big move, but Cramer thinks both stocks are moving higher.


Jim Cramer was up 31% in 2009. Click here now to trade alongside him.

Get Cramer's Picks by email - it's free and takes only a few seconds to sign up.