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Consider this: Despite a rising population, non-farm payrolls in the United States are lower than they were a decade ago.

jobs-2010-02

The unemployment challenge is not just cyclical, it is secular. Sectors of the economy with a challenge include (click on images to enlarge):

  • Financial services (zero growth in 10 years)

jobs-2010-02-finance

  • Construction (-1.2 million jobs in 10 years, a decline of 18%)

jobs-2010-02-construction

  • Real estate (lower than ten years ago, having peaked in 2006)

jobs-2010-02-realestate

  • State government (up 9% in ten years, but down 0.5% from Aug 2008 peak and still declining)

jobs-2010-02-state

  • Local government (up 10% in 10 years, but down 1% from Sep 2008 peak and still declining)

jobs-2010-02-local

  • Automobile retailing (way down in ten years, having peaked in 2005)

jobs-2010-02-autodealers

  • Automobile manufacturing (catastrophe. Down 36% in ten years.)

jobs-2010-02-automakers

  • Retailing (this is grim too)

jobs-2010-02-retail

Over the near-term at least, none of these sectors of the economy are likely to power the next upturn in employment. So, when I say that this is looking like a structural issue (see here and here), you can see what I mean. I know these numbers are all backward looking. But, I don’t see any of these sectors jumping off the table right now as a job growth engine.

Where will all the new jobs come from? If you say healthcare, I’m with you.

jobs-2010-02-healthcare

And the data also point to the federal government as well.

jobs-2010-02-federal

Any other thoughts?

Source

Seasonally Adjusted Non-Farm Payrolls, Historical Data – Department of Labor

Source: Where Will New Jobs Come From?