United Technologies (NYSE:UTX) will present its annual results for 2013 on January 22. The stock has risen almost 30% since January 2013. Is the increase justified or not?
UTC acquired the Goodrich Corporation in 2012 to strengthen its position in the commercial aerospace industry. It almost doubled UTC's debt and it is uncertain if the Goodrich acquisition will bring the positive results initially envisioned.
This article is the 7th in the series on the global aerospace industry. The aerospace divisions of UTC will be compared in performance to its peers, which include General Electric (NYSE:GE), Boeing (NYSE:BA), Rolls-Royce (OTCPK:RYCEY) and Safran (OTCPK:SAFRY).
All financial data used is published by UTC.
- Stock price used is $114.21;
- All figures with the exception of EPS and Dividend are x1m.
Corporate 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 Revenue $57,708 $55,664 $54,326 $52,425 $58,681 Net income $5,270 $4,979 $4,373 $3,829 $4,689 EBIT $7,684 $7,756 $7,186 $6,377 $7,625 EBIT% 13.32% 13.93% 13.23% 12.16% 12.99% FCF -$148.0 $5,174.0 $2,283.0 $3,824.0 $3,693.0 EPS 5.66 5.49 4.74 4.12 4.90 Dividend $2.03 $1.87 $1.70 $1.54 $1.35 Dividend Yield 1.78% ROA 5.89% 8.10% 7.48% 6.87% 8.30% ROCE 11.71% 18.11% 17.63% 16.85% 20.59% ROE 19.30% 21.48% 19.31% 17.90% 27.70% Debt/Equity 2.27 1.65 1.58 1.61 2.34 PE (Price/Earnings) 20.18
United Technologies Corporation has the following divisions:
Sikorsky: is the helicopter manufacturing division of UTC for the military and commercial market.
Pratt & Whitney: designs, produces and services aircraft engines, gas turbines and space propulsion. UTC increased its stake in the IAE V2500 engine consortium buying the Rolls-Royce participation in 2011.
Aerospace Systems: designs, produces and services systems and components for military and commercial aircraft. This division incorporates the Goodrich Corporation.
Building & Industrial Systems: provides building technologies. Otis Elevators and Carrier heating and air conditioning are among its brands.
|Building & Industrial Systems||2012||2011||2010||2009||2008|
Pratt & Whitney, the engine division will be compared with the other major aerospace engine manufacturers. From the United States this is General Electric. From Europe these are Safran, the French Connection, Rolls-Royce and Germany's MTU Aero Engines.
- UTC and Rolls-Royce are the largest aerospace manufacturers;
- General Electric and Safran are the most profitable, but Rolls-Royce is catching up;
- The EBIT% from both UTC and MTU Aero Engines is declining. UTC increased its ownership in the IAE V2500 engine consortium buying the Rolls-Royce stake in 2011. UTC holds about 50% and 25% for Germany's MTU Aero Engines.
The IAE V2500 deal at first hand doesn't look profitable for both UTC and MTU. Rolls-Royce may have gotten the better part of the deal. Apart from an immediate amount of money, they also get a percentage for each hour flown with a V2500 for 15 years! Rolls-Royce is certainly improving since the sale.
Sikorsky, the helicopter division is compared with Boeing, AgustaWestland, the helicopter division of Finmeccanica (OTCPK:FINMY) from Italy and with Airbus. The military divisions of Boeing and Airbus are compared in the battle for leadership.
- All helicopter manufacturers have similar profitability. However, Airbus's profitability is much lower
- UTC is the largest helicopter manufacturer but is showing a decline in 2012 while the other manufacturers have (a slight) growth
When viewing the fundamentals and comparing the helicopter and engine divisions the question arises if UTC has the right strategy?
The Building & Infrastructure Systems divisions have grown in profitability, but strategic investments and focus seems to be on the aerospace divisions. All are showing a declining profitability trend.
The major risks identified by UTC are the integration of Goodrich in the Aerospace Systems division, as well as the debt accumulated to acquire Goodrich. The tone of the last investor and analyst meeting is also cautious.
For United Technologies Corporation the 2013 results will be important. Is the strategy taken, the right one? Are the results showing signs of an upward trend reversal?
UTC is not a stock to buy before these results are known. The downward risk is too high. If the results for 2013 disappoint and worse than expected, UTC may take a dive.
Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.