Adobe (NASDAQ:ADBE) is scheduled to release Q1 earnings this Tuesday March 23rd, after the market close. Average analyst estimates for the Software leader are $.37/share in EPS and $827.4 million in Revenue. Twenty-six analysts track the stock with one upward EPS revisions in the last 30 days and one downward EPS revision in the last 30 days. Last quarter, Adobe beat average analysts' expectations by .02/share, .39 vs. .37/share.
I always find this a tough period waiting to see if the company is going to meet, exceed, or miss their earnings estimates. One thing I have discovered of value is to analyze sentiment moves in a stock ahead of the company’s earnings release. In the case of Adobe, I will use the piqqem sentiment index for Adobe to see how sentiment has changed in the last quarter, for the months within that quarter, and from the end of the reporting quarter through today. I’m looking for moves or changes that may foreshadow the earning release. (piqqem leverages the ‘wisdom of crowds’ by allowing its users to vote on the price direction of a stock and then applies its own propriety factors to calculate sentiment for a security. In their model, -100 is the lowest and 100 is the highest sentiment).
Sentiment for Adobe
The above chart shows Adobe’s sentiment moving up 3 pts from the point of their last earnings release. Sentiment for the S&P is down 26 pts in the same period, so Adobe’s sentiment strength is even more impressive given overall market conditions. On the Piqqem scale, Adobe’s sentiment rating of 31.90 is considered a buy and its absolute sentiment indicates a high quality stock. Only Adobe knows their actual results, but their current sentiment points to Adobe delivering good news on Tuesday.
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