Seeking Alpha
Dividend investing, growth, momentum, research analyst
Profile| Send Message|
( followers)

This monthly global investments report tallied results from here verified by Yahoo Finance for dividend paying American depository receipts small, mid & large cap shares (ADSs) as of market closing prices January 30 and compared those results against analyst mean target prices one year hence. The comparison found seven Global firms projecting 34.09% to 198.10% price upsides by next January.

Santander Mexico Fincl Gp SAB deCV (ADR) (NYSE:BSMX) a foreign regional bank in the financial sector delivered the lower 34.09% upside estimate. At the top, Companhia Siderurgica Nacional (NYSE:SID) a steel & iron firm in the basic materials sector January global dogs. Five more global dogs bracketed between those two showed 42.5% to 69.46% price upsides. Two global dogs back in the pack marked 9.45% and 10.09% price upsides.

The chart above used one year mean target price set by brokerage analysts matched against January 30 closing price to compare ten global stocks showing the highest upside price potential into 2015 out of 20 selected by yield. The number of analysts providing price estimates was noted after the name for each stock. Three to nine analysts were considered optimal for a valid mean target price estimate.

This report presumed yield (dividend / price) dividend dog methodology applied to global stocks and compared that list side by side with the Dow industrial index leaders. Below, the Arnold global selections for January were disclosed step by step.

Dog Metrics Measured Ten Top Global Stocks

Ten top global dividend stocks that showed the biggest dividend yields January 30 per Yahoo Finance data represented five sectors: technology; financial; basic materials; utilities; services. Top dog, Oi SA [Brazil] (NYSE:OIBR) was best of two technology sector dogs which included Portugal Telecom S.A. (NYSE:PT) in tenth place.

The best of five financial firms, Administradora de Fondos de Pensiones Provida S.A. [Chile] (NYSE:PVD) placed second. The other four financials placed fifth, sixth, seventh, and ninth: Alto Palermo S.A. [Argentina] (NASDAQ:APSA); Banco Bradesco S.A [Brazil] (NYSE:BBD); IRSA Inversiones y Representaciones S.A. [Argentina] (NYSE:IRS); Santander Mexico Fincl Gp SAB deCV ADR [Mexico] .

One basic materials representative, Companhia de Saneamento Basico do Estado de Sao Paulo [Brazil](NYSE:SBS) placed third. A lone utility, Companhia Energetica de Minas Gerais repr non vtg pfd [Brazil] (NYSE:CIG) was fourth and one service firm, Hong Kong Television Network Ltd [Hong Kong] (NASDAQ:HKTV) was eighth to complete the top ten global dogs by yield.

Dividend vs. Price Results Compared to Dow Dogs

The graph below of relative strengths of the top ten Global dogs by yield as of market close 1/30/2014 compared to those of the Dow industrials index was prepared to show projected annual dividend history from $10,000 invested as $1k in each of the ten highest yielding stocks along with the total single share price of those ten stocks with the data points shown in green for price and blue for dividends.

(click to enlarge)

Actionable Conclusion (1): Global Dogs Cratered While Dow Dogs Dithered Up

Global dividend payers as of January 30 showed more dividend from $10k invested as $1k in each of the top ten stocks as aggregate single share price of those ten crashed. Dividend hopped up at a rate of over 26% after December while total single share price dropped 29% for that period.

Conflict infected the Dow dog pack as projected annual dividend from $10k invested as $1K in each of the top ten increased nearly 2.5% since December. Aggregate single share price also increased nearly 6.3% to confirm the dithering. The Dow dogs overbought condition in which aggregate single share price of the ten exceeded projected annual dividend from $1k invested in each of the ten grew some. The overhang was $125 or 33% in August, and expanded to $161 or 43% for September, shrank down to $111 or 30% for October, expanded again to $140 or 38% in November, closed a bit to $111 or 29% for December, and widened to $145 or 38% in January. Most of this dither up was triggered by Procter & Gamble (NYSE:PG) replacing Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT) at the tail end of the ten Dow dogs this month.

To quantify the top dog rankings, analyst mean price target estimates provide a "market sentiment" gauge of upside potential and was added to the simple high yield "dog" metric used to dig out bargains.

Actionable Conclusion (2): Wall St. Wizard Wisdom Weighed 34% 1 yr. Net Gain from Top 20 Global Dogs

Top 20 dogs on the Global stock list were graphed below to show relative strengths by dividend and price as of January 30, 2014 and those projected by analyst mean price target estimates to the same date in 2015.

A hypothetical $1000 investment in each equity was divided by the current share price to find the number of shares purchased. The shares number was then multiplied by projected annual per share dividend amounts to find the dividend return. Thereafter the analyst mean target price was used to gauge the stock price upsides and net gains including dividends less broker fees as of 2014.

Historic prices and actual dividends paid from $20,000 invested as $1k in each of the highest yielding stocks and the aggregate single share prices of those twenty stocks divided by 2 created data points for 2013. Projections based on estimated increases in dividend amounts from $1000 invested in the twenty highest yielding stocks and aggregate one year analyst target share prices from Yahoo Finance divided by 2 created the 2014 data points green for price and blue for dividend.

(click to enlarge)

Yahoo projected a 6.2% lower dividend from $10K invested in this group while aggregate single share price was projected to increase by over 16.3% in the coming year. The number of analysts contributing to the mean target price estimate for each stock was noted in the next to the last column on the charts. Three to nine analysts was considered optimal for a valid projection estimate. Estimates provided by one analyst were not applied (n/a).

A beta (risk) ranking for each stock was provided in the far right column on the above chart. A beta of 1 meant the stock's price would move with the market. Less than 1 showed lower than market movement. Higher than 1 showed greater than market movement. A negative beta number indicated the degree of a stock price movement opposite of market direction.

Actionable Conclusion (3): Analysts Forecast 2015 Global DiviDogs to Net 7% to 131%

Five of the ten top dividend yielding global dogs were verified as being among the nine gainers for the coming year based on analyst 1 year target prices. So this month the dog strategy for this collection as graded by Wall St. wizards was 55% accurate.

Nine probable profit generating trades were revealed by Thompson/First Call in Yahoo Finance for 2015:

Companhia Siderurgica Nacional netted $2028.52, based on dividends plus mean target price estimate from five analysts less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to volatility 87% greater than the market as a whole.

Oi SA netted $884.19 based on dividends plus a mean target price estimate from three analysts less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to volatility 77% more than the market as a whole.

IRSA Inversiones y Representaciones S.A. (Argentina) Global Dep. Rcpt. netted $723.15 based on dividends plus a mean target price estimate from two analysts less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to volatility 95% more than the market as a whole.

Companhia de Saneamento Basico do Estado de Sao Paulo netted $672.56 based on estimates from two analysts plus dividends less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to volatility 62% more than the market as a whole.

Ecopetrol SA (NYSE:EC) netted $485.46 based on estimates from thirteen analysts plus dividends less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to volatility 37% less than the market as a whole.

Banco Bradesco S.A. netted $435.32 based on estimates from seven analysts plus dividends less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to volatility 60% less than the market as a whole.

Santander Mexico Fincl Gp SAB deCV netted $415,58 based on estimates from five analysts plus dividends less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to volatility 98% less than the market as a whole.

Fly Leasing Ltd. (NYSE:FLY) netted $139.61 based on estimates from six analysts plus dividends less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to volatility 33% less than the market as a whole.

Telefonica Brasil SA (NYSE:VIV) netted $137.12, based on dividend plus mean target price estimates from nine analysts less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to volatility 1% less than the market as a whole.

Average net gain in dividend and price was 65.8% on $9k invested as $1k in each of these nine Global dogs. This gain estimate was subject to average volatility 10% more than the market as a whole.

Net gain and loss estimates above did not factor-in any foreign or domestic tax problems resulting from distributions. Consult your tax advisor regarding the source and consequences of "dividends" from any investment.

Stocks listed above were suggested only as possible starting points for your Global dog dividend stock purchase research process. These were not recommendations.

Disclaimer: This article is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed to constitute investment advice. Nothing contained herein shall constitute a solicitation, recommendation or endorsement to buy or sell any security. Prices and returns on equities in this article except as noted are listed without consideration of fees, commissions, taxes, penalties, or interest payable due to purchasing, holding, or selling same.

Disclosure: I am long CSCO, CVX, GE, INTC, MCD, MSFT, PFE, T, VZ. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.