Here is a look at how Hewlett-Packard Co. (HPQ) fares in ModernGraham's opinion, based on an updated and modernized version of Benjamin Graham's requirements of defensive and enterprising investors from The Intelligent Investor:
Defensive and Enterprising Investor Tests (What is the significance of these tests, and what is PEmg ratio?):
Defensive Investor - must pass at least 6 of the following 7 tests: Score = 3/7
- Adequate Size of Enterprise - market capitalization of at least $2 billion - PASS
- Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition - current ratio greater than 2 - FAIL
- Earnings Stability - positive earnings per share for at least 10 straight years - FAIL
- Dividend Record - has paid a dividend for at least 10 straight years - PASS
- Earnings Growth - earnings per share has increased by at least 1/3 over the last 10 years using 3 year averages at beginning and end of period - FAIL
- Moderate PEmg ratio - PEmg is less than 20 - FAIL
- Moderate Price to Assets - PB ratio is less than 2.5 or PB x PEmg is less than 50 - PASS
Enterprising Investor - must pass at least 4 of the following 5 tests or be suitable for a defensive investor: Score = 1/5
- Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition, Part 1 - current ratio greater than 1.5 - FAIL
- Sufficiently Strong Financial Condition, Part 2 - Debt to Net Current Assets ratio less than 1.1 - FAIL
- Earnings Stability - positive earnings per share for at least 5 years - FAIL
- Dividend Record - currently pays a dividend - PASS
- Earnings growth - EPSmg greater than 5 years ago - FAIL
Valuation Summary (Explanation of the ModernGraham Valuation Model)
|Value Based on 3% Growth||$7.68|
|Value Based on 0% Growth||$4.50|
|Market Implied Growth Rate||23.67%|
|Net Current Asset Value (NCAV)||-$14.70|
Balance Sheet - 10/31/2013
Earnings Per Share
Earnings Per Share - ModernGraham
Hewlett-Packard Company is very poorly affected by its negative earnings year in 2012, and it is likely to take a few years before the company becomes suitable for the Defensive Investor or Enterprising Investor. For the Defensive Investor, the low current ratio, poor earnings stability, lack of earnings growth over a ten year period, and high PEmg ratio are all disqualifiers. For the Enterprising Investor, the high level of debt relative to current assets, poor earnings stability, and the lack of earnings growth over the five year period are turn-offs.
Value investors seeking to follow Benjamin Graham's methods should therefore spend some time considering other opportunities, beginning with reviewing ModernGraham's valuation of Microsoft (MSFT). As for a valuation, the company's EPSmg (normalized earnings) have gone from $2.41 in 2008 to an estimated $0.53 for 2013. This considerable drop in earnings results in a poor valuation from the ModernGraham valuation model, and certainly does not support the market's implied estimate of 23.67% growth in earnings. As a result, the company appears to be overvalued currently.
What do you think? Do you agree that Hewlett-Packard Company is overvalued? Is the company not suitable for Defensive Investors or Enterprising Investors? Is there a company you like better?
Disclosure: The author did not hold a position in Hewlett Packard Company (HPQ) or any of the other companies listed in this article at the time of publication and had no intention of changing that position within the next 72 hours.
- See more at: http://www.moderngraham.com/2014/01/17/hewlett-packard-company-hpq-annual-valuation/#sthash.rQYbHUrM.dpuf