The Dynamics of Gold, The U.S. Dollar, And Gold Equities

by: Market Folly

Since many hedge funds have exposure to gold in some fashion, we're posting some interesting research from Raymond James on the topic of precious metals. Raymond James' commentary was published amidst the massive rally in the U.S. dollar that definitely impacted the performance of gold. Given the action early in the year, Raymond James took advantage of the opportunity to look at the dynamic between gold, the U.S. dollar, and gold related companies.

Maybe the most intriguing bit of research was the investment bank's focus on equity stakes of gold miners and how they performed during the various swings in the price of gold. We note this correlation because while John Paulson's new gold fund will invest in derivatives on the price of gold, the main strategy is to acquire equity stakes in gold miners. Paulson is actually using these equity stakes as a wager against the U.S. dollar. So, while many will examine the dynamic between the U.S. dollar and gold, it is also worth taking a look at how shares of gold miners are affected as well.

If Paulson thinks the U.S. dollar will decline, then he is essentially wagering that the price of gold will increase. More importantly though, it appears as if he thinks equity stakes in gold miners will produce greater returns based on the correlation. But, as you will see from the research below, you also have to look at company specific risk. This comes after Paulson & George Soros recently bought shares of a gold miner.

At any rate, you can examine Raymond James' research below. Of the companies they cover in the space, Aura, Osisko (OSKFF.PK), Great Basin Gold (NYSEMKT:GBG), and San Gold (OTC:SGRCF) performed the best "on average, across all three post 'risk aversion' rallies." The companies that suffered most over the big gold sell-off were Lake Shore (LSGGF.PK), Golden Star (NYSEMKT:GSS), Aurizon (AZK) and Yamana (NYSE:AUY). Based on its research, Raymond James favors developers Anatolia and Detour, mid-tier producers San Gold and Crocodile, and large producers Agnico-Eagle (NYSE:AEM) and Eldorado (NYSE:EGO).

E.S. dollar & gold related companies:

You can directly download a .pdf here.

Raymond James' gold research joins a bevy of other publications that we've posted on the topic of everyone's favorite precious metal. Resources include: global macro hedge fund Woodbine Capital's research on gold, Passport Capital's rationale for owning physical gold, as well as our in-depth look at John Paulson's new gold fund.

Original article