10-Year Treasury Trading Range

Includes: TYD, TYO
by: Richard Shaw

PIMCO predicts that the 10-year Treasury will trade between 3.50% and 4.25% over the near future. It is currently approximately at 4.00%. Given its current approximate 8.4 year duration, PIMCO's yield prediction of plus 25 basis points to down 50 basis points translates to an approximate price swing from minus 2.1% to plus 4.2% for the bond.

Here is a chart of the 10-year Treasury yield since 1953 on a monthly basis for perspective, including indications of periods of recession (the gray area):

Disclosure: No positions