USD/CAD - Rangebound Trade Continues

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 |  Includes: FXC, UDN, UUP
by: Dean Popplewell

By Kenny Fisher

USD/CAD continues to look listless, as the pair continues to trade in the mid-1.09 range early in Tuesday's North American session. In economic news, Canadian Foreign Securities Purchases declined for the first time in six months. In the US, today's highlight was Empire State Manufacturing Index. The indicator slid badly in January and was well off expectations.

Canadian Foreign Securities Purchases disappointed, posting a reading of -$4.28 billion, way off the estimate of +$9.97 billion. This marked the first time we've seen foreign investors reduce their Canadian holdings since July. The indicator is closely linked to currency demand, since foreigners require Canadian dollars in order to purchase domestic bonds. So, the decrease in the purchase of Canadian assets by foreigners in January could weigh on the shaky Canadian dollar. We'll get a look at Wholesale Sales on Tuesday, an important gauge of consumer spending.

In the US, it's been a quiet week so far, with no major releases due until Wednesday. The Empire State Manufacturing Index slid to 4.5 points in January, down sharply from 12.5 a month earlier. The estimate stood at 9.9 points. We'll get another look at US manufacturing numbers later in the week, with the release of the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index, a key event.

USD/CAD for Tuesday, February 18, 2014

Forex Rate Graph 21/1/13

USD/CAD February 18 at 15:00 GMT

USD/CAD 1.0963 H: 1.0977 L: 1.0947

USD/CAD Technical

S3 S2 S1 R1 R2 R3
1.0783 1.0852 1.0906 1.1000 1.1094 1.1177
Click to enlarge
  • USD/CAD continues to show little movement in Tuesday trading.
  • 1.0906 is providing support. This is followed by a support line at 1.0852, which has held firm since mid-January.
  • On the upside, the round number of 1.10 is the next line of resistance. There is stronger resistance at 1.1094.
  • Current range: 1.0906 to 1.1000

Further levels in both directions:

  • Below: 1.0906, 1.0852, 1.0783 and 1.0706
  • Above: 1.1000, 1.1094, 1.1177, 1.1319 and 1.1496

OANDA's Open Positions Ratio

USD/CAD ratio is pointing to gains in Tuesday trading. This is not consistent with what we are seeing from the pair, which is almost unchanged. The ratio is now evenly split between long and short positions, indicating a lack of trader bias with regard to the movement we can expect from the pair.

USD/CAD continues to show little movement on Tuesday. With no major releases on the schedule from either Canada or the US, the pair could continue to drift in the North American session.

USD/CAD Fundamentals

  • 13:30 Canadian Foreign Securities Purchases. Estimate 9.97B. Actual -4.28B.
  • 13:30 US Empire State Manufacturing Index. Estimate 9.9 points. Actual 4.5 points.
  • 14:00 US TIC Long-Term Purchases. Estimate +28.9B. Actual -45.9B.
  • 15:00 US NAHB Housing Market Index. Estimate 56 points. Actual 46 points.

*Key releases are highlighted in bold

*All release times are GMT

This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.