Roger Nusbaum submits: I had what could have been an original thought but then I saw Barry touched on the same thing on his blog: Why haven't the lower gas prices helped retail sales? The current numbers look bad. Prices at the pump have been lower long enough that they should have helped, that is if it was going to matter. Maybe it will matter next month?
I have been in the a recession-is-likely camp for a while out of respect for how most cycles work, and the persistent, albeit mild, inversion of the yield curve.
I don't think an expectation that an economic cycle will have a normal conclusion should be particularly surprising.
Lately I have written a lot of posts about things like currency products, ways to reduce volatility and add yield. A heavier tilt to this part of the market will hopefully make a recession or down turn easier to endure.