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Orchids Paper Products Company (NYSEMKT:TIS)

Q1 2010 Earnings Call

April 29, 2010 11:00 a.m. ET

Executives

Keith Schroeder - CFO

Bob Snyder - President and CEO

Analysts

Michael Taglich - Taglich Brothers

Operator

Good day, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the review of the first quarter 2010 results for Orchids Paper Products conference call. (Operator Instructions)

I would now like to turn the conference over to your host for today, Mr. Keith Schroeder, Chief Financial Officer. Please proceed.

Keith Schroeder

This is Orchids Paper Products Company's first quarter earnings conference call. I am Keith Schroeder and I'm the Chief Financial Officer of the company. I am pleased to be here today with Bob Snyder, our President and Chief Executive Officer. This morning we'll be discussing our financial results for the quarter which we released yesterday afternoon.

The agenda for today's call will be as follows. First, Bob will discuss our performance in the quarter and discuss various initiatives being worked on within the company. I will then provide a discussion of the results and some key financial metrics. Following that discussion, I will turn the call back over to Bob for some closing remarks. After Bob's remarks, we'll be happy to address any questions that you might have.

And with that, I'd like to inform you that statements made during this conference call (and other notes) that refer to past events and results are forward-looking statements and are made pursuant to the Safe Harbor provisions of the Securities Reform Act of 1995. Such statements involve risks and uncertainties that may cause actual results to differ materially from those set forth during this discussion.

Among other things, these risks and uncertainties include risks and assumptions described in Item 1A and Item 7 of our Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2009. The operating environment involves numerous known and unknown risks and uncertainties, that could materially effect our operations. We assume no obligations to update or supplement these forward-looking statements that become untrue because of other events.

With that, I'd like to turn the call over to Mr. Bob Snyder.

Bob Snyder

Welcome, fellow shareholders. Thanks, Keith. I am Bob Snyder, President and Chief Executive Officer of Orchids Paper Products. It's great to speak with you again.

In a recap of 2009, we achieved record net sales of $96 million, up 6.3% from 2008 result, and earnings per share increased 139% to $1.89 per diluted share. In the first quarter of 2010, we achieved net sales of over $21 million, down 11% from last year's first quarter; and earnings of $0.18 per diluted share, a $0.24 decrease from the first quarter of 2009, a 57% reduction.

During the first quarter of 2010, major areas of interest were in the paper manufacturing plant. We have paper-making production in the first quarter of 2010 of 13,085 tons, basically the same as the first quarter of 2009. The parent roll market improved during the quarter and still continues to strengthen.

In the converting plant, we produced over 1.4 million cases in the first quarter, a 22% decrease over the same quarter last year. The major reason for the decrease was the mass production with shipment and not to build inventory. We had shipments in the first quarter of 1.4 million cases, a 17.6% decrease from last year's first quarter.

During the quarter, there was a major softness in orders in shipment with most of our major customers. We believe the softness in shipments is due to several factors, including significant promotional activity by major branded producers, bad weather during portions of the quarter and the effects of inventory de-stocking. Our open orders and shipments continue to strengthen in the early stages of the second quarter.

Construction on a new 245,000 square foot warehouse is going well. It is over three-quarters of the way towards completion and is on track for the installation of the new converting line by mid-2010. And as stated previously, the new warehouse will enable to consolidate a converted product inventory and shipping in one location, eliminate third-party storage and shipping cost and optimize our customer service and logistics performance. Furthermore, it will free up the necessary physical space in our existing converting facility for the new converting line.

The new converting line has been checked out at the vendor's plant. It is on schedule for delivery and startup to fit with our construction timetable. It is quite an impressive piece of machinery. The state-of-the-art line with the capability to produce up to 4 million cases per year will produce both bathroom tissue and towel product as well as enable us to provide a broader range of products, better product configurations, enhanced graphics and improved embossing.

The warehouse and the new converting line products are in line with our strategy to increase sales and profitability to consume all of our paper-making production in the converting operation.

This has been a challenging quarter. I'm encouraged by the efforts and team work of the Orchid's management and workforce to face the challenges and to work together diligently for a solution.

Now, I will turn the call back over to Keith to discuss the financials.

Keith Schroeder

For the first quarter of 2010, we've reported net income of $1.4 million or $0.18 per diluted share compared with net income of $2.8 million or $0.42 per diluted share in the same period of 2009. The earnings per share calculations for the first quarter 2010 reflect the effects of our follow-on offering of 862,500 shares in the third quarter of last year.

Net sales for the first quarter of 2010 were $21 million, a decrease of 11% compared to the $23.6 million in net sales reported for the same period in last year. Net sales of converted products in the first quarter of 2010 decreased 16% to $17.6 million compared to the $21.1 million in the prior-year quarter. This was a result of a 9% decrease in net selling prices and an 8% decrease in the amount of tonnage shipped.

The decrease in net selling prices of converted products in the year-over-year comparison was both the result of a shift in mix and a higher amount of promotional activity on our branded items.

The promotional activity we commented on in our fourth quarter call continued into the first quarter to combat increased promotional pricing by national brand producers. On a sequential basis, the first quarter shipment volumes in tonnage terms were down from the fourth quarter of 2009 by approximately 13%.

Net sales of parent rolls in the current-year quarter increased 820,000 or 32% to $3.4 million compared to $2.6 million in the same period of 2009. The increase in parent roll sales was due to a 57% increase in tonnage shipped. This was partially offset by a 16% decrease in the net selling price.

The increase in parent roll tonnage shipments was due to both a strengthening parent roll market and the lower production requirements of our converting operation which resulted in more tons being available to sell in parent roll form.

Reduction in selling price for parent rolls is due to the fact that pricing in the first quarter of 2009 was still reflecting the higher wastepaper pricing from 2008 and a stronger overall parent roll market.

In the second quarter of 2009, our parent roll pricing began to decrease due to both a softening market and lower wastepaper prices. We've seen a steady, but small strengthening in the parent roll market in 2010, which is reflected in both our ability to sell tonnage and a slow but steady increase in pricing.

EBITDA in the first quarter of 2010 was $3.3 million, which was a decrease of $2.1 million compared to the $5.4 million we reported in the same quarter of 2009. As a percent of sales, EBITDA was 15.6% in the first quarter of 2010 compared to 22.9% reported in the 2009 quarter.

Gross profit for the first quarter 2010 was $3.9 million, a decrease of $2.6 million or 40% compared to the 2009 quarter. As a percent of net sales, gross profit decreased to 18.4% in the current-year quarter compared to 27.2% for the same period of 2009.

The year-over-year reduction in gross profit was primarily the result of higher wastepaper prices, lower converted product shipment volumes and a resultant effect on converting production costs, lower selling prices and higher depreciation expense.

The cost of paper in the first quarter of 2010 was $796 per ton, an increase of $109 per ton compared to the $687 per ton achieved in the same period of 2009. As previously reported, our cost of wastepaper increased to approximately 40% in the first quarter of 2010 compared to the prior-year quarter, which increased our cost of sales by approximately 1.4.

Wastepaper prices continue to increase on a monthly basis in the current-year quarter; however, our wastepaper costs were flat in the month of April compared to those experienced in March. On a sequential quarter basis, our cost of wastepaper for the first quarter of 2010 were 15% higher than those experienced in the fourth quarter of 2009, which resulted in higher cost of approximately $620,000.

The lower converted product shipment volumes we experienced in the first quarter of 2010 had a negative effect incurred in the converting production costs, because we reduced our converting production output in the quarter to be in balance with the requirements in shipments.

As a result, we experienced lower absorption of our fixed and semi-variable costs. Additionally, the lower converting shipment volumes result in a higher percentage of tons being shipped in lower-margin parent roll form as opposed to higher-margin converted product form.

Selling, general and administrative expenses in the first quarter of 2010 were $1.7 million, which is slightly less than the $1.8 million incurred in the same period of last year. As a percent of net sales, SG&A increased to 8.2% in the current-year quarter compared to 7.7% in the same period last year due to the lower overall sales.

Compared to the same period in 2009, SG&A expenses decreased primarily due to lower salaried labor costs related to the reduction of accruals under our incentive bonus.

For 2009, our effective tax rate is 29.4%. As of December 31, 2009, (favorable key) tax standard that expired and at end of the current quarter they still remain expired. These included a bonus depreciation, the Federal Indian Employment Credit and accelerated depreciation on former Indian lands.

In addition, during 2009, we consumed all of our Federal operating loss in Federal Indian Employment Credit carryforward. As a result, the current portion of our tax rate was approximately 27%.

Our financial leverage and financial ratios continue to be strong. Our funded debt to EBITDA and debt service ratios are 0.98 to 1 and 5.3 to 1 respectively as of March 31, 2010.

During the quarter, we generated cash from operations of approximately $2.7 million. We invested $7.4 million in capital expenditures, primarily in our converting expansion project and fine (screenings) project. Expenditures in the first quarter on the warehouse portion of the expansion project were $1.6 million and expenditures on the converting line were $4.3 million. We used $5 million in short-term investments to help fund these capital expenditures.

Today, we have not borrowed against the construction loan on the warehouse portion of the expansion project, but we expect to tap that facility at the end of the second quarter.

Total borrowings in that facility upon completion of the project were approximately $5.4 million. The many expenditures on the expansion project in the second and third quarters of approximately $13 million.

During the quarter, we paid down the amounts outstanding on our bank loans by approximately $925,000, bringing the outstanding debt to $22.4 million. As of the end of the quarter, we had approximately $14.2 million in cash and short-term investments, resulting in net debt levels of approximately $8.2 million.

I will now turn the call back over to Bob for a few closing comments before we take questions. Bob?

Bob Snyder

While I am very disappointed with our first quarter sales, I am optimistic about the future. Currently, we are seeing a recovery from the previous quarter's stock sales and it's strengthening, as evidenced by a resurgence of open order sales.

In addition, the construction of our new warehouse is such that we're starting to occupy a portion of the space. And the construction of our new line is on schedule. We are looking forward to enhanced sales opportunities as a result of our new converting line, as product samples produced by the new line have had a positive reception from both existing and potential customers.

Now I will turn the call back over to the operator for questions.

Question-and-Answer Session

Operator

(Operator Instructions) Your first question comes from the line of Michael Taglich.

Michael Taglich - Taglich Brothers

I have two questions. The uptick you're talking about that you're seeing now, when did it start, March, February?

Keith Schroeder

It's been building probably since March.

Michael Taglich - Taglich Brothers

Is it more accurate to say it was a horrible January, February, and things have turned since then?

Bob Snyder

I would say January was particularly difficult.

Michael Taglich - Taglich Brothers

With the (growth) in expansion, you've got close to an 8 million case capacity now, previous expansion?

Bob Snyder

Right, yes.

Michael Taglich - Taglich Brothers

And this expansion should add about 4 million more or so cases. So it's about a 50% increase in total capacity. And you were running in the first quarter well below capacity? How quickly do you sell this business out and how different is the margins on this new business than the margins you've got which have been compressed based on the higher cost of raw materials?

Keith Schroeder

Although we don't give sales forecast, we do talk about some internal forecasting of ourselves. And I would suggest that an annual run rate probably in the 10 million case area in the fourth quarter.

Michael Taglich - Taglich Brothers

And what's the market for case today of this? This is going to make higher-quality paper, this line?

Keith Schroeder

Yes, it does. It makes a higher quality and we would predict a better margin on that. And we would think that we would increase the earnings per ton on that product. And we would see a 20%, 25% increase hopefully.

Michael Taglich - Taglich Brothers

So I guess that backs into revenues about (bubbling buy) in Q4 from a horrible Q1?

Bob Snyder

Yes, probably something in that range.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of John Nobile.

Unidentified Analyst

Hi. This is actually (inaudible) for John today, but he left a couple of questions. Regarding the promotions from national brand, has that begun to abate in this current quarter?

Bob Snyder

The national brands always have some sort of promotions. What we're saying is the severe, let's say, promotions from some of those vendors has subsided. You're starting to see some of the content changes, particularly with one of the national brands. And then there are clear price increases in the July timeframe.

So I think what you've seen is promotions to gain volume and then actions to increase price, which is content changes than the actual literal shelf price changes.

Unidentified Analyst

So prices in Q2 should be better than Q1?

Bob Snyder

Yes.

Unidentified Analyst

And then with regard to the new converting line and the higher-quality product, who is the competition that you're going into this new market against? And how has the reaction been in, I guess, customers potentially switching to you versus their current suppliers?

Bob Snyder

We continue to have good reaction to the products. We're actually on the checkout in Italy. We ran our line before they took it apart to send it to us. So we made product samples both of the bathroom tissue and the towel. And those receptions were made quite well with the customers that we're talking to.

And we offer something that other people in the private-label business aren't offering. And one of them on the bathroom tissue is a nice microembossing with a nice look and a nice feel for that product. And the other is on the towel where we have the opportunity to make a nice four-color process print.

And even some of the national brands are lacking in that capacity, and a lot of the buyers are looking for people who can supply a nice four-color process, which this line can do. So we feel really good about that.

And then the product configuration that we're able to do as far as making bigger bundle packs and different configurations, that way gives us the products that the stores are looking for. And then the capacity of 4 million case capacity of this line, it gives us volumes to be able to meet the needs of some of these customers such that their demands for the amount of cases they would be looking for is quite impressive. And obviously, you've got to be able to supply it. So now we have the volume to back ourselves.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of (David Woodyadt).

Unidentified Analyst

Well, I think we all knew about the increased raw material costs, but I'm just a little dumbfounded that your selling prices of both parent rolls and converted products, as weak as they are, this is a bad combination. Could you give us a little more detail on why the selling prices are so weak here in the first quarter and what you see going forward in a little more detail?

Keith Schroeder

In think the best answer to that, David, is that the selling prices on converting products were down year-over-year. They were down mainly to a shift in our mix. And the mix improved as the quarter went on, and so we expect that to improve during this current quarter. So we expect those not to be a factor going forward.

On the parent roll side, it's just kind of a weird thing and the timing that parent roll market in the first part of 2009 was not as weak as what it was now and even in the fourth quarter of last year. And the wastepaper and scrap prices were quite high up until the end of the year 2008.

Though the parent roll price in the early part of last year had not really come down yet, it started to come down a lot more in the second quarter. This year, the parent roll market, especially during the last part of 2008, was still weak. So it was coming off of a very weak time. So the parental pricing has improved. It's improved each month. So it's just kind of a weird timing thing.

Unidentified Analyst

So you're expecting, it sounds like, at least somewhat meaningful price increases both for converted product and parent rolls going forward.

Keith Schroeder

Yes, absolutely.

Unidentified Analyst

Your competitors got to be experiencing the same cost pressures, even the ones using pulp. There's been a spike up in pulp prices too?

Bob Snyder

That's where you get the national brands; they've been announcing some price increases for July. Those kind of things are starting to happen.

Unidentified Analyst

The other question I have is, you've expressed considerable confidence in the past on being able to reasonably quickly sell this significant additional capacity of converted products once it comes on stream. I'm just wondering what the experience here in the first quarter, whether your confidence has decreased on that matter?

Bob Snyder

We're still very optimistic in that regard.

Unidentified Analyst

Can you give us a little more detail? I mean, it sounds like from other comments I heard that you I'm sure don't want to give out specifics, that you have some kind of commitments or indications of commitments from some customers, maybe because you can supply substantially more volume, that gives you this confidence that you're going to be able to sell this, a lot of this additional capacity once it comes on.

Bob Snyder

To answer the question, you've asked it the way I probably would have answered it that we are still very optimistic and yes, we're not going to give specifics or talk about specific customers.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of (Bob Sullivan).

Unidentified Analyst

Could you walk me through a little bit of your current capacity before the 4 million tons comes online? And do you have any numbers for what you were running at in Q1 of 2009? And I think we might have talked about capacity utilization in Q1 2010. Do you have those numbers?

Keith Schroeder

You're talking about the amount of product that we sold last year as compared to the overall capacity. Is that your question?

Unidentified Analyst

Correct. You're running at 60%, 70%, this year versus last year?

Keith Schroeder

Don't have those numbers exactly handy. We shipped, on a case production, in the first quarter last year about 1.7 million cases. And when you look at say our annual capacity at existing equipment is about eight for the full year. So we were pretty close to the full line.

Bob Snyder

And we've been developing the ability to prove our capacity in our older assets. So we got a sort of a moving target and we now believe that capacity would be about eight cases.

Unidentified Analyst

And then, what did you write again in Q1 of this year about the capacity level?

Bob Snyder

Pardon, could you restate that?

Unidentified Analyst

Yes. I'm just trying to get a sense for where you are in terms of your capacity utilization in Q1 2010? And what I'm trying to do here, guys, if I could just sort of push a little bit on some of the other questions about the new capacity coming on. I'm trying to get a better sense of being able to sell some of this new capacity, given what you have now, and what you're running at in terms of utilization? That's what I'm trying to go here.

Bob Snyder

I think the other part of it is, is the new capacity is really aimed at, let's say, higher tiers and really aimed at a different part of the market in the older assets. So I don't think you can directly correlate the two of them like that, if you know what I'm trying to say. You got to be thinking, the new assets are aimed at higher tier or hopefully higher margin business.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of (Mike Smith).

Unidentified Analyst

Life is good, your input costs are going up but your prices are going down I guess? Let's talk about the input cost. You've got a deal with, what is it, Dixie Cup for your basic scrap paper?

Bob Snyder

Not Dixie Cup, Dixie Pulp.

Unidentified Analyst

And is that just you've got a deal with it on the supply, so you have a certain amount of capacity, but there are no price restrictions?

Bob Snyder

Yes.

Unidentified Analyst

And how is the price that they sell you paper determined?

Bob Snyder

It's the market price.

Unidentified Analyst

And is it the earthquake in Chile that's impacted this market as well?

Bob Snyder

I think when it comes to wastepaper, absolutely, people are looking for fiber. And the scrap pricing or the virgin pulp pricing has been affected by that earthquake in driving up the price of that pulp.

The other factor you would look at on the wastepaper market is the demand for wastepaper to China. And that demand may fluctuate based on (inaudible) containers and mache containers and also the supply of materials like (wire wrapper), the board producers, the people that's using a lot of paper, and there's usually more consumption of more supply wastepaper. So those are probably some of the major factors involved in the price for the waste.

Unidentified Analyst

I know you could use another form of scrap paper, but you'd have to change your de-inking process, I guess. Am I remembering that correctly?

Bob Snyder

Yes, that would be correct.

Unidentified Analyst

If you'd already made the investment in that, would that have helped you at all stabilize your input prices?

Bob Snyder

Not really. The fiber in the process which we use sort of has different yields. And it's really about getting the fiber to the headbox. And we feel that the product quality we can get from the materials that we're sourcing, good nice bright product, a very clean book, and a very affordable price.

Unidentified Analyst

You said you're going to use your new converter primarily for higher tier. And then the higher tier to the same customers or to new ones mostly?

Bob Snyder

We'd be looking at more new customers. Obviously, is a good opportunity with an existing customer there. We're definitely going to explore it. We're looking for business with new customers.

Unidentified Analyst

Is that the Oklahoma facility that's being built by one of your competitors also at the higher tier?

Bob Snyder

I can't speak to what they may or may not be doing.

Unidentified Analyst

Well, customarily though they normally are at a little higher tier than you are. So wouldn't you mention that would be the same?

Bob Snyder

I wouldn't say that they're not.

Unidentified Analyst

Have you opened your first half of your warehouse, and shut down your Tulsa facilities yet?

Bob Snyder

We have added our new warehouse. We have freed-up the space in the existing building for the construction. We are starting to bring some of the product from the Tulsa warehouse, but we've not totally moved out of that warehouse. And it will take some time; as we finish the rest of our warehouse, it will take us some time to move product from Tulsa over to us. But we feel that that should be completed in the third quarter.

Unidentified Analyst

You indicated that some of the national brands have put or had suggestions of July price increases?

Bob Snyder

That's correct.

Unidentified Analyst

What magnitude?

Bob Snyder

We're hearing this information (inaudible) in the industry between four to six.

Unidentified Analyst

Between 4% and 6%?

Unidentified Company Representative:

Yes.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Heath Ritchie.

Unidentified Analyst

I was wondering if you could talk about the mix shift you described as affecting selling prices in the first quarter. If you could talk a little bit about, whether you're talking about customer mix or product mix and how that is moving here in the second quarter? And what the effect of the promotional pricing was? So what the like-for-like pricing was, as well as the mix effect?

Keith Schroeder

The shift and mix that we experienced was really both within the between customers, and between type of products with the customers. It was probably ahead as once they were, is the right word but it was worse in the first part of the first quarter and it got better as the quarter moved on. And then from a promotional pricing standpoint, I think our promotional pricings were up around at $200,000 on a quarter-over-quarter basis.

Unidentified Analyst

Talking about raw material pricing, you discussed some factors that were pushing that up. Do you have any kind of opinion about the outlook for raw material pricing going forward?

Bob Snyder

I don't want to try to give you guidance in that area, but we're seeing some moderation in the wastepaper pricing currently. But I'm not really going to get into the guidance of what the future may bring.

Unidentified Analyst

Last year's prices, those were historically low? And does this feel more normal?

Bob Snyder

I think the crap prices are at historical highs. And I would suggest that the wastepaper pricing is at a high point and that's starting to moderate. You can probably talk to some people maybe at (inaudible) and get some kind of prediction from where they see some of that going.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Mr. (Bob Sullivan).

Unidentified Analyst

I think I might have missed this, but on the four million case capacity that you've got coming online, what is the overall market do you think for that particular product?

Bob Snyder

Well, you'd probably be going to some higher tier items, particularly in the grocery chains or the mass merchandisers.

Unidentified Analyst

So do you have sort of some sense for what the actual market size is, market number? Is there anything like that out there?

Bob Snyder

There is information on that.

Unidentified Analyst

I think I might have missed, do you have a sense for what the increased margin to corporate margin would be from this added capacity?

Keith Schroeder

We expect that the margins that will make up the new line are about 25% more than our current line.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of (Mike Smith).

Unidentified Analyst

When you say higher tier product, you're not abandoning you private label approach, are you?

Bob Snyder

These are your private label brands, and they have higher tiers and usually on the shelf. They usually have an entry level, which is your value segment, and then they'll bring it up into higher tiers which are going to continue to match more of the national brands.

Unidentified Analyst

When I went to a Dollar General and looked at your products, it seemed like their higher level was Scott Paper. So you would then be competing with Scott Paper?

Bob Snyder

We would not be directly competing against that tier. But it'd be an equivalent offering, which would have a higher qualitative level, yes.

Unidentified Analyst

So you would be more in this middle tier?

Bob Snyder

Yes.

Operator

There are no further questions. I would now like to turn the call over to Mr. Bob Snyder.

Bob Snyder

Thank you for you all attending today's conference call, and we will look forward to talking to you again next quarter. Thank you very much.

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, that concludes today's conference. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect. Have a great day.

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