Here's the economic calendar for the week commencing the 10th of May 2010. The main event out this week, and a topical one at that, is eurozone GDP for Q1 2010 on Wednesday.
Another key set of data will be the monthly update from China on lending, money supply, trade, inflation, industrial production, fixed asset investment, and retail sales.
In the retail sales space there's also an update from the US and New Zealand. There's also the Bank of England meeting on Monday, which may be interesting given the euro context.
(More commentary follows the table)
|CNY||M2 Money Supply y/y||22.1%||22.5%|
|MON||1:30||AUD||NAB Business Confidence (APR)||16|
|MON||6:00||EUR||German Trade Balance (euros) (MAR)||14.0B||12.6B|
|MON||6:00||EUR||German Current Account (euros) (MAR)||13.5B||9.1B|
|MON||8:30||EUR||Euro-Zone Sentix Investor Confidence (MAY)||-1||2.5|
|MON||10:00||CNY||Consumer Price Index y/y||2.7%||2.4%|
|MON||10:00||CNY||Fixed Asset Investment ytd/y||26.1%||26.4%|
|MON||10:00||CNY||Retail Sales y/y||18.2%||18.0%|
|MON||11:00||GBP||Bank of England Interest Rate Decision||0.5%||0.5%|
|MON||11:00||GBP||Bank of England Asset Purchase Target||200B||200B|
|MON||12:15||CAD||Housing Starts (APR)||200.0K||197.3K|
|MON||22:45||NZD||NZ Card Spending (MoM) (APR)||2.1|
|TUE||GBP||NIESR GDP Estimate (APR)||0.4%|
|TUE||8:30||GBP||Industrial Production (YoY) (MAR)||0.6%||-0.1%|
|TUE||9:30||AUD||2010-11 Federal Budget Report|
|TUE||11:30||USD||NFIB Small Business Optimism (APR)||86.8|
|WED||5:00||JPY||Leading Index (MAR P)||98.5|
|WED||6:00||EUR||German Gross Domestic Product (YoY)||1.2%||-1.7%|
|WED||6:45||EUR||French Gross Domestic Product (YoY)||1.4%||-0.3%|
|WED||8:00||EUR||Italian Gross Domestic Product (YoY)||0.1%||-3.0%|
|WED||8:30||GBP||Jobless Claims Change (APR)||-20.0K||-32.9K|
|WED||9:00||EUR||Euro-Zone Gross Domestic Product (QoQ)||0.2%||0.0%|
|WED||9:00||EUR||Euro-Zone Gross Domestic Product (YoY)||0.5%||-2.2%|
|WED||9:00||EUR||Euro-Zone Industrial Production (MoM) (MAR)||1.0%||0.9%|
|WED||9:30||GBP||Bank of England Quarterly Inflation Report|
|WED||11:00||USD||Bloomberg Global Confidence (MAY)||67.57|
|WED||12:30||CAD||International Merchandise Trade (CAD) (MAR)||1.6B||1.4B|
|WED||12:30||USD||Trade Balance (MAR)||-$39.9B||-$39.7B|
|WED||22:30||NZD||Business NZ Performance of Mfg Index (APR)||56.3|
|WED||23:01||GBP||Nationwide Consumer Confidence (APR)||73||72|
|WED||23:50||JPY||Trade Balance - BOP Basis (Yen) (MAR)||778.0B|
|THU||JPY||Eco Watchers Survey: Outlook (APR)||47|
|THU||1:30||AUD||Employment Change (APR)||22.5K||19.6K|
|THU||1:30||AUD||Unemployment Rate (APR)||5.3%||5.3%|
|THU||8:00||EUR||ECB Publishes Monthly Report|
|THU||22:00||NZD||REINZ Housing Price Index (MoM) (APR)||1.7%|
|THU||22:45||NZD||Retail Sales (MoM) (MAR)||1.1%||-0.6%|
|THU||22:45||NZD||Retail Sales Ex Inflation (QoQ) (1Q)||0.3%||1.0%|
|FRI||12:30||USD||Advance Retail Sales (APR)||0.3%||1.6%|
|FRI||12:30||USD||Retail Sales Less Autos (APR)||0.5%||0.6%|
|FRI||13:15||USD||Industrial Production (APR)||0.6%||0.1%|
|FRI||13:55||USD||U. of Michigan Confidence (MAY P)||73.5||72.2|
Starting off with the main event, EU GDP, the consensus forecast is for 0.2% q/q vs a previous 0%, while the year on year figures is expected to creep up 0.5% into positive territory vs -0.3% in Q4 2009. Of the big hitters, Germany is expected to show growth at 1.2% vs previous -1.7%, France is expected to grow 1.4% vs -0.3% previous, and Italy 0.1% vs -3.0%. Overall the results will likely be much improved, but given the current backdrop, the improvement could end up being short lived.
The other key one to watch will be the China data, with key monetary, activity, and prices data giving fresh insight into the state of Chinese overheating. The April figures are broadly expected to be roughly in line with the March numbers, but any surprises will be worth noting indeed, especially in the inflation area. New loans will also be interesting to check in the context of the moves taken by the Chinese authorities to clamp down on excessive loan growth.
On the monetary policy front the Bank of England will be meeting to review interest rates and the asset purchase program on Monday. Not that politics should play into central banking, now that the election is over there may be more flexibility for the BoE to make any moves. However, given the concerns about contagion and sovereign risks in the Euro Area, there most certainly wont be any tightening moves.
On that note, it is expected that a group of Finance Ministers from the EU will be establishing a firm agreement for a backstop facility to "...defend the euro, whatever it takes,”. Just what form this takes will be interesting, and will have a huge impact on financial market and economic confidence. If you want proof of that just check last week what happened when the ECB did nothing as fears of contagion grew and the Euro came under attack. These are indeed interesting times.
So as always, have a great week, watch out for surprises, stay tuned for updates... and let's be careful out there!
+various statistics websites and central bank websites for verification
Disclosure: No positions