Cramer's Mad Money - Lumpy Versus Linear (1/28/14)

by: Miriam Metzinger

Stocks discussed on the in-depth session of Jim Cramer's Mad Money TV Program, Tuesday January 28.

Lumpy and Linear: Seagate (NASDAQ:STX), Ethan Allen (NYSE:ETH), United Technologies (NYSE:UTX), Honeywell (NYSE:HON), D.R. Horton (NYSE:DHI), Procter & Gamble (NYSE:PG), Kimberly Clark (NYSE:KMB)

If management on conference calls use the word "lumpy," chances are, the stock is going lower. Lumpiness was seen in sales of Apple's iPhone, Seagate's (STX) sales and Ethan Allen (ETH). IBM (NYSE:IBM) represents lumpiness. Companies that are linear, are not at all lumpy and whose stocks are likely to go higher are Procter & Gamble (PG), Kimberly Clark (KMB), United Technologies (UTX), Honeywell (HON) and D.R. Horton (DHI).

Google (NASDAQ:GOOG), Netflix (NASDAQ:NFLX), Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL), Kodak (NYSE:KODK), Rosetta (NASDAQ:ROSE), Anadarko Petroleum (NYSE:APC), EOG Resources (NYSE:EOG)

The Dow climbed 90 points on Tuesday, despite weak durable goods and housing numbers. Google's (GOOG) decline provided a buying opportunity; the reason for its fall seemed to have little to do with the fundamentals. Netflix (NFLX) also dipped, but there didn't seem to be a good reason why, especially after its strong quarter a week ago. However, Apple (AAPL) dropped for good reason. Management should have tempered expectations, and the bullish sentiment had gotten out of control. Carl Icahn is suggesting Apple do something with its cash, but management seems committed to a merely moderate buyback. The momentum investors want to see new products from Apple. Since its quarter was tepid, Apple got dinged.

Cramer took some calls:

Eastman Kodak (KODK): Cramer says he isn't sure how to value this stock, and needs to do more work on it.

Rosetta (ROSE) is not as good as Anadarko Petroleum (APC) and EOG Resources (EOG), which are both down.

CEO Interview: Scott Wine, Polaris (NYSE:PII)

Polaris (PII), producer of snowmobiles, ATVs, accessories and apparel has gained 51% since Cramer got behind it in 2012. However, the stock has been slammed recently and is 18 points off its high. The street was disappointed in its earnings report. Revenue increased 28%, but gross margins were not strong and its guidance was cautious. Cramer notes PII consistently gives conservative guidance. CEO Scott Wine said business is in "incredibly solid shape." While the company has lost some market share in ATVs, Wine expects to regain share in the coming year. The company has a joint venture in India and its business in the Asia Pacific region is growing. Its defense business was affected somewhat by sequester, but PII continues to innovate in this area. Cramer likes PII because it has "strong brands and sustainable growth."

Where Are Stocks Headed? Stocks discussed: Petrobras (NYSE:PBR), AK Steel (NYSE:AKS), Timken (NYSE:TKR)

Carly Garner, technical analyst at does not think the charts paint a bright picture for stocks. She sees complacency, and the relative strength index is in overbought territory. It peaked at 78, and Garner warns anything above 70 is a red flag. The S&P 500 could drop to as low as 1755, and after that, it could fall to 1670. This would be a 6.8% correction from current levels or 10% from its highs. Carolyn Boroden of is more optimistic about the S&P 500. If it can pass the hurdle between 1808 to 1823, it might be smooth sailing.

Garner thinks that the Dow is also headed down, and her view of the Nasdaq is even more grim. There have only been 3 other times since 1989 that the Nasdaq was this overbought based on the RSI, and each time, there was a dramatic decline. Cramer would listen to Garner's sobering advice, if only to understand that technical investors are likely to sell at the first sign of a decline.

Cramer took some calls:

Petrobras (PBR) " Brazilian and Brazil equals sell."

AK Steel (AKS), Timken (TKR): AK Steel seems to be making a comeback. Timken (TKR) is a holding in Cramer's charitable trust, and he admits it has been a real loser.


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