The truth is that no investor (at least one without a fully functional crystal ball) knows what's going to happen with a particular stock/industry/sector. One can only come up with a plausible set of scenarios, try to assign reasonable probabilities to those outcomes, and then determine if the weighted average of those outcomes is skewed in favor of a long/short position (if they net out, then it's worth just staying away).
As a former Cirrus Logic (NASDAQ:CRUS) bear when the stock was in the $30+ range, I found myself attracted to Cirrus in the teens/low $20 range as I had believed that the stock had, along with its business, reached a cyclical trough and was set to rebound...
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