Seeking Alpha
Dividend investing, growth, momentum
Profile| Send Message|
( followers)  

Executive summary:

  • 5 top Basic Materials sector dividend dogs showed hearty 1 yr. upsides of 20.22% to 33.77% as of Valentine's Day while five laggards in the top ten (as ranked by analyst mean target price) showed double digit results averaging 14%.
  • Dividend dropped as price rose and showed a bullish trend for top ten Basic Materials dogs but ten Dow dogs sent up a mixed signal.
  • Analysts projected average 29.2% 1 yr. net gains for EROC, SDRL, NDRO, EVEP, PER, NRP, EPB, LNCO, QRE, & MCEP.
  • Consider these stocks as possible starting points for your Basic Materials dividend dog stock purchase research.

_________________________________

Monthly results from here verified using Yahoo Finance data for basic materials sector stocks as of market closing prices February 14 compared with analyst mean target price results one year hence found five stocks projected to flaunt 20.22% to 33.77% price upsides:

National Resource Partners (NYSE:NRP) an industrial metals and minerals firm from Houston showed the low 20.2% upside; Enduro Royalty Trust (NYSE:NDRO) from Austin showed a 23.37% estimated upside; EV Energy Partners L.P. (NASDAQ:EVEP) a driller based in Houston with 27.17% upside captured middle ground; Seadrill Limited (NYSE:SDRL) the peripatetic driller out of Bermuda was second best at 28.51% upside; best was Eagle Rock Energy Partners (NASDAQ:EROC) with 33.77% listed as a refiner and marketer from Houston.

Five basic materials dogs trailing those at the top showed 11.55% to 17.23% price upsides.

Actionable Conclusion (1) Ten Basic Materials Valentine Dividend Dogs Track 11.55% to 33.77% Upsides

The chart above used one year mean target price set by brokerage analysts matched against February 14 closing price to compare ten sector stocks showing the highest upside price potential into 2015 out of 20 selected by yield. The number of analysts providing price estimates was noted after the name for each stock. Three to nine analysts were considered optimal for a valid mean target price estimate.

Thirty For the Money

Since the fall of 2011 this report series applied dog dividend methodology to uncover possible buy opportunities in each of eight major market sectors listed by Yahoo Finance: basic materials (BasMats), consumer goods (ConGo), financials (Fins), healthcare (Heal), industrial goods (IndiGo), services (Svcs), technology (Tec), and utilities (Utes). In the past year the series has expanded to report (1) dividend yield; (2) price upside; (3) net gain results based on analyst 1 yr. target projections.

Dog dividend methodology is based on Michael B. O'Higgins book "Beating The Dow" (HarperCollins, 1991), which revealed how high yielding stocks whose prices increased (and whose dividend yields therefore decreased) could be sold off once a year to sweep gains and reinvest the seed money into higher yielding stocks in the same index. Now named Dogs of the Dow, O'Higgins system also works to find bargains in any collection of dividend paying stocks. Utilizing analyst price upside estimates has expanded the stock lists to include popular growth equities, if desired.

The report below tallied yield (dividend / price) results from Yahoo Finance for the basic materials sector as of market closing prices February 14 and compared them to results for the top ten dogs of the Dow. Arnold top basic materials dog selections for February were disclosed below step by step. Three additional actionable conclusions were drawn.

Dog Metrics Sorted Basic Materials Sector Stocks by Yield

All ten of the top basic materials stocks showing the biggest dividend yields per the Yahoo screen as of February 14 represented oil and/or gas (o&g) industries. Top dog, SandRidge Mississippian Trust II (NYSE:SDR) was one of two driller in the top ten. The other driller, Seadrill Limited placed ninth. Six independent o&g firms were slotted two, three, five, seven, eight & ten: Sandridge Permian Trust (NYSE:PER); Enduro Royalty Trust ; LRR Energy L.P. (NYSE:LRE); QR Energy LP (NYSE:QRE); Atlas Resource Partners, L.P. (NYSE:ARP); Memorial Production Partners LP (NASDAQ:MEMP). Two o&g refiners and marketers, BP Prudhoe Bay Royalty Trust (NYSE:BPT), and Eagle Rock Energy Partners L.P. placed fourth and sixth to complete the top ten.

Sector Leader Dividend vs. Price Results Compared to Top Dow Index Dogs

The graph below of the relative strengths of the top ten basic materials dogs by yield was plotted as of market close 2/14/2014 compared to those of the Dow. Historic projected annual dividend history from $10,000 invested as $1k in each of the ten highest yielding stocks and the total single share prices of those ten stocks created the data points shown in green for price and blue for dividends.

(click to enlarge)

Actionable Conclusion (2): Basic Materials Top Ten Dogs Got Bullish As Dow Dithered Up

Dividend from $10k invested as $1k in each basic material top ten dog fell while the aggregate single share price of those ten increased since January. Dividend dropped at a rate of 6% while total single share price increased 11% in that period. The bullish market signal was mainly propelled by new stocks entering the top ten.

For the Dow dogs, meanwhile, projected annual dividend from $10k invested as $1K in each of the top ten Dow dogs increased 0.27% since January while aggregate single share price rose nearly 4.4%. The Dow dogs overbought condition in which aggregate single share price of the ten exceeded projected annual dividend from $10k invested in those ten (@$1k each) widened again. The overhang was $140 or 38% to end November; shrank back to $111 or 29% into December/January; expanded to $132 or 35% into February.

To quantify the top dog rankings, analyst mean price target estimates provided a "market sentiment" gauge of upside potential and so were added to the simple high yield "dog" metric used to dig out bargains.

Actionable Conclusion (3): Wall Street Wizards Weighed A 22% Net Gain from Top 20 Basic Materials Dogs By February 2015

Top twenty dogs for the basic materials sector were graphed below to show relative strengths by dividend and price as of February 14, 2014 and those projected by analyst mean price target estimates to the same date in 2015.

A hypothetical $1000 investment in each equity was divided by the current share price to find the number of shares purchased. The shares number was then multiplied by projected annual per share dividend amounts to find the dividend return. Thereafter the analyst mean target price was used to gauge the stock upsides to 2015.

Historic prices and actual dividends paid from $1000 invested in each of the ten highest yielding stocks and the aggregate single share prices of those twenty stocks divided by 2 created the data points for 2014. Projections based on estimated increases in dividend amounts from $1000 invested in the twenty highest yielding stocks and aggregate one year analyst target share prices from Yahoo Finance divided by 2 created the 2015 data points green for price and blue for dividends.

(click to enlarge)

Yahoo projected 10.3% lower dividend from $10K invested in this group while aggregate single share price was projected to increase by 11.5% in the coming year.

The number of analysts contributing to the mean target price estimate for each stock was noted in the next to the last column on the charts. Three to nine analysts was considered optimal for a valid projection estimate. Estimates provided by one analyst were not applied (n/a).

A beta (risk) ranking for each analyst rated stock was provided in the far right column on the above chart. A beta of 1 meant the stock's price would move with the market. Less than 1 showed lower than market movement. Higher than 1 showed greater than market movement. A negative beta number indicated the degree of a stocks movement opposite of market direction.

Actionable Conclusion (4): Analysts Forecast 10 Basic Materials Sector Dogs to Net 20.4% to 42.9% By 2015

Five of the ten top dividend yielding basic materials dogs were verified as being among the top gainers for the coming year based on analyst 1 year target prices. So this month the dog strategy for basic materials as graded by Wall St. wizards was 50% accurate.

Ten probable profit generating trades revealed by Yahoo Finance into 2015 were:

Eagle Rock Energy Partners netted $429.63 based on dividends plus mean target price estimate from three analysts less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to volatility 9% less than the market as a whole.

Seadrill Limited netted $371.03, based on dividend plus mean target price estimates from fourteen analysts less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to volatility 44% greater than the market as a whole.

Enduro Royalty Trust netted $345.02, based on dividends plus mean target price estimate from four analysts less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to volatility 2% less than the market as a whole.

EV Energy Partners L.P. netted $329.01 based on estimates from nine analysts plus dividends less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to volatility 59% less than the market as a whole.

Sandridge Permian Trust netted $299.52 based on estimates from two analysts plus dividends less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to volatility 5% greater than the market as a whole.

National Resource Partners netted $272.34, based on dividends plus a mean target price estimate by three analysts less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to volatility 44% more than the market as a whole.

El Paso Partners Pipeline, LP (NYSE:EPB) netted $236.21 based on estimates from twelve analysts plus dividends less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to volatility 83% less than the market as a whole.

LinnCo LLC (NASDAQ:LNCO) netted $260.94 based on a mean target price estimate from four analysts combined with projected annual dividend less broker fees. No Beta number was available for LNCO.

QR Energy LP netted $207.92 based on dividends plus the mean of annual price estimates from ten analysts less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to volatility 30% less than the market as a whole.

Mid-Con Energy Partners (NASDAQ:MCEP) netted $204.09 based on a mean target price estimate from seven analysts combined with projected annual dividend less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to volatility 63% greater than the market as a whole.

Average net gain in dividend and price was over 29% on $10k invested as $1kin each of these ten dogs. This gain estimate was subject to average volatility 3% less than the market as a whole.

The stocks listed above were suggested only as decent starting points for your basic materials sector dog dividend stock purchase research process. These were not recommendations.

These gains as reported do not factor-in any tax problems resulting from distributions. Consult your tax advisor regarding the source of "dividends" from any investment.

Disclaimer: This article is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed to constitute investment advice. Nothing contained herein shall constitute a solicitation, recommendation or endorsement to buy or sell any security. Prices and returns on equities in this article except as noted are listed without consideration of fees, commissions, taxes, penalties, or interest payable due to purchasing, holding, or selling same.

Source: 5 Basic Materials Dogs Stalk 20% To 34% February Upsides