V.F. Corp. (VFC) is set to report FQ4 2013 earnings before the market opens on Friday, February 14th. V.F. Corporation is an American clothing company that owns brands including Wrangler, Lee Jeans, The North Face, Chic, Timberland and Nautica. Holiday sales were weak across the board this year, which retailers have blamed on poor weather. Despite the broad reduction in December sales, some retailers have managed to report great quarters. Michael Kors (KORS) and Fossil (FOSL) both reported much better than expected earnings this month and their stock prices have taken off. On the other side of the coin Coach (COH) recently missed Wall Street's target for its quarterly earnings and Best Buy (BBY) announced much weaker than previously anticipated mid quarter sales. Here's how investors expect VFC to report Friday.
The information below is derived from data submitted to the Estimize.com platform by a set of Buy Side and Independent analyst contributors.
The current Wall Street consensus expectation is for VFC to report 84 cents EPS and $3.358B revenue while the current Estimize.com consensus from Buy Side and Independent contributing analysts is 85 cents EPS and $3.375B revenue. This quarter the buy-side as represented by the Estimize.com community is expecting VFC to beat Wall Street's expectations on both EPS and revenue.
Throughout the previous six quarters the consensus from Estimize.com has been more accurate than Wall Street in forecasting VFC's EPS every time and has been more accurate in predicting revenue twice. By tapping into a wider range of contributors including hedge fund analysts, asset managers, independent research shops, students and non professional investors Estimize has created a data set that is up to 69.5% more accurate than Wall Street, but more importantly it does a better job of representing the market's actual expectations.
The magnitude of the difference between the Wall Street and Estimize consensus numbers often identifies opportunities to take advantage of expectations that may not have been priced into the market. In this case we are seeing a smaller differential than usual for VFC.
The distribution of estimates published by analysts on the Estimize.com platform range from 75 cents to 90 cents EPS and $3.290B to $3.511B in revenues. This quarter we're seeing a larger distribution of estimates for VFC.
The size of the distribution of estimates relative to previous quarters often signals whether or not the market is confident that it has priced in the expected earnings already. A wider distribution of estimates signaling less agreement in the market could mean greater volatility post earnings.
Throughout the quarter the EPS consensus from Wall Street decreased from $3.47 to 96 cents while the Estimize EPS consensus fell from $1.69 to 85 cents. Over the same time period Wall Street raised its revenue expectation from $3.344B to $3.358B while the Estimize consensus began the period at $3.353B and shot to highs before falling back down to $3.375B. Timeliness is correlated with accuracy and falling analyst estimates going into a report are often a bearish indicator.
The analyst with the highest estimate confidence rating this quarter is shahlamagne who projects 90 cents EPS and $3.435B in revenue. In the Winter 2014 season shahlamagne is rated as the 376th best analyst and is ranked 67th overall among over 3,850 contributing analysts. Estimate confidence ratings are calculated through algorithms developed by deep quantitative research which looks at correlations between analyst track records and tendencies as they relate to future accuracy. In this case shahlamagne is making a bullish call expecting VFC to beat the Estimize consensus on both profit and revenue.
While holiday sales were weak this season, contributing analysts on the Estimize.com platform still expect VFC to beat the expectations from Wall Street. Although the Estimize community expects VFC's profit to be down significantly compared to last year, the community is also expecting V. F. Corp. to increase sales by 11% and continue to expand its apparel empire.