- 5 direct competitors in the consumer goods & technology sectors show mild 1 yr. analyst mean target price upsides ranging from 1.16% to 11.44% as of February 21.
- Analysts project average 5.24% 1 yr. net gains from MSFT, AAPL, GOOG, ORCL, & HPQ.
- Consider these as starting points for your stock purchase research for next big thing growth stocks.
The list of stocks below was created by comparing competitor lists for Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT), and Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) as reported by Yahoo Finance. One or more of these five consumer goods/technology sector firms could likely invent and exploit the next big thing in monitoring, memory, and reporting devices. The rationale was that if they did it before, they could do it again.
Analysts (a.k.a. Wall St. Wizards) reported 1 yr. target price estimates as part of their periodic review of the equities they covered. Adding up all the price estimates for a single equity and dividing them by the number of analysts found the mean 1 yr. target price for each equity. The mean 1 yr. target price provided a gauge of market sentiment for each stock when compared to its current price.
Results from Yahoo Finance tallied as of market closing prices February 21 found Apple Inc. exhibited a 11.44% price upside to lead the field by market sentiment.
Others on the list besides Apple Inc. were: Google Inc. (NASDAQ:GOOG) with 8.23%; Hewlett-Packard Company (NYSE:HPQ) showing 6.68% upside; Oracle, Inc. (NYSE:ORCL) projected 2.15%; Microsoft Corporation posted 1.16% upside.
The number of analysts providing price estimates was noted after the name for each stock on the source table for the chart. Three to nine analysts were considered optimal for a valid mean target price estimate.
Wall Street Wizards Wrest 5.93% Average Price Gain from 5 Next Big Thing Stocks By 2015
Five Yahoo Finance picks were graphed below to show relative strengths from $1k invested in each as of February 21, 2014 compared to prices projected by Yahoo Finance analyst mean 1 year target estimates to the same date in 2015.
Aggregate single share price of the five stocks created data points for 2014. Projections based on aggregate one year analyst target share prices from Yahoo Finance created the 2015 data points for the green line showing price appreciation.
Yahoo Finance projected an aggregate single share price increase of 8.8% for these stocks in the coming year. The number of analysts contributing to the mean target price estimate for each stock was noted in the next to the last column on the chart. Again, three to nine analysts was considered optimal for a valid projection estimate.
A beta (risk) ranking for each analyst rated stock was provided in the far right column of the chart above. A beta of 1 meant the stock's price would move with the market. Less than 1 showed lower than market movement. Higher than 1 showed greater than market movement. Negative numbers show movement the opposite of market direction.
Five Next Big Thing Stocks Net 1.4% to 11.85% by February 2015
A hypothetical $1000 investment in each stock divided by the current share price found the number of shares purchased. Thereafter the analyst mean target price gauged stock price upsides. Those plus any dividends less $20 purchase and sale broker fees calculated net gains as of 2015.
Profit generating stock trades from $1k invested in each Next Big Thing Stock revealed by Yahoo Finance for 2015 were:
Apple Inc. netted $117.59, based on dividends plus mean target price estimates from forty-four analysts less $20 in broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to volatility 27% less than the market as a whole.
Hewlett-Packard Company. netted $66.27 based on dividends plus mean target price estimates from twenty-four analysts less $20 in broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to volatility 75% greater than the market as a whole.
Google Inc. netted $62.30 based on a mean target price estimate from forty analysts less $20 in broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to volatility 10% less than the market as a whole.
Microsoft Corporation netted $21.07 based on dividends plus mean target price estimates from twenty-eight analysts less $20 in broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to volatility 31% less than the market as a whole.
Oracle, Inc. netted $14.12 based on dividends plus mean target price estimates from twenty-four analysts less $20 in estimated broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to volatility 15% more than the market as a whole.
The average net gain in price was 5.63% on $5k invested as $1k each in these stocks. This gain estimate was subject to average volatility 4% greater than the market as a whole.
Of course when one or more of these firms manage to stumble upon the next big thing, these calculations derived from Wall St. wizardry are moot. Still, you'll rest well knowing you got in on the next big thing before it happened because you believed that if they did it before they could do it again.
The stocks listed above were suggested only as decent starting points for your next big thing stock purchase research process. These were not recommendations.
Disclaimer: This article is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed to constitute investment advice. Nothing contained herein shall constitute a solicitation, recommendation or endorsement to buy or sell any security. Prices and returns on equities in this article except as noted are listed without consideration of fees, commissions, taxes, penalties, or interest payable due to purchasing, holding, or selling same.
Disclosure: I am long MSFT. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.