Here is a look at how Bank Of America Corp (BAC) fares in ModernGraham's opinion, based on an updated and modernized version of Benjamin Graham's requirements of defensive and enterprising investors from The Intelligent Investor:
Defensive and Enterprising Investor Tests (What is the significance of these tests, and what is PEmg ratio?):
Defensive Investor - must pass all 6 of the following tests: Score = 3/6
- Adequate Size of Enterprise - market capitalization of at least $2 billion - PASS
- Earnings Stability - positive earnings per share for at least 10 straight years - FAIL
- Dividend Record - has paid a dividend for at least 10 straight years - PASS
- Earnings Growth - earnings per share has increased by at least 1/3 over the last 10 years using 3 year averages at beginning and end of period - FAIL
- Moderate PEmg ratio - PEmg is less than 20 - FAIL
- Moderate Price to Assets - PB ratio is less than 2.5 or PB x PEmg is less than 50 - PASS
Enterprising Investor - must pass all 3 of the following tests or be suitable for a defensive investor: Score = 1/3
- Earnings Stability - positive earnings per share for at least 5 years - FAIL
- Dividend Record - currently pays a dividend - PASS
- Earnings growth - EPSmg greater than 5 years ago - FAIL
Valuation Summary (Explanation of the ModernGraham Valuation Model)
|Value Based on 3% Growth||$4.01|
|Value Based on 0% Growth||$2.35|
|Market Implied Growth Rate||25.86%|
Balance Sheet - 9/30/2013
Earnings Per Share
Earnings Per Share - ModernGraham
Bank of America Corp is not suitable for either the Defensive Investor or the Enterprising Investor. The company has not had stable earnings over the last five years, has not adequately grown its earnings over the last five or ten years, and is currently trading at a high PEmg ratio. As a result, Defensive Investors and Enterprising Investors may wish to seek other opportunities, perhaps beginning with a review of ModernGraham's valuation of JP Morgan Chase (JPM).
From a valuation perspective, the company's drop in EPSmg (normalized earnings) from $2.77 in 2008 to an estimated $0.28 for 2013 results is a very poor intrinsic value from the ModernGraham valuation model. The market is currently implying a growth rate of 25.86%, well above what has been seen historically (especially considering the company has seen a drop in earnings). It would appear that Bank of America is overvalued at the current time, and value investors seeking to follow Benjamin Graham's methods may wish to wait until the company has a better recent history.
What do you think? Do you agree that Bank of America Corp is overvalued? What would be your assessment? Is the company not suitable for Defensive Investors or Enterprising Investors?
Disclosure: No positions