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Encana Corporation (NYSE:ECA)

CIBC 17th Annual Whistler Institutional Investor Conference Call

January 24, 2014 11:35 am ET

Executives

David Hill - Executive Vice-President, Exploration & Business Development

Analysts

Arthur Grayfer - CIBC

Arthur Grayfer - CIBC

Good morning. We're just going to start the next session here. My name is Arthur Grayfer. I have the pleasure of introducing David Hill, who is EVP of Exploration and Production for Encana.

David Hill

Great, thanks. If you don't mind, I'll stand up here to start. I appreciate you all taking the time to stop in this morning. As Arthur said, I'm David Hill, Executive Vice-President of Exploration & Business Development at Encana. First time at Whistler, so a great time to be here, so I appreciate the opportunity to come talk to you. I know some of you are very familiar with Encana, but I would like to take a few minutes this morning as we get started, just to touch base on some of the core components of our new strategy and then jump into some Q&A.

Before we get started, just as always I'm going to refer you to the advice regarding forward-looking statements set on the last couple of slides of the slide deck, so I don't have to, thanks to [indiscernible], I don't have to show it to you. What I'd like to do is really do three things here real briefly, is just touch on our strategy, touch on some of the key measures for 2014 and going forward, and talk briefly just a little bit about our 2014 plans.

Right up here is just really our vision, our strategy and our goal. It's quite simple. Having been involved in developing this strategy, I really think about it as really about clarity for the organization, mainly internally, given the organization clarity of who we are going forward, as well as externally to our shareholders, both our current and future ones.

We kind of coined the phrase of 'Getting Back to Winning', something Encana has been very good at, talking to the staff over the last several months really felt internally this is already get back to winning and with our new CEO and new strategy, that's what we're set about to do. So it's a real simple strategy from my view and it's really about disciplined focus, something for Encana, and focusing on generating profitable growth.

So what does that look like for us? When I think about it looking at 2017, we kind of look up here and talk about what we're going to see as a shift of our portfolio, more balanced towards oil liquids and natural gas, focusing on growth for us in a limited number of plays, and we'll touch on what those plays are and what that means to Encana. And then continuing something that we're very good at, this leading industry efficiency on our capital efficiency, capital structure and cost, something we're good at and we're going to continue to lead there.

So we've put out a scorecard with our guidance as people have asked a lot about how we are going to measure your success, and so we've put out a really straightforward scorecard that we will be reporting on as we go through the program over the next couple of years. And really three areas, portfolio transition, taking a look at how we're doing as we transition our portfolio just remaining disciplined and focused on five or a limited number of growth plays. And one of those measures in proxy for sustaining growth, profitable growth is really cash flow per share. Through 2017, we're targeting a 10% compounded annual growth there. And then looking at us between now and 2017, you should be seeing about 75% of our cash flow in 2017 coming from liquids based on our programs and our focus.

The second scorecard is really maintaining our operational excellence, a rededication to that if you will. We're resetting our cost structure as we speak, focusing on higher netbacks and higher margin plays within our portfolio, and again maintaining our leading capital efficiency and our discipline around that.

The third piece is really our balance sheet and our balance sheet integrity. It is something very important to Encana and very important to us as maintaining our investment grade and our balance sheet. Important to us too is the strategy really does not depend on asset sales or divestments. We're able to execute on this strategy from within our portfolio and we don't have to divest in order to maintain our capital discipline.

Also within our discipline focus here, we're going to have CapEx and dividends aligned with cash flow, getting things back in line. And again, as I said, we're going to maintain our investment grade credit rating. To me it's important for a couple of reasons, really it's just again being competitive and getting into the short, medium-term and long-term debt markets. It really does preserve our ability to maintain our hedging strategy as well as creates the opportunity to be opportunistic if there's any opportunities in the market for us that we like.

So this slide just shows graphically where we're at on the five growth plays. In 2014, 75% of our capital is focused on these five plays and that's a tremendous shift for us in 2013 where we were funding upwards of 25 plays within our portfolio, never really achieving operational efficiency on many of those. So here, by capital concentration we're able to do that. When our new CEO came onboard, we undertook a very deep strategic review within the Company, and one of those things was really taking a very rigorous technical look at our portfolio, and we did that internally as well as externally, had companies take a hard look at our portfolio, and we brought these five plays forward.

Basically listing up here why, is that they are definitely liquids rich, oil-rich plays, they have a capacity and capability of getting to 50,000 Boe a day or better, have a lot of running room for us, and that's important for Encana. What we do best is work on complicated plays, put our machine on it, a resource play hub and drive down costs and maximize efficiency, and these five plays allow us that ability to do it. They also generate attractive returns as well. And then in the middle we have our Clearwater Royalty IPO that we announced, another way of unlocking value within our portfolio.

I like this slide because it really just graphically represents one of the foundational principles of our strategy and where we're focused on value versus volumes within the Company, and what we're depicting here is cash flow per Mcf equivalent, and the blue depicts what we call our base production, that we expect in 2014 to be delivering around $1.90 in Mcfe, and then the green depicts our five core growth plays that we're also expecting to generate about $4.20 in Mcfe. And you can see by our capital discipline here and our focus, we're focusing on assets that are generating twice cash flow per share or cash flow per Mcfe and then our base production. And that's why we're confident that over time our focus is going to deliver results for our shareholders.

So here, just take a quick look at our guidance, I'm not going to read all the numbers, but it's just a nice comparison of our 2013 forecast to our 2014 forecast, and really shows that this is not really a wait and see program, that in 2014 we're going to see value creation as we focus on these higher-margin growth plays and not simply increasing volumes at any cost. The slide does contrast, there's just a note there that 2013 and 2014 are on the same price tax, so there's no price tax impact of these forecasts.

But in keeping with our strategy, you can see our CapEx and dividends are aligned with our cash flow, and despite we have a 10% or greater than 10% decrease in our capital investment and our upstream operating cash flow and total cash flows remain the same from 2013 to 2014. And just also important to note that these are higher-margin plays that we're working on and we aren't seeing the benefit in 2014 of any tax cash recoveries that occurred here in 2013, and that we're also expecting lower or smaller hedging gains as well.

So our strategy is delivering and I'd like to point out the top line, our pre-hedge operating cash flow which we really define as our production revenues less operating expense, processing and transportation is growing at 10% this year. And again, that's really focusing on these higher-margin barrels and capital discipline and capital concentration on those five plays. And then operationally, we see our production on an equivalent basis remaining flat with our slight decline in gas production because of our focus being made up with our 30% increase in liquids production year-over-year.

Just to summarize, I'm not going to read all this, but just to [indiscernible] 2014 is going to be a pretty exciting year for Encana. We've had a lot of change in 2013 and gone through a lot within the organisation and I think we're coming out of that, ready to go, and we're already beginning to deliver on our strategy.

With that, we'll move on to taking some questions.

Question-and-Answer Session

Arthur Grayfer - CIBC

Perfect. Just the first question that I have is, can you speak to the five plays that underpin your growth plans, why do these plays stand out, and maybe talk a little bit about them individually, why are you looking at these so favorably and what are the aspects or the opportunities that stand out?

David Hill

Yes, I mean a lot of people ask why these five plays, and we [did actually] (ph) mention, we did an extensive internal review of all of our plays and we all realized, and many people realize, we're very long natural gas and our resource base is pretty rich and pretty good. We have quite a bit of natural gas. But looking forward, we realized that we really needed to focus in on our liquids strategy, and the question we had ourselves is, do we have it in our portfolio, are we able to generate a strategy that does not require divestments, does not require an increase in commodity prices to deliver growth, and we're very, very happy to be able to find that within our portfolio. So these are those plays that we pulled out of the portfolio and are bringing forward.

Of course, the Montney has been a growth engine for Encana for a while. We have an excellent position there, a commanding position in my view, about 575,000 acres. We have a great partnership with Mitsubishi that's helping us unlock that, and we're going to be spending upwards of $900 million on that play to accelerate production. The play is amazing in my view, as an explorationist, pretty amazing of the extent, the size of the play and the type of hydrocarbons in the system to go from dry gas, sour gas, wet gas all the way to oil, and we have a good position in all those spaces there. So that's a great play that we like.

The other one, staying in Canada, is the Duvernay, one of the plays Encana studied and founded, and we have a very strategic position in that play in the liquids-rich window, a position where we desire to be, and real excited with that play, again another massive play for North America as this begins to get unlocked. So focus there is up in Kaybob area, it's something that many people talk about. And again, we have leverage there with a great joint venture partner, with PetroChina. So we see a lot of opportunity there as that play gets moving.

And then moving into the U.S., another play that we like is the DJ Basin. It's a play that we've been in for a while. That play is – the basin itself is massive, that's a stacked play, it's got normally pressured or underpressured tight gas sand called the J Sand at the base, there's a pressured cell in the middle of basin and a gas play that's liquids rich. That's overpressured in the Codell, the Niobrara and that's what the industry is attacking. It used to be vertical wells, a multiple flip pay, perforated and completed, and then with the advent of the horizontal wells and the multi-stage fracing, we've been attacking the Niobrara, and Niobrara is a big section, it's got a lot of potential and really excited about that play. I think we're running, just picked up our sixth rig down in that play, so generating good volumes and good value.

Then we move into the San Juan, the fourth of the five plays, another play Encana discovered and has a pretty big commanding position in what we call the core. That's a shallow oil play, 4,000 or 5,000 feet, a little different than a lot of the plays people are talking about and that's what we like about it. It again provides some breadth in our portfolio. It's also lower well cost, $4 million to $5 million a well, and we're seeing great IPs there and greater EURs and really excited. So that's another play that has a lot of running room for us.

Then we move into the TMS, the Tuscaloosa Marine Shale, down in Mississippi. Again we have a commanding position there, about 300,000 acres in the core. That's a play that we're working on to unlock and understand. In 2014, our focus there is really getting appraisal done for commerciality for Encana. So we like where it sits and we like the price it's getting on the oil, very thinly environment, very capable of really putting Encana machine on there and running. So 2014 in the TMS is really getting that appraisal. And I could go on with that but let's stop.

Arthur Grayfer - CIBC

Let's actually go-on on the TMS, so the TMS and the Willesden Green Duvernay on your…

David Hill

My purview, yes.

Arthur Grayfer - CIBC

Right, so let's talk about those two opportunities. What do you have to see in the TMS and the Willesden Green Duvernay to move it to a commercial status, is it the cost aspect, is it the productivity aspect, and if you could also tell us where you are in that evolution of that opportunity?

David Hill

Yes, I think costs are always important, but when you get into appraisal, that's really not the primary driver. I think really what we want to see, and let's talk about the TMS first, is really the type curve. There's been a lot of experimentation in the play. In 2013, ourselves and Goodrich drilled a few wells early in the year that looked like they are hitting the type curve. Through the experimentation, I think we've landed on a pretty good completion design. So really what we want to see is a couple of things on the type curve.

First, time on the type curve I think is very important, as you move a play through appraisal and get into development, that you have a high confidence that you're going to meet your expectation of the type curve. So it's time on the type curve for those wells. And then in 2014, our program is really also about repeatability of the type curve, looking across our acreage position and making sure we can repeat that type curve. So it's really important for us that as we just have an isolated area, we want to make sure we have a well-defined core on the type curve itself.

Then secondary is really bringing those costs down and continuing to see as the teams work on that. When you get into a multi-well pad, we know as an industry, as Encana, we can drive our costs down to efficiency and just do the concentration of our operations, the best what we need to do in the appraisal process, we need to see that type curve repeated and have a high confidence we don't miss. That's what the plan is designed to do here in 2014, that with ourselves and obviously we'll be watching what our other industry appears to be doing in the play.

We move up to Canada and look at the wells in green area, that's the sub-area of the Duvernay. Again, we like the play a lot and then looking at the type curve, we weren't seeing the initial well performance hitting the type curve. Our geotechnical team has begun a pretty rigorous look at the play and we've had a couple of wells come online here this quarter. We're going to take a hard look at it. And then we've got a few more wells that we'll be completing here in the first half of the year.

So we're going to look at changing up our completion design to maximize the type curve based on some of the geotechnical work that we're doing. So we're shooting the 3D and taking a hard look at that area. And then again in 2014, we have about four wells planned later in the year that we'll take all that information and strategically drill those wells with designing lateral lengths and completions to repeat that type curve. So those are the two focus areas for my team this year. So we're pretty excited to be on those.

Arthur Grayfer - CIBC

So, let's take for argument's sake that the TMS and southern Duvernay don't pan out or they're inconsistent to where it is, how does that alter the strategy for Encana in 2015 and 2016?

David Hill

That's a good question, and we get that quite often. So a couple of things we look at. First is making sure we fully understand what happened with those plays, and then the second thing we'd be doing is looking at the other three or four plays that we have that we're currently growing and are we seeing continued growth and opportunity, so we'd look at accelerating those even further when out to 2015 and 2016. Again, that we have a pretty deep portfolio, so we'll simply look deeper within our portfolio to see if we can pull something forward, looking at where we're at on the commodity prices as well as activity in 2015 and 2016, or we'll look outside of the portfolio to see if there's something else we might be interested in.

Arthur Grayfer - CIBC

All right. You made a comment that, you highlighted depending on commodity prices. So given the strength in natural gas prices, given that you guys are a heavily gas-weighted company, does that change the new strategy at all to tweak it?

David Hill

That's a good question, we get that a lot. We're going to be very true to our strategy, that's one thing that we tutor in Encana, that's one thing you need to test this on. So if we're seeing a strengthening of the price here in the near term, and of course that's great, but I think we need to see a long-term sustainable price difference to get back to drilling some of our really good dry gas assets. So right now, we think the pricing we've been talking about, [$3.50 to $4.50] (ph) in Mcf range now, but if we see something greater than that, we'll definitely take another look at it, but we're going to be very dedicated to the five core growth plays that we're focused on and it would have to be something significant to shift us off that.

Arthur Grayfer - CIBC

Okay. Are there any questions in the audience?

Unidentified Participant

(inaudible)

David Hill

The hedging? I guess what I can tell you, and we won't be talking about Q4 here in year-end, so I can't really talk about where we're at in the fourth quarter, but going into the fourth quarter, we are 50% hedged and I think the price was either [$4.18 to $4.20] (ph) on that hedge on the 50%, and we'll be talking about where we ended up in 2014 here just in a couple of weeks.

Arthur Grayfer - CIBC

Maybe then switch gears a little bit to say the Clearwater, I know that's not really your [real house] (ph) but could you provide a little update on the Clearwater IPO, is there update on timing, and any new developments in that arena?

David Hill

Yes, I can touch on a few things and I think where we're at, we're still on schedule, we've been talking about a summer IPO for the Clearwater Royalty interest. So we're on target for that. As part of that process here, we're doing the financials, getting prospectus in order. We have the CEO search underway, bringing a third-party CEO in for that company, as well as some board members that we're recruiting right now as we speak. So we're getting the team together, we're moving some of the team outside of Encana already to begin to act and behave as an independent company, and aggressively looking at the growth opportunities for the IPO.

Arthur Grayfer - CIBC

Okay. So, is there any color as to when you might file, any thoughts on that?

David Hill

Yes, I can't probably speak to that at the moment. We have a plan, but I don't want to just create false expectations. We want to get on target there.

Arthur Grayfer - CIBC

Just thought I'd ask. Can you talk a little bit about your role specifically within the Company on a go-forward basis? There seems to be a lot of focus on repeatability and scalability in a handful of core areas where you're really focused on bringing up new opportunities?

David Hill

Yes, it's a pretty interesting shift within Encana. When Doug came onboard, his first mission was, what is our strategy, who are we, are we good at whatever we want to be better at and let's get that vision out there. And then the second part of that was aligning the organization with the strategy, all right. That's the second thing we did. And obviously the third thing we're well underway on is aligning our performance management along with the strategy.

So when we went through the strategy development, we realized we do have a pretty good exploration arm within the Company. So we basically brought that exploration arm up to the executive table with an expanded function. Prior we were, just had an Executive Vice President of Business Development. We had a lot of redundancy in the organisation with our business unit and divisional structure.

As we took that apart and created a COO and took the divisions away, and while doing that we reduced the redundancy across the organisation. We did that through again a workforce reduction that was tied to strategy. And then we brought all that exploration under my purview as well as North American mineral land, and then also managing emerging plays. We found that we're actually pretty good at finding prospects and getting them developed. We wanted to make sure we had a disciplined approach through appraisal, and that's what they brought in to our team and we've risen that up as well.

So really what I'm charged with is really the portfolio of the future. So we're looking at today's portfolio, that's what Mike McAllister is focused on, and then my role is looking at optimizing today's portfolio and looking at the future, not just tomorrow, 2015, but beyond 2018 and what does it look like for Encana, are we in the best place, making sure we're in the best rock. We have a saying inside the Company that, rocks really don't know what side of the border they are on.

Arthur Grayfer - CIBC

And so, you kind of touched on that in your answer a couple of times on this topic, the cultural shift and the strategic shift, but can you talk about some of the changes you're seeing in the Company culturally?

David Hill

Yes, we spend a lot of time talking to the Company and asking ourselves through focus groups and surveys, et cetera, just who we are, and what we really see is, fundamentally what we're really good at and that's part of our culture, it's operational efficiencies and unlocking complex plays. I think one of the areas that we feel that we were lacking and we're trying to get back to is a little more about our capital discipline, getting more capital discipline within the organisation and getting more of a commercial mindset.

So some of the changes we're doing is structural and we're really realigning the organisation to meet the strategy and some of the cultural things, getting our performance management lined up, it's not about the business unit, it's not about the asset, it's the Company or our financial performance, now driving down P&L statements down into the asset level where everybody is very visible, and all of our decisions down at the asset level we can see the profitability of those decisions.

And then the other is, it's not just about having capital. A lot of times with an asset team, you see capital and you see that you're succeeding. So a lot of the plays that we're not driving forward on our growth play, we're focusing on our base production and kind of bringing that forward with a disciplined focus on ways to increase our base production and offset the decline, as well as many of those reservoirs we've been drilling and we really haven't gone back to look back technically how are those reservoirs performing. So doing simulation studies really trying to unpack some of the great work we've done over the past couple of years and seeing how we can continue to optimize those plays. So, just putting some of that back into our culture that we have.

Arthur Grayfer - CIBC

Okay. Any questions from the audience? The question I have is, what do you think that say the street is missing on Encana right now, and maybe they might emerge in the next year or two years, and what hasn't street picked up on yet?

David Hill

That's a good question. I think we've been pretty clear here recently on putting out our strategy and our vision. So I think I'll just do a lot of our Q&As where I think people are getting that [delta] (ph). And I think the other part of this is just that I think people are asking, what are you going to divest, and I keep reminding folks that nothing's changed, we have an active A&D program, always have, always will, but I think we got to keep reminding people we don't have to divest anything. We really want to keep the optionality. We're not giving up on natural gas, we are a good natural gas company, but we're getting more of a balanced portfolio, and that balance is not just the hydrocarbon based, it's also looking at geography, where are our assets as well as the life cycle, making sure we have a balanced portfolio within the life cycle. So I think those are just a few of the things, but for us it's staying on target and delivering what we've been talking about.

Arthur Grayfer - CIBC

You touched on asset dispositions a couple of times now, and there's been some talk in the press about Panuke being sold. Can you talk a little bit about, so let's say Deep Panuke or another asset in the portfolio goes, how could you see that capital being redeployed or what should we think about it? Not that you need to do it, but if it did happen, what happens to the strategy and how does it change?

David Hill

I'll just get to starters, not that we need to do that or not that there's anything wrong with that, it's fine I would say, but what would we do? I think the first thing is what we wouldn't do is increase our capital using that, just keeping our discipline focused and we have a strong balance sheet, and our ending the year I think our forecast is still around $2 billion to $2.3 billion of cash in the balance sheet.

So really the couple of things that we would do if there's additional cash is really look at continuing the strength in the balance sheet, pay down our debt. We have a debt maturing here in May, about $1 billion, that we intend to pay down with cash. So, continuing to strengthen the balance sheet. Second thing we do is look to return it to our shareholders. I'm sure there are a couple of different mechanisms we could do that. And the third thing we would do is, as always, look for optionality depending on where we're at on the commodity price, whether our plays are a success or not, deepening some of our positions in some of the plays or looking for some other opportunity. But that will be very opportunistic in those areas.

Arthur Grayfer - CIBC

So if I take the order that you provided those views, as the order they would occur, so debt repayment and then perhaps a dividend or a share buyback program advance in front of an acquisition?

David Hill

Yes, I wouldn't put them in that order. Those are just the things we consider. I wouldn't put them in order. They are just there in my mind stacked up that way.

Arthur Grayfer - CIBC

Okay. I just wanted to get a little color on that. Any other questions from here? Basically another question I have is on the DJ. There it's really an interesting opportunity, like you mentioned stacked pay, there's numerous sands in the Niobrara, and some of the competitors in the area are testing increased density pilots, 32 wells section and so forth. Do you see the opportunity in your lands and what do you think about that opportunity growing with what you have?

David Hill

Yes, absolutely. Like I said, it's a play that just keeps us down if you look back at its history. So, it's the infield development potential, has been expanding over the years where we've been able to go to five wells per section, seven wells per section vertically. And now with the ability to do leased-line drilling with offset acreage, the Colorado Oil and Gas Commission has allowed that a couple of years back where we're able to go with offsetting, operators agree to drill it along leased lines, along section lines, and then unlock that.

So now the opportunity is, it's pretty well developed field, so you got to know where your wellbores are, but as the play expands, as there's lots of opportunity to look at stacked horizontals within the Niobrara section as well as stacking into another, adding another horizontal into the Codell which is right below the Niobrara. And there's some up-hole opportunities in other shales as well that others are looking at, gathering data and assessing, [indiscernible], Sharon Springs and a few others.

Arthur Grayfer - CIBC

So do you view – does that suggest that the inventory that you have in your presentation now can conceivably go, not just in the DJ but in any other place as well?

David Hill

Yes, I mean technology is amazing, and the more we understand these reservoirs and look at optimal efficiency and development, looking at the fracture, hydraulic fracture efficiencies, lot more insights are being gained to maximise recovery. Many companies aren't satisfied with the 5% or 10% recovery in the liquids-rich play, so we're looking – all of us are looking at ways to optimize our spacing, our fracture intensity in these plays. So yes, there's usually more upside than downside.

Arthur Grayfer - CIBC

So I'm going to ask one last question, it's probably not a fair question, so what do you think of the TMS, is it going to work [indiscernible]?

David Hill

We've been taking a really hard look at it here in the last couple of months and I think we have a great position in the play and the wells are responding pretty much in line with reservoir properties. And it's the variability that we're in the early looking at the variability, and that variability early on was thought to be attributed to maybe play content, to stress and few other things, and when you really unpack it, there was a lot of variability in the completion design. And I think as all the plays have moved forward on completion design and liquid rich plays, we're all learning how to think about optimizing our completions in these liquid rich plays, whether it's the stage spacing and the amount of clusters per stage, how many perforations per cluster, it is a science and a little bit of art with it, and I think where we're landing as an industry there in the TMS is right now, if we can just continue to see that performance, we'll be really happy.

Arthur Grayfer - CIBC

Okay, great. Thank you very much for your time.

David Hill

Yes, thank you.

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