Seeking Alpha

Potbelly (PBPB) has been one of the high-flyer IPOs of 2013, but has seen a recent sell-off. After reviewing the company, I think there is more downside ahead. The main issue has to do with the company's highly concentrated store base as it moves to a nationwide chain. This move should result in higher marketing and occupancy costs, which will put pressure on earnings. Since PBPB is really not a same-store sales story, I expect unit margins to compress in the future. Additionally, share lockups expire in April, which will greatly increase the outstanding float and should result in downward pressure on the stock. After completing a sensitivity analysis of the company's future, I don't see upside to...

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