Deckers Outdoor Corp. (DECK) is set to report FQ4 2013 earnings after the market closes on Thursday, February 27th. Deckers is an outdoor footwear manufacturer which focuses on selling functional shoes. Deckers sells 6 brands of footwear including UGG, Teva, Sanuk, Tsubo, Ahnu, and Mozo. This quarter retail sales have been weak but Wall Street is expecting 15% growth in revenue compared to FQ4 last year and 38% growth in yoy EPS. Here's what investors are expecting from Deckers on Thursday.
The information below is derived from data submitted to the Estimize.com platform by a set of Buy Side and Independent analyst contributors.
The current Wall Street consensus expectation is for DECK to report $3.81 EPS and $708.70M revenue while the current Estimize.com consensus from 16 Buy Side and Independent contributing analysts is $3.84 EPS and $711.77M in revenue. This quarter the buy-side, as represented by the Estimize.com community, is expecting Deckers to beat the Wall Street consensus by 3c EPS and $3 million in revenue.
Over the previous 6 quarters the consensus from Estimize.com has been more accurate than Wall Street in predicting Deckers's EPS every time and has been more accurate in forecasting revenue twice. By tapping into a wider range of contributors including hedge-fund analysts, asset managers, independent research shops, students, and non professional investors, Estimize has created a data set that is up to 69.5% more accurate than Wall Street, but more importantly it does a better job of representing the market's actual expectations. It has been confirmed by an independent academic study from Rice University that stock prices tend to react with a more strongly associated degree to the expectation benchmark from Estimize than from the Wall Street consensus.
The magnitude of the difference between the Wall Street and Estimize consensus numbers often identifies opportunities to take advantage of expectations that may not have been priced into the market. In this case we are seeing a smaller differential for Deckers.
The distribution of estimates published by analysts on the Estimize.com platform range from 4c to 10c EPS and $1.120B to $1.180B in revenues. This quarter we're seeing an average distribution of estimates for Deckers.
The size of the distribution of estimates relative to previous quarters often signals whether or not the market is confident that it has priced in the expected earnings already. A wider distribution of estimates signaling less agreement in the market, which could mean greater volatility post earnings.
Over the past 4 months the Wall Street EPS consensus increased from $3.77 to $3.81 while the Estimize consensus dipped before rising from $3.78 to $3.84 at the end of the period. Over the same period of time, the Wall Street revenue consensus rose from $706.39M to $708.7M while the Estimize consensus dropped before surging from $708.45M to $711.77M. Timeliness is correlated with accuracy and upward analyst revisions at the very end of the quarter are often a bullish indicator.
The analyst with the highest estimate confidence rating this quarter is MartyChargin who projects $3.89 EPS and $709.11M in revenue. In the Winter 2014 season MartyChargin is rated as the 34th best analyst and is ranked 69th overall among over 3,900 contributing analysts. Estimate confidence ratings are calculated through algorithms developed by deep quantitative research which looks at correlations between analyst track records and tendencies as they relate to future accuracy. In this case MartyChargin is expecting Deckers to beat the Estimize consensus on EPS but come up short on revenue.
This quarter contributing analysts on the Estimize.com platform are expecting Deckers to beat the Wall Street consensus on both EPS and revenue. Although Deckers is a manufacturer and not a retailer, if they can beat the Street's expectations during a holiday season rife with weak holiday sales it would be an encouraging sign about the company's future.
Disclosure: No positions