Uranium Miners Analyst Watch: February Edition

by: Itinerant

(Editors' Note: This article covers micro-cap stocks. Please be aware of the risks associated with these stocks.)

Executive summary:

  • This is a report on analyst data for uranium miners.
  • Share prices and price targets have moved up slightly during the past month.
  • Ur-Energy and Energy Fuels appear most attractive according to analysts.


We are pleased to provide the second installment of our uranium miners analyst watch for the year 2014. As always in this series, our article will summarize our most recent data and make comparisons with targets and recommendations reported a month ago in our January edition.

As last month we are considering the following companies in alphabetical order for this update: Cameco (NYSE:CCJ), Denison Mines (NYSEMKT:DNN), Energy Fuels (NYSEMKT:UUUU), Fission Uranium (OTCQX:FCUUF), UEX Corp (OTCPK:UEXCF), Uranerz (NYSEMKT:URZ), Uranium Energy (NYSEMKT:UEC), Uranium Resources (NASDAQ:URRE) and Ur-Energy (NYSEMKT:URG).

And starting with this article we are adding Paladin Energy (OTCPK:PALAF) and Energy Resources of Australia (OTCPK:EGRAF) to our watch list.

We duly note that we source our data exclusively from Yahoo.com. Most companies considered for this article are covered by more analysts than reported in our table, but not all of them provide their data to our source website.

The table below summarizes our data. Grey columns represent data sourced directly from Yahoo.com, and light green colored columns represent processed data derived from this source data.

The first three columns list the company names, ticker symbols and share prices at the time of writing, followed by the change in share price since the last edition.

Price targets (low, median and high) are listed in the following three columns. These targets are followed by a column giving the number of analysts providing data to Yahoo.com and the mean recommendations given by these analysts ranging from 1.0 (strong buy) to 5.0 (sell). This concludes the data sourced directly from Yahoo.com.

The remaining columns list data points computed as percentages of the share prices at the time of writing as given in the third column. The column titled "median-price" gives the differences between the share prices and the median target prices. The column titled "high-low" gives the differences between the high and the low targets. The last four columns titled "target change" document the changes in price targets since the January report, with the last column giving the average changes over the low, median and high price targets.

N.B.: At present there is only data from one single analyst available on Yahoo.com for Uranium Resource and Fission Uranium.

N.B. Price targets for Energy Fuels, Fission Uranium, UEX Corp and Paladin Energy are given in Canadian Dollars and we have used a conversion rate of 0.91 for this report.

N.B. Price targets for Energy Resources of Australia are given in Australian Dollars and we have used a conversion rate of 0.90 for this report.

The first chart below is new to our format and illustrates the share price performance since last month's edition. On average share prices have increased by 1.9% across our watch list.

Gains and losses are fairly evenly distributed with UEX Corp logging a most impressive gain of 30.6% and Energy Resources of Australia dropping -28%.

The difference between the current share price and the median price target is listed in column "median-price". Under normal circumstances we would view a large value in this column as an indicator for the potential of disproportionate gains over the coming year.

Price targets for Energy Fuels continue to indicate the greatest potential by quite some margin. The median price target indicates 225% upside for this company. Denison Mines at the other end of the spectrum is trading a mere 8.5% under the median price target.

The results from column "high-low" in the table above are visualized in the next diagram. These values can be interpreted as a measure for divergence in analyst opinion. Note that for Fission Uranium and Uranium Resources targets from only one analyst were available and no measure for this category could be computed.

The greatest spread in price targets was recorded for Energy Fuels; the price target range was more than 100% of the current share price. Paladin Energy came second in this category which was no surprise considering a host of catalytic news releases during the past few weeks. Cameco is positioned at the end of this ranking; however, analysts' targets still differ by 40.9% of the current share price for this sector leader.

On average price targets have increased by 1.9% during the past month. The only two larger movements were recorded at the opposite ends of the spectrum: targets for UEX Corp went north by 28% equalizing the target cuts of last month; and targets for Energy Fuels were cut by -15.6%.

Unchanged from last month Ur-Energy is seen most favorably by analysts at present in terms of buy recommendations as documented in column "Recommendation" and the diagram below. Recommendations for Uranerz dropped a bit, while recommendations for Cameco, Denison Mines and most notably UEX Corp were upgraded. Energy Resources of Australia was receiving the least favourable rating at the time of writing.

Parting Shot

Uranium Miners have shown strength since the start of the year. We find encouragement in this performance, considering that the Uranium spot price has barely moved. Perhaps we are witnessing some initial stirrings of a sector recovery here?

Disclosure: I am long URZ. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.