Exxon Mobil Corp. (NYSE:XOM) is set to report FQ4 2013 earnings before the market opens on Thursday, January 30th. Exxon Mobil is a multinational oil corporation based in Texas which boasts the third highest annual revenue in the world. Exxon Mobil is also the nation's largest producer of natural gas. With the Polar Vortex now in the rear view mirror, many analysts are giving partial blame from the low holiday sales at brick and mortar retailers to the extremely cold temperatures in late December. The extreme temperatures and high demand for propane to heat homes could have an impact on Exxon Mobil's FQ4 earnings. Here's what investors are expecting XOM to report Thursday.
The information below is derived from data submitted to the Estimize.com platform by a set of Buy Side and Independent analyst contributors.
The current Wall Street consensus expectation is for Exxon Mobil to report $1.90 EPS and $114.876B revenue, while the current Estimize.com consensus from 11 Buy Side and Independent contributing analysts is $1.95 EPS and $112.496B revenue. This quarter the buy-side as represented by the Estimize.com community is expecting Exxon Mobil to beat the Street on both profit but miss on revenue.
The magnitude of the difference between the Wall Street and Estimize consensus numbers often identifies opportunities to take advantage of expectations that may not have been priced into the market. In this case we are seeing a moderate differential between the 2 groups' forecasts.
By tapping into a wider range of contributors including hedge-fund analysts, asset managers, independent research shops, students, and non professional investors Estimize has created a data set that is up to 69.5% more accurate than Wall Street, but more importantly it does a better job of representing the market's actual expectations. It has been confirmed by an independent academic study from Rice University that stock prices tend to react with a more strongly associated degree to the expectation benchmark from Estimize than from the Wall Street consensus.
The distribution of estimates published by analysts on the Estimize.com platform range from $1.83 to $2.05 EPS and $105.000B to $116.477B in revenues. This quarter we're seeing a larger distribution of estimates compared to previous quarters.
The size of the distribution of estimates relative to previous quarters often signals whether or not the market is confident that it has priced in the expected earnings already. A wider distribution of estimates signaling less agreement in the market, which could mean greater volatility post earnings.
Throughout the quarter we have seen downward EPS revisions and upward revenue revisions from both Wall Street and Estimize. Wall Street lowered its EPS consensus from $2.00 to $2.90 and Estimize reduced its own from $2.00 to $1.95. On revenue Wall Street raised its forecast from $112.127B to $114.876B while Estimize expectations also increased from $109.571B to $112.496B. Timeliness is correlated with accuracy and the two groups' revisions seem to be moving in the same direction going into the report.
The analyst with the highest estimate confidence rating this quarter is LJPRtrader, who projects $1.97 EPS and $111.861B in revenue. Estimate confidence ratings are calculated through algorithms developed by deep quantitative research which looks at correlations between analyst track records and tendencies as they relate to future accuracy. In this case, LJPRtrader is in agreement with the Estimize community that XOM will beat on profit but come up short on revenue.
This quarter analysts on the Estimize.com platform are expecting XOM to outperform Wall Street expectations on profit but come up short on revenue. Thursday before the market opens we will see how the world's third largest company reports compared to the expectations from the buy side.