Great note this morning from the always informative David Rosenberg. Mr. Rosenberg notes something that we have highlighted in the past – China as a leading indicator. In this case, Mr. Rosenberg highlights China’s high leading correlation with commodities. Is China forecasting a decline in commodity prices? Rosenberg elaborates:
To very little fanfare, the Chinese stock market — the first index to turn around in late 2008 — has slipped into a bear market. It is down 15 % from the nearby high and 20% from last year’s interim peak. Why this is important is because the Shanghai index leads the CRB commodity spot price index by four months with a 72% correlation (and over an 80% correlation with the oil price). Don’t get us wrong — we are long-term secular commodity bulls; however, we have been agnostic this year from a tactical standpoint — never hurts to take profits after a double!
Source: Gluskin Sheff