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The goal of this article is to help you, the investor, more easily find authors that have made profitable predictions, both in the short and long run, so that you can focus your time on authors that are statistically more likely to be correct. Past successes are no guarantee of future success, so do your own research too!

This is my first attempt at what I hope will become a regular article summarizing the top performing articles and authors on Seeking Alpha.

Best Performing Authors & Articles - Periods ending 1/25/2014

NOTE: Please double check any values before making any decisions using them.

Authors & Articles are grouped into five time based categories, articles are additionally split into long and short positions.

Article must be about one or more symbols. Articles must be tagged as Long or Short, but not both. Articles will not be eligible for a particular category until the full time period has elapsed.

  • Established date is the first full trading day following the publication of the article; for articles published before 7:30 AM Eastern Time on a trading day this is the day the article was published. We use that day's Open price for our % Gain calculation.
  • The first number in % Gain represents the largest percentage gain that could have been made assuming you bought at open on the established date and sold at the highest close price during the timespan. The number in parenthesis is the percentage gain had you closed your position at the end of the timespan: 3 days, 7 days, 28 days, 90 days or 365 days depending on the section.

The goal behind establishing our position at open and closing the position at the end of the day is twofold: one is to make all of the calculations be on equal footing. Two is because buying at the daily low and selling at the daily high isn't realistic, by using opening and closing prices we establish a pattern that anyone can probably repeat with a small margin of error.

Author Ratings are calculated using a Bayesian rating algorithm; it's almost the same one found at the bottom of the IMDB Top 250 page. The Overall Gain/Loss % is used when calculating the Authors' rating, not their overall best Gain %.

365 Day

Articles are eligible for ~2 calendar years (730 days) from the calculated position established date. All articles an author has published in the last two years are used to calculate the author's overall ranking.

Top Authors

Best Performing Authors

Rating Author Overall Best Gain % Overall G/L % Average G/L % Gain Total % Loss Total %
189.82 Nick Butcher (4) 1598.55% 1325.72% 331.43% 1325.72% 0%
149.87 Joe Gantoss (6) 1493.03% 1345.82% 224.30% 1373.49% -27.67%
135.41 FOHC Resources (15) 3255.86% 2434.41% 162.29% 2601.93% -167.52%
112.85 David Allen (4) 1108.36% 786.96% 196.74% 842.33% -55.37%
109.40 Alpine Analytics (4) 802.13% 762.81% 190.70% 762.81% 0%
108.06 Michael Fuller (6) 1287.20% 969.50% 161.58% 969.50% 0%
92.65 Red Acre Investments (15) 2385.12% 1664.63% 110.98% 2137.12% -472.49%
84.44 Rich Rezny (7) 907.43% 841.38% 120.20% 841.38% 0%
83.20 Jay Unni (5) 799.36% 662.57% 132.51% 677.49% -14.92%
74.87 PropThink (43) 5492.28% 3440.82% 80.02% 4050.47% -609.65%

Top 5 Long and Short Article Positions

Best One Year Long Predictions

Symbol Established % Gain Author Article
AAMRQ 12/14/2012 1533.33% (1418.66%) Vaughn Cordle, CFA Article
FNMA 12/26/2012 1469.23% (1100.00%) Matt Schilling Article
FMCC 6/26/2012 1400.00% (500.00%) David Sims Article
AAMRQ 7/31/2012 1243.13% (1056.86%) CapitalCube Article
AAMRQ 7/16/2012 1168.51% (851.85%) Jacob Steinberg Article

Best One Year Short Predictions

Symbol Established % Gain Author Article
GWBU 5/21/2012 100.00% (99.37%) Isaac Silbermann Article
GWBU 5/22/2012 100.00% (99.36%) Isaac Silbermann Article
SEFE 5/3/2012 99.33% (99.33%) The GeoTeam Article
PCXCQ 2/7/2012 99.23% (99.01%) The Sane Investor Article
OREO 5/14/2012 98.95% (98.95%) Isaac Silbermann Article

90 Day

Articles are eligible for 180 calendar days from the calculated position established date. All articles an author has published in the last year are used to calculate the author's overall ranking.

Top Authors

Best Performing Authors

Rating Author Overall Best Gain % Overall G/L % Average G/L % Gain Total % Loss Total %
86.58 Randy Carlson (10) 1255.55% 1122.55% 112.26% 1185.55% -63.00%
77.36 Forward Looking Guru (11) 1202.39% 1080.08% 98.19% 1095.29% -15.21%
63.29 Vaughn Cordle, CFA (4) 511.15% 440.04% 110.01% 440.04% 0%
51.25 Charles Fox (13) 984.45% 817.07% 62.85% 859.21% -42.14%
47.08 Genesis Housing (8) 524.96% 514.93% 64.37% 514.93% 0%
41.93 Southwest Michigan Trader (4) 457.49% 290.50% 72.62% 302.28% -11.78%
40.52 Jonathan Verenger (25) 1659.21% 1131.69% 45.27% 1304.70% -173.01%
39.94 Toro Investment Partners (6) 508.40% 356.42% 59.40% 394.61% -38.19%
35.42 Joe Springer (5) 413.50% 280.40% 56.08% 312.53% -32.13%
34.24 Penny Stock Realist (6) 374.58% 305.20% 50.87% 305.20% 0%

Top 5 Long and Short Article Positions

Best Three Month Long Predictions

Symbol Established % Gain Author Article
PLUG 10/11/2013 559.42% (559.42%) Charles Fox Article
AAMRQ 9/6/2013 267.86% (205.40%) Vaughn Cordle, CFA Article
CYTR 10/14/2013 248.27% (248.27%) Fusion Research Article
CYTR 10/17/2013 243.82% (212.34%) Len Zehr Article

Best Three Month Short Predictions

Symbol Established % Gain Author Article
SOUL 7/30/2013 95.39% (94.85%) Infitialis Article
SOUL 7/30/2013 95.39% (94.85%) Christopher Drose Article
BLUF 8/27/2013 90.72% (90.72%) AquaResearch Article
BLUF 8/12/2013 86.62% (86.62%) Christopher Drose Article
WILD 8/23/2013 82.60% (78.26%) Brett Wilson Article

28 Day

Articles are eligible for 56 calendar days from the calculated position established date. All articles an author has published in the last year are used to calculate the author's overall ranking.

Top Authors

Best Performing Authors

Rating Author Overall Best Gain % Overall G/L % Average G/L % Gain Total % Loss Total %
29.25 Forward Looking Guru (12) 495.10% 435.70% 36.31% 449.37% -13.67%
28.09 IP Hawk (4) 323.73% 193.61% 48.40% 213.46% -19.85%
27.56 Zvi Bar (11) 801.55% 382.86% 34.81% 431.31% -48.45%
26.34 Southwest Michigan Trader (4) 203.95% 181.41% 45.35% 182.18% -0.77%
24.58 Long Term Bio (4) 284.34% 169.08% 42.27% 172.41% -3.33%
23.57 Vaughn Cordle, CFA (4) 161.99% 161.99% 40.50% 161.99% 0%
19.08 Genesis Housing (8) 222.24% 206.89% 25.86% 206.89% 0%
19.01 Infitialis (4) 174.16% 130.05% 32.51% 130.44% -0.39%
18.61 Randy Carlson (10) 320.11% 238.94% 23.89% 250.18% -11.24%
17.53 Steven Breazzano (4) 144.13% 119.71% 29.93% 124.25% -4.54%

Top 5 Long and Short Article Positions

Best One Month Long Predictions

Symbol Established % Gain Author Article
CANN 12/11/2013 352.09% (352.09%) Alan Brochstein Article
RNN 12/23/2013 240.42% (134.04%) Long Term Bio Article
PLUG 12/12/2013 150.00% (150.00%) The Focused Stock Trader Article
ELTP 12/19/2013 125.00% (125.00%) Matthew David Article
EPZM 12/20/2013 96.73% (82.47%) Matija Snuderl Article

Best One Month Short Predictions

Symbol Established % Gain Author Article
NNRX 12/11/2013 56.66% (35.00%) Christopher Drose Article
OCZ 12/2/2013 54.54% (54.54%) Ashraf Eassa Article
MDDD 12/12/2013 54.00% (-10.00%) Penny Stock Realist Article
GACR 12/19/2013 53.84% (53.84%) SkyTides Article
TGRO 12/17/2013 28.00% (14.00%) Penny Stock Realist Article

7 Day

Articles are eligible for 14 calendar days from the calculated position established date. All articles an author has published in the last year are used to calculate the author's overall ranking.

Top Authors

Best Performing Authors

Rating Author Overall Best Gain % Overall G/L % Average G/L % Gain Total % Loss Total %
18.02 Andy Zelenak (4) 247.92% 123.17% 30.79% 130.00% -6.83%
13.92 IP Hawk (4) 115.73% 94.46% 23.62% 120.00% -25.54%
10.27 Arthur Porcari (8) 159.40% 110.02% 13.75% 126.45% -16.43%
9.64 Biotech Breakthroughs (4) 195.93% 64.48% 16.12% 67.40% -2.92%
9.26 Wonderful Wizard (7) 97.15% 89.55% 12.79% 95.65% -6.10%
8.85 Jay Soloff (4) 58.94% 58.94% 14.74% 58.94% 0%
8.77 John Deamer (5) 76.89% 67.16% 13.43% 73.56% -6.40%
8.22 Lazarus Investment Partners (11) 147.31% 112.11% 10.19% 132.84% -20.73%
8.10 Alfred Little (5) 68.15% 61.82% 12.36% 61.82% 0%
7.79 D. Mero (15) 200.39% 137.16% 9.14% 180.74% -43.58%

Top 5 Long and Short Article Positions

Best Seven Day Long Predictions

Symbol Established % Gain Author Article
NUIN 1/15/2014 45.85% (45.85%) Richard Greulich Jr. Article
CMCI 1/16/2014 34.14% (26.82%) Andrew Granowitz Article
ICPT 1/16/2014 23.83% (23.83%) Nathan Gantz Article
SCTY 1/14/2014 21.80% (19.12%) Marsha Robe Article
CAPR 1/13/2014 20.00% (20.00%) Peter Geschek Article

Best Seven Day Short Predictions

Symbol Established % Gain Author Article
AMD 1/17/2014 12.77% (12.77%) Nathan Brooks Article
PUGE 1/16/2014 12.50% (12.50%) Christopher Drose Article
MR 1/17/2014 10.21% (10.21%) Ottoman Bay Article
HLF 1/17/2014 8.66% (8.66%) Quoth the Raven Article
HLF 1/17/2014 8.66% (8.66%) Matt Stewart Article
Source: The Best Performers Of Seeking Alpha: Vol. 1