Here is a look at how Computer Sciences Corp (NYSE:CSC) fares in ModernGraham's opinion, based on an updated and modernized version of Benjamin Graham's requirements of defensive and enterprising investors from The Intelligent Investor:
Defensive and Enterprising Investor Tests (What is the significance of these tests, and what is PEmg ratio?):
Defensive Investor - must pass at least 6 of the following 7 tests: Score = 3/7
- Adequate Size of Enterprise - market capitalization of at least $2 billion - PASS
- Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition - current ratio greater than 2 - FAIL
- Earnings Stability - positive earnings per share for at least 10 straight years - FAIL
- Dividend Record - has paid a dividend for at least 10 straight years - FAIL
- Earnings Growth - earnings per share has increased by at least 1/3 over the last 10 years using 3 year averages at beginning and end of period - FAIL
- Moderate PEmg ratio - PEmg is less than 20 - PASS
- Moderate Price to Assets - PB ratio is less than 2.5 or PB x PEmg is less than 50 - PASS
Enterprising Investor - must pass at least 4 of the following 5 tests or be suitable for a defensive investor: Score = 3/5
- Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition, Part 1 - current ratio greater than 1.5 - PASS
- Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition, Part 2 - Debt to Net Current Assets ratio less than 1.1 - PASS
- Earnings Stability - positive earnings per share for at least 5 years - FAIL
- Dividend Record - currently pays a dividend - PASS
- Earnings growth - EPSmg greater than 5 years ago - FAIL
Valuation Summary (Explanation of the ModernGraham Valuation Model)
Balance Sheet - 9/30/2013
Earnings Per Share
Earnings Per Share - ModernGraham
Computer Sciences Corp has been significantly affected by the large loss in earnings during 2012. The loss was so great that it alone has caused the company to fail two of the requirements of the Defensive Investor and two of the requirements of the Enterprising Investor. As a result, for the next few years, this company will not be suitable for either investor type, until the company has recovered from the effects of posting such a deficit. Value investors seeking to follow Benjamin Graham's methods may be better suited with other opportunities, and may wish to review ModernGraham's valuation of International Business Machines (NYSE:IBM).
From a valuation perspective, the loss also affects the way the ModernGraham valuation model views the company. EPSmg (normalized earnings) dropped from $4.31 in 2009 to an estimated -$2.31 for 2014, clearly due to the fact that EPSmg takes into account each of the last five years of earnings data when determining a normalized earnings figure. Such a drop in earnings leads the model to return a poor valuation, indicating that any value in the company must come from a source other than the earnings.
What do you think? Do you agree that Computer Sciences Corp. is overvalued? Is the company not suitable for Defensive Investors or Enterprising Investors? Is there a company you like better?
Disclosure: The author did not hold a position in Computer Sciences Corp (CSC) at the time of publication and had no intention of changing that position within the next 72 hours.