Expect More Hawkishness From The Fed

by: David Andrew Taylor

I read two write-ups in the Dismal Scientist ($) regarding the Fed and interest rates today. The one that stands out the most is the Fed's Moskow suggesting inflation weights are pushing higher in the near-term. Seems he feels that inflation is more likely to push higher sooner. I think I just echoed that piece in something I just wrote about with oil.

The article had this to say:

Moskow continued to opine that inflation is too high, and that the risks to inflation remain higher than the risks to growth. Indeed, Moskow is fairly optimistic about the prospects for growth, especially with the labor force creating jobs at a pace that is above his view of potential job growth. Moreover, he stated "we do not see the slowing in housing markets spilling over into a more prolonged period of weakness in the U.S. economy overall...on balance 95% of the economy outside of housing remains on good footing."

As for inflation fears, I see a little more of this being derived from the overall strong elements within the economy, as well as the push in labor costs. The push higher in labor costs may actually be my biggest concern with inflation. As our economy moves ahead in the next year, wages are starting to show signs of pushing higher and higher. The spill-over of higher prices are finally catching up inside paychecks.

I just don't see the Fed being done going into next year.