Bristol-Myers Squibb Co. (BMY) is set to report FQ4 2013 earnings before the market opens on Friday, January 24. Bristol-Myers Squibb is an American pharmaceutical company. BMY patents and manufactures drugs designed to help fight serious disease including cancer, HIV/AIDS, heart disease, psychiatric disorders, and more. In December, BMY announced the sale of its diabetes business so the company could continue evolving toward becoming a specialty BioPharma company. Here’s how the buy-side expects BMY to report on Friday.
The information below is derived from data submitted to the Estimize.com platform by a set of Buy Side and Independent analyst contributors.
The current Wall Street consensus expectation is for Bristol-Myers Squibb to report 42c EPS and $4.303B revenue while the current Estimize.com consensus from 9 Buy Side and Independent contributing analysts is 44c EPS and $4.342B revenue. This quarter the buy-side as represented by the Estimize.com community is expecting Bristol-Myers Squibb to beat the Wall Street consensus on both profit and revenue.
The magnitude of the difference between the Wall Street and Estimize consensus numbers often identifies opportunities to take advantage of expectations that may not have been priced into the market. In this case we are seeing an average differential between the 2 groups’ forecasts.
By tapping into a wider range of contributors including hedge-fund analysts, asset managers, independent research shops, students, and non professional investors, Estimize has created a data set that is up to 69.5% more accurate than Wall Street, but more importantly it does a better job of representing the market’s actual expectations. It has been confirmed by an independent academic study from Rice University that stock prices tend to react with a more strongly associated degree to the expectation benchmark from Estimize than from the Wall Street consensus.
The distribution of estimates published by analysts on Estimize range from 42c to 45c EPS and $4.297B to $4.450B in revenues. This quarter we’re seeing a larger distribution of estimates compared to previous quarters.
The size of the distribution of estimates relative to previous quarters often signals whether or not the market is confident that it has priced in the expected earnings already. A larger distribution of estimates signaling the potential for greater volatility post earnings, a smaller vice versa.
This quarter the Wall Street profit consensus fell from 44c to 42c EPS while their revenue forecast has inched down from $4.306B to $4.303B. Meanwhile the Estimize EPS consensus opened the period at 43c and edged higher to 44c while the Estimize revenue consensus surged before the report from $4.308B to $4.342B. Timeliness is correlated with accuracy, and an increase in the community consensus going into the report is often a bullish indicator.
The analyst with the highest estimate confidence rating this quarter is dtamv who projects 45c EPS and $4.450B in revenue. In the Winter 2014 season, dtamv is currently ranked as the 73rd best analyst and is ranked 696th overall among over 3,500 contributing analysts. Estimate confidence ratings are calculated through algorithms developed by deep quantitative research which looks at correlations between analyst track records and tendencies as they relate to future accuracy. In this case dtamv expects BMY to beat both Wall Street and Estimize on the top and bottom line.
So far this year we have already seen a few other biotech and pharma companies such as Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) report encouraging news for investors. This quarter analysts on the Estimize.com platform are expecting Bristol-Myers Squibb to beat Wall Street expectations on both profit and revenue.