In the wake of the great financial crisis it can sometimes be difficult for Intelligent Investors to find a solid bank in which to invest, because they require specific achievements over the historical period. Many investors may simply decide to throw out the worst years with the rationale that they are outliers that shouldn't be considered when evaluating the company's prospects, but doing so would involve speculation. We don't know whether the financial crisis will happen again, but we do know that if it does, we can expect to see similar results as we did before. By continuing to require the same standards for the historical period, Intelligent Investors are able to widdle down banks to only those with the best financial position, and then they are able to determine an intrinsic value to get a sense of whether the company is a good investment. In addition, a company must have strong financial statements to prove that it is stable enough for Intelligent Investors. This is best done by utilizing a systematic approach to analysis that will provide investors with a sense of how a specific company compares to another company. By using the ModernGraham method one can review a company's historical accomplishments and determine an intrinsic value that can be compared across industries. What follows is a specific look at how People's United Financial (PBCT) fares in the ModernGraham valuation model.
Defensive Investor - must pass all 6 of the following tests: Score = 4/6
- Adequate Size of Enterprise - market capitalization of at least $2 billion - PASS
- Earnings Stability - positive earnings per share for at least 10 straight years - FAIL
- Dividend Record - has paid a dividend for at least 10 straight years - PASS
- Earnings Growth - earnings per share has increased by at least 1/3 over the last 10 years using 3-year averages at beginning and end of period - PASS
- Moderate PEmg ratio - PEmg is less than 20 - FAIL
- Moderate Price to Assets - PB ratio is less than 2.5 or PB x PEmg is less than 50 - PASS
Enterprising Investor - must pass all 3 of the following tests or be suitable for a defensive investor: Score = 3/3
- Earnings Stability - positive earnings per share for at least 5 years - PASS
- Dividend Record - currently pays a dividend - PASS
- Earnings growth - EPSmg greater than 5 years ago - PASS
|MG Opinion||Fairly Valued|
|Value Based on 3% Growth||$8.82|
|Value Based on 0% Growth||$5.17|
|Market Implied Growth Rate||7.15%|
Balance Sheet - 9/30/2013
Earnings Per Share
Earnings Per Share - ModernGraham
People's United Financial is an excellent company for Enterprising Investors to keep on their watch list. Defensive Investors are not as interested, due to the high PEmg ratio and the lack of earnings stability over the ten-year historical period. Enterprising Investors should feel very comfortable with the company, and should go ahead with further research into whether it would be suitable for their individual portfolios. From a valuation standpoint, People's United has grown its EPSmg (normalized earnings) from $0.40 in 2009 to $0.61 for 2013. This level of growth supports the market's implied growth estimate of 7.15%, and the ModernGraham valuation model returns an intrinsic value that is within our safety margin of the market's current price, so the company would appear to be fairly valued. It should also be noted that this company has a strong dividend yield, which may be attractive to Enterprising Investors.
Disclaimer: The author did not hold a position in People's United Financial (PBCT) or any of the other companies listed in this article at the time of publication and had no intention of changing that position within the next 72 hours.