Another Disappointing Jobs Report: Only 113K New Jobs, But The Unemployment Rate Slips To 6.6%

Includes: DIA, IWM, QQQ, SPY
by: Doug Short

Here is the lead paragraph from the Employment Situation Summary released this morning by the Bureau of Labor Statistics:

Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 113,000 in January, and the unemployment rate was little changed at 6.6 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Employment grew in construction, manufacturing, wholesale trade, and mining....

In 2013, total nonfarm payroll temployment growth averaged 194,000 per month.

Today's report of 113K new nonfarm jobs was well below the forecast, which was for 185K. And the unemployment rate of 6.6% came in below the expectation of no change at 6.7%.

The popular financial press, rarely at a loss for an explanation, blames bad weather in January for today's weak new jobs number (e.g., CNBC and Reuters), even though weather during the survey week was seasonally normal.

The unemployment peak for the current cycle was 10.0% in October 2009. The chart here shows the pattern of unemployment, recessions and both the nominal and real (inflation-adjusted) price of the S&P Composite since 1948.

Unemployment is usually a lagging indicator that moves inversely with equity prices (top chart). Note the increasing peaks in unemployment in 1971, 1975 and 1982. The inverse pattern becomes clearer when viewed against real (inflation-adjusted) S&P Composite, with its successively lower bear market bottoms. The mirror relationship seems to be repeating itself with the most recent and previous bear markets.

Click to enlarge

The second chart shows the unemployment rate for the civilian population unemployed 27 weeks and over. This rate has fallen significantly since its 4.4% all-time peak in April 2010. The latest number is 2.3%, for the second month below the previous peak in 1983. This measure gives an alternative perspective on the relative severity of economic conditions.

Click to enlarge

The next chart is an overlay of the unemployment rate and the employment-population ratio. This is the ratio of the number of employed people to the total civilian population age 16 and over.

Click to enlarge

The inverse correlation between the two series is obvious. We can also see the accelerating growth of women in the workforce and two-income households in the early 1980's. Following the end of the last recession, the employment population has three times bounced at 58.2% — a level that harkens back to the 58.1% ratio of March 1953, when Eisenhower was president of a country of one-income households, the Korean War was still underway, and rumors were circulating that soft drinks would soon be sold in cans.

The latest ratio of 58.8% is at the top of a narrow range (58.2% to 58.8%) since the end of the last recession.

For a confirming view of the secular change the US is experiencing on the employment front, the next chart illustrates the labor force participation rate. To two decimal places we're at 62.96%, fractionally off the interim low of 62.76% set in October of last year. Today's level was first seen in April 1978.

Click to enlarge

The employment-population ratio and participation rate will be interesting to watch going forward. The first wave of Boomers will continue be a downward force on this ratio. The oldest of them were eligible for early retirement when the Great Recession began, and the Boomer transition to the retirement will accelerate over the next several years.

What is the average length of unemployment? As the next chart illustrates, we are perhaps seeing a paradigm shift — the result of global outsourcing and efficiencies of technology. The post-recession duration of unemployment has remains disturbingly high at 35.4 weeks, although that's off the 40.7-week all-time high in late 2011.

Click to enlarge

The last chart is one of my favorites from Bill McBride at Calculated Risk. It shows the job losses from the peak employment month since World War II. Note the addition of the dotted-line alternative for the current cycle, which shows unemployment excluding the temporary census hiring.

Click to enlarge

The start date of 1948 was determined by the earliest monthly unemployment figures collected by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The best source for the historic data is the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.