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Westar Energy, Inc. (NYSE:WR)

Q4 2013 Earnings Conference Call

February 27, 2014 10:00 ET

Executives

Bruce Burns - Director, Investor Relations

Mark Ruelle - President and Chief Executive Officer

Tony Somma - Chief Financial Officer

Analysts

Travis Miller - Morningstar

Michael Lapides - Goldman Sachs

Brian Russo - Ladenburg Thalmann

Julien Dumoulin-Smith - UBS

Sarah Akers - Wells Fargo

Ashar Khan - Visium

Mike Bates - Wunderlich Securities

Operator

Good day, ladies and gentlemen and welcome to the Fourth Quarter 2013 Westar Energy Year End Conference Call. My name is Denise and I will be the operator for today. At this time, all participants are in listen-only mode. Later, we will conduct a question-and-answer session. (Operator Instructions) As a reminder, this conference is being recorded for replay purposes.

I would now like to turn the conference over to Mr. Bruce Burns, Director, Investor Relations. Please proceed.

Bruce Burns - Director, Investor Relations

Alright, thank you. Well, after that brief distraction, good morning. Welcome to our fourth quarter call. Last night, we filed our 10-K along with the earnings release and supplemental materials, which can be found under the Investors section of our website at westarenergy.com. Some of our remarks will be forward-looking. So I will remind you of uncertainties inherent in our comments this morning and in some of the statements found in the earnings release and accompanying materials. Factors that could cause our future results to differ from what we discussed today are those listed in the 10-K under forward-looking statements and under the risk factors. We encourage you to read the full disclosure in the 10-K and in the earnings materials, both of which are available on the website. Earnings materials also reflect that we reconcile our gross margin presentation with GAAP earnings.

Commenting this morning will be our CFO, Tony Somma and our President and CEO Mark Ruelle. We have other members of our management team with us should you have questions for them. Tony will offer highlights on the 2013 results, comment on our 5-year CapEx plan and this year’s financing plans. He will also address guidance. Mark will refresh you on the regulatory plans and makes some observations about our business.

With that, I’ll turn the call to Tony.

Tony Somma - Chief Financial Officer

Thanks, Bruce. Good morning. 2013 was a great year with earnings of $2.29 at the top end of upper revised guidance and well ahead of 2012. Q4 results were also strong at $0.32 comparable to 2012 when you consider we received no COLI in Q4 of ‘13.

Before I get into details, let me point out that we have adjusted our income statement presentation for you to more clearly identify a couple of major expense categories, SPP network transmission and property taxes. These don’t really impact the bottom line, because they have timely revenue offsets.

Now, on the fourth quarter results, gross margin was up for both the year and the quarter. The Q4 increase of 6% was due largely to sales from both favorable weather and stronger industrial sales. The weather in the quarter added a couple of cents and almost every industrial category registered increases, with aerospace and food processing leading the way. For the full year, we estimate weather normalized residential and commercial sales grew around 1% as planned. For the year, we estimate weather added a couple of cents over normal. Brent was about $0.12 lower than 2012.

For industrial sales, we are starting to turn the corner. They were softer in the first three quarters principally due to just a few very large low margin customers. The earnings impact from them being about $0.03 for the entire year. We are pleased to see some of these same customers report higher results over the last couple of months, including early into this year. Also helping were favorable price adjustments related to investments in air quality and transmission. We implemented new rates from our abbreviated case last year, a bit earlier than planned. So included in Q4 was one month of benefit from the CWIP on our LaCygne retrofit.

O&M outside the (indiscernible) offset came in a little higher than we have planned, but were still up only about half of 1%. This is due primarily to higher distribution and maintenance expenses. For the quarter, however, combined O&M and SG&A increased 10% partially reflecting just timing of expenses. Here are other major changes: $7 million of higher distribution system expenses, including $3 million for tree trimming, which is offset by authorized revenues specifically for that purpose; $2 million of higher amortization from Wolf Creek’s last refuel outage; and $5 million for SG&A, primarily for the timing of labor and benefits.

In your packets is our new 5-year capital forecast. As has been the case recently for the next two years, the lion’s share, just under half, continues to be investments in transmission and air quality, but air quality investment falls off in 2015 and almost disappears after that as we complete the last two major retrofits. Speaking of those, both our Jeffrey and LaCygne projects remain on schedule and under budget. We project transmission investment over the next five years to be over $1 billion or nearly one-third of total capital investment. These are primarily smaller non-contestable projects focused on enhancing grid reliability within our own footprint. Additionally, we expect energize Prairie Wind in the latter half of this year at an estimated cost of $170 million well below its initial budget and still way ahead of schedule too.

As for 2014 financing plans, this should be pretty quiet, no need to tap debt or equity markets for new money. We’ll just sell about 3 million shares from forward sales already priced last year and we will refinance $250 million in bonds that mature mid-year. There are a couple of tax exempt issues that we will keep an eye on for possible refinancing if it makes sense. Of the 12 million shares already sold under forward agreements as I just mentioned we will settle 3 million shares in the latter half of the year selling the remainder next year around the time of our rate case. Looking at over the next 10 years, we expect to invest about $7 billion. For the last half dozen years relative to our size, Westar has had one of the largest construction programs in the industry. As a result, we have been regular issuers of new equity. Our new capital forecast still provides great opportunity for growth, but is more optimally sized for internal cash generation. So, I am delighted to share with you that we see no need for more equity.

Turning to guidance, in December, we issued preliminary 2014 earnings guidance of $2.25 to $2.40. With the release last night, we are affirming that range. That includes an updated assumption for weather normalized retail growth of 50 to 100 basis points.

With that, let me turn things over to Mark.

Mark Ruelle - President and Chief Executive Officer

Good morning and thank you for joining us. As Tony said, we had a very good last year and we are off to a great start for 2014 as well. We delivered on promised growth, kept our major projects on track and produced earnings and dividends our investors have come to expect.

First, let me refresh your understanding of our regulatory calendar. We will have no general rate case this year. Of course, we’ll continue to process the various tariff updates for transmission, air quality investments etcetera. The transmission tariff we updated last week should go into effect in April. We will update our environmental tariff in June. Together, these should draw an additional $50 million of annualized revenue. As Tony mentioned, we got a little boost late last year from the LaCygne rate order coming in a bit early. We will get a full year effective at this year, which is just over $30 million. The fourth quarter of ‘13 was the start of a test year for our planned general rate case that we expect to file next spring. That’s where we will pick up the second half of LaCygne as well as update things more generally.

Turning to the economy, things look pretty solid. Kansas ended the year with unemployment of just 4.9% favorable to the nation by 150 basis points. Building permits continue to increase. The largest number of them is for multi-family, which typically means total electric. As Tony just mentioned, we expect positive retail sales growth in the 50 to 100 basis point range across smaller customers. Based on conversations with large customers and what we have already seen early this year, we see the potential for industrial sales to grow as much as 1%, which would be a nice turn from last year’s decline. Growth is occurring across the board. Several pipelines are still expanding and under construction. Should Keystone get approved, that would be additional to our forecast, but in the out years.

Aerospace led by Spirit should continue with a steady increase. Spirit supplies the major component for the 737, which has a backlog in the thousands. And it’s one of the lines that Boeing is targeting for increased deliveries. Food processing remained strong across a wide spectrum from Twinkies to chocolate bars to flour milling and salt. And our heavy – our largest heavy metal customer just added a second shift to meet returning demand for heavy equipment. As Tony mentioned, we still have ample opportunities to grow our business without having to tap the equity markets. With our air quality retrofits coming to a close, we will tip the scales in our capital budget even more toward transmission. For about as far into the futures we can see, we expect to invest about $200 million a year on new lines and substations.

The best news about most of these projects is that they are in our own footprint, enhancing our own system. That means they are not contestable under Order 1000. Outside of these additional opportunities, project management has become a core competency of Westar. With the big transmission lines, power plants, windfarms or air quality projects, our folks have a great record of understanding and managing project scope, knowing how to solve problems and bringing big projects in on time and on budget and safely. In fact, just last year was our safest year ever on safety. All 600 of our power plant employees worked more than a year in a heavily industrialized environment without a single accident.

All these things mean that we are well positioned to compete for additional regional transmission projects, those higher voltage new lines that will be competitive under Order 1000. And we are positioning for it. I know many of you are as tired of the winter as we are here in Kansas, but it’s not all bad. Our system has held up well even in record cold, plus it’s been good for sales. Its conditions like these that help remind us and others that we have to actively manage around a wide range of changing and sometimes volatile circumstances to keep our business on track and the lights on. An example, recent strains on the natural gas system only reinforced Westar’s sentiments toward maintaining an all of the above balanced supply portfolio.

Even as we saw our gas and power prices blow out, in fact, in Oklahoma there was a spell that we couldn’t get gas to one of our peakers at any price, it helped to reinforce the value of our coal, nuclear and wind generation as parts of the answer. As gas soared to more than 10 times its recent trading prices, our coal plants kept running on fuel less than $2 in MMBtu and with plenty of supply on site, as a result our customers didn’t feel the impact of the polar vortex other than maybe the wind in their faces. As you saw last night, we boosted the dividend again too, up 3% to $0.35 a quarter. This is the 10th increase in as many years and demonstrates that our Board understands the importance dividends in producing a competitive total return.

Based on the midpoint of our 2014 guidance this puts our payout ratio at the bottom of our target range of 60% to 75% and that’s a nice place to be. We know a growing dividend is an important part of the Westar investment thesis and this positions us to take advantage of it. For investors seeking a traditional utility investment with a straight forward business plan, sensible regulation and a growing dividend, we hope Westar fits the bill.

Denise, we are now ready for questions from the financial community members of the media. If you have questions, we invite you to contact Gina Penzig. Gina’s number is 785-575-8089. Denise, would you please open the line.

Question-and-Answer Session

Operator

Sure. (Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from Travis Miller with Morningstar. Please proceed.

Travis Miller - Morningstar

Guys.

Mark Ruelle

Good morning

Travis Miller – Morningstar

A question on the dividends here, you have been on this $0.04 increase for a while. And given that now you are at that bottom end of the payout ratio, your growth on that dividend is trailing behinds projected earnings growth, how should we think about when you might get off of that $0.04 increase?

Mark Ruelle

Well, I think you know that we are finishing up a couple of major projects still. So we got a heavy construction program yet this year and in the next, but after that it’s more optimally sized as Tony said. And we like how we are positioned for future growth.

Travis Miller - Morningstar

Okay. And then real quick, there was a story or at least a bill I understand, legislation that came up in the house recently regarding transmission. I was just wondering if you could talk about how that might affect you or anybody or with transmission billed out in that region?

Mark Ruelle

You are talking about the Kansas legislature?

Travis Miller - Morningstar

Yes, the state, yes

Mark Ruelle

Yes. Right now I don’t think that bill go anywhere. It was as you know under Order 1000, certain transmission will be competitive and certain transmission will not be competitive. That was a bill to perhaps draw the line in a little more optimal place. We don’t see it as a big deal either way, but net-net we will like to have seen it.

Travis Miller - Morningstar

Okay, great. Thanks a lot.

Mark Ruelle

Thank you.

Operator

Our next question comes from Michael Lapides with Goldman Sachs. Please proceed.

Mark Ruelle

Good morning Mike.

Michael Lapides - Goldman Sachs

Hi guys. Congrats on a good 2013. One or two questions, one on the capital – and you made modest revisions to your capital spending plans, but one of the revisions was a slight uptake in expected distributions spending. And just curious, your – how do you anticipate managing regulatory lag, given slightly higher distribution spend?

Mark Ruelle

Sure. Well, obviously, you want your investment strategy to be closely correlated and correspond with your regulatory approach. So obviously our customers expect good reliability and we intend to deliver it to them and the optimal time to do that for a couple of reasons is as you are heading into a GRC.

Michael Lapides - Goldman Sachs

So meaning the higher distribution spend in 2014 would get captured as part of the test year, but spend after that would we will have to wait to a future test year?

Mark Ruelle

Well, you are may be nuancing it a little more, but obviously you want to make sure – and its no good for anybody if you don’t do this, that your level of spending gets captured in the ranges that your customers pay and this position us for it.

Michael Lapides - Goldman Sachs

Got it, one thing I don’t know if a lot of folks are chatting about, but Supreme Court heard the Casper case on December 10. There are all kind of discussion and reports regarding the body language of the justices and I don't think anybody really knows how this one is going to turn out. But just curious, if Casper were reinstated, what does that mean for your fleet and your capital budget?

Mark Ruelle

On even - our issue with Casper was its planned timing back in 2012, but we had the projects under way to deal with those requirements anyway. So as we finish up our last – our last Jeffrey project and our LaCygne project and do some very minor stuff at other plants, we don’t see Casper as a big deal one way or the other. It would have been a big deal had it been effective January 1, 2012.

Michael Lapides - Goldman Sachs

Got it and last question, just trying to think about what level of demand growth, meaning I know you are forecasting 0.5% to about 1%, similar to some of your neighbors in 2014, what level of demand growth would require you to have to rethink about whether you need I don’t know new peaking generation or some other form of kind of – and it would be a small amount I assume, and when would that likely potentially kick in?

Douglas Sterbenz

This is Doug. We don’t need any base load or any substantial generation until out pass 2022. So it would depend on our retirement plans on our existing units and whether we want to speed any of those up for any other reasons, whether we would not need to build anything new or not.

Michael Lapides - Goldman Sachs

Got it.

Mark Ruelle

Michael we keep a lot of room to maneuver in our fleet because circumstances change, so if we want to keep something liable a longer we can, if it makes sense to retire something a little early or maybe upsize we can do that as well. But we are pretty jealous of room to maneuver.

Michael Lapides - Goldman Sachs

Okay. And last item, when I go back and look at the capital budget, there is actually an uptick in some of the transmission spend in the outer years, kind of the ’16, ’17, ’18 timeframe, are these related to projects and you commented on them a little bit, Mark, I want to make sure I understand. Are these projects that the SPP has already approved or are they projects that the SPP doesn’t even need to approve just because they tend to be small in scale?

Mark Ruelle

It’s really both, but it’s mostly the latter, which is these are not controversial. They are not Greenfield and they are not big. They re just nice little tuck-in projects that are – of small bites, but a lot of small bites.

Michael Lapides - Goldman Sachs

Got it, okay. Thanks guys, much appreciated.

Mark Ruelle

Thank you.

Operator

Our next question comes from Brian Russo with Ladenburg Thalmann. Please proceed.

Brian Russo - Ladenburg Thalmann

Good morning. Just the updated guidance assumptions, you kept the guidance range in the midpoint, consistent with the December guidance, it looks like the retail sales now is 50 to 100 basis points versus 50 to 75 basis points and it looks like your effective tax rate is a little bit higher than previously disclosed. Can you just comment on the two what’s kind of driving both of those items?

Tony Somma

Yes, Brian, this is Tony. We came out with the preliminary guidance in December exactly for – or November for that reasons preliminary. We trued up our numbers. I think if you look at the two in the aggregate they will pretty much offset each other, which is why we are comfortable sticking with the range. And there are obviously a lot of factors that go on to a range and we are still comfortable with that range.

Brian Russo - Ladenburg Thalmann

Okay. So, on the retail sales, I mean I guess are you little bit more optimistic per se than previously?

Tony Somma

Sure. That’s why we bumped the upper end.

Brian Russo - Ladenburg Thalmann

Great. Okay, great. Thank you.

Tony Somma

You’re welcome.

Operator

Our next question comes from (indiscernible) with UBS. Please proceed.

Julien Dumoulin-Smith - UBS

Hi, good morning. It’s Julien actually.

Mark Ruelle

Good morning Julien.

Julien Dumoulin-Smith - UBS

Hey, so quick question, if you will. In terms of the FERC 1000 process at the SPP level, could you talk a little bit as to your understanding in timeline and when that element of competitiveness might kind of trickle into your CapEx and earnings projections? What are we going to start seeing that rubber hit the road? And from your perspective, what does it mean also in terms of competing, like what does it mean to compete as best you understand it?

Mark Ruelle

Julien, I will sort of outline the framework a little bit and I will turn over to Kelly Harrison, who is our VP of Transmission, but how it works is that if it’s an enhancement to your existing system, in your existing footprint, that’s not contestable. If it’s under 100 Kv, that’s not contestable. If it’s over 100 Kv, it typically is contestable unless states intervene and adjust that a little bit. So, if it’s a new project, not part of our existing system and over a 100 Kv, then it is contestable and competitive. And Kelly can talk a little more about the timing of these things?

Kelly Harrison

Yes. So the current process of that SPP was Power Pool. This year they will do that they call a needs assessment for projects of that magnitude of 100 Kv to 300 Kv and above and then next spring once the SPP board identifies which project they want to build, they will send out an RFP request for proposals and that’s when we will compete. And it will be about a year process to have an independent panel review who the winners and losers are.

Mark Ruelle

But again, the core $200 million or so in our forecast is independent of all this, what Kelly is talking about would be an addition to that.

Mark Ruelle

Correct.

Julien Dumoulin-Smith - UBS

Excellent. And then secondly if you would – we have seen a lot of wind RFPs get awarded yourselves and otherwise. What are you thinking about when it comes to the transmission forecast to accommodate all of that, how does that jive with the forecast you have put out there today?

Mark Ruelle

I will make sure I understand your questions. You are talking about how the impact of the additional wind?

Julien Dumoulin-Smith - UBS

Yes. To the extent that which that folks have been upsizing their RFP procurement, does that change or could that change your transmission CapEx forecast?

Mark Ruelle

The higher the wind obviously the more need for transmission. The Southwest Power Pool right now and their model study for about 8 gigawatts to 10 gigawatts of wind in the footprint. So, to the extent the more wind comes in that could change the need for these competitive projects are directly related.

Julien Dumoulin-Smith - UBS

Excellent. And then could you elaborate lastly a little bit more on the gas supply, you talked about how it constraints and I suppose we have heard a lot more about the Northeast impact, but does this change anything from your own planning perspectives that we should be looking for be it for your own assets or otherwise from a going forward perspective?

Mark Ruelle

It just reinforces what we are doing, which is I don’t care what the basket is you don’t put everything in it.

Julien Dumoulin-Smith - UBS

Fair enough.

Operator

The next question comes from Sarah Akers, Wells Fargo. Please proceed.

Sarah Akers - Wells Fargo

Hey, good morning.

Mark Ruelle

Good morning.

Sarah Akers - Wells Fargo

As a follow up to Michael’s question on regulatory lag, you still have a historical test year to deal within Kansas, but as your CapEx normalizes or what do you see is a reasonable run rate for the lag or for under earning on the state level in ‘16 and beyond?

Tony Somma

Hey, Sarah. Good morning. This is Tony. Well, I think fairly good proxy is to look at our GAAP consolidated ROE and then our Kansas assets will typically be a little bit behind that. Of course, the consolidated also has the FERC assets in it, which would boost it above the Kansas ROE. But kind of a rule of thumb, if you look at our consolidated ROE and maybe subtract out 20 basis points or so, that gets you into the zip code of the Kansas ROE. Fair enough, Bruce?

Bruce Burns

Yes.

Sarah Akers - Wells Fargo

Okay, got it and then sorry if I missed this, but can you remind us when the SPP will release their next big transmission plan?

Mark Ruelle

The Southwest Power Pool’s needs assessment is supposed to come out this spring. The next big plan will be approved at January of 2015, at the January Board meeting and the end of January.

Sarah Akers - Wells Fargo

Got it. Thanks guys.

Mark Ruelle

Thank you.

Operator

Our next question comes from Ashar Khan with Visium. Please proceed.

Ashar Khan - Visium

Could you just remind us again, just to go over, so we will be filing our next rate case in the next summer, is that correct?

Mark Ruelle

Next spring.

Ashar Khan - Visium

Next spring, so for new rates to be in effect?

Mark Ruelle

I think it’s ’16.

Ashar Khan – Visium

’16 and what kind of ROE are we earning this year, Mark, can you – do you have any based on the midpoint of the guidance?

Tony Somma

Hey Ashare, this is Tony. As I stated earlier, if you look at our consolidated GAAP ROE and knock off 20, 30 basis points off of that, that’s a good proxy for what the Kansas jurisdictional assets are earnings.

Ashar Khan - Visium

So about – so that’s based on a GAAP ROE, right, am I correct?

Tony Somma

Right and you can start with the GAAP ROE and then subtract off 20 to 30 basis points on that, its get you to a Kansas jurisdictional ROE. Obviously, there is pluses or minus on what goes on rate base.

Mark Ruelle

But you have to understand what goes in rate base. So for example, we have a half of our LaCygne retrofit that will go in service the middle of ’15. And obviously, that’s the primary driving factor for a GRC.

Ashar Khan - Visium

Okay.

Mark Ruelle

Once that goes in service, that’s going to hit ROE, and that warrants the increase.

Ashar Khan – Visium

Can you tell us right now what kind of deficiency are we looking in terms of revenues next year?

Mark Ruelle

No, we haven’t filed the case, and we haven’t prepared the case yet.

Ashar Khan - Visium

Okay, okay. Thank you so much.

Mark Ruelle

Thank you.

Operator

(Operator Instructions) Our next question comes from Mike Bates with Wunderlich Securities. Please proceed.

Mark Ruelle

Good morning, Mike.

Mike Bates - Wunderlich Securities

Hey good morning. I just wanted to ask one or two follow ups on your CapEx forecast. As you look at what you are projecting right now in terms of your distribution forecast, what can you tell us in terms of drivers who would potentially accelerate some of that spending?

Tony Somma

I’m sorry Mike to accelerated meaning.

Mike Bates - Wunderlich Securities

Right, to upsize your distribution CapEx spend, as you look at the needs of your current system, what would make you invest in that infrastructure more quickly or more overall?

Tony Somma

Well, I think we have done a pretty good job of balancing the demands of the system vis-à-vis what goes to generation, what goes to transmission, and what goes to distribution. And we feel comfortable with the numbers that we have out there in the forecast of that, that’s a good level of spend to give our customers very reliable service.

Mark Ruelle

Mike, it is Mark. If you mean do we have like a New Jersey plan for Kansas, we don’t anticipate that. But obviously, if there were some new federal mandates that said you had to have some – certain level of reliability or some – certain levels of quantity of the belts and suspenders. Those kinds of things I suppose you could conceive. But we don’t feel that we are in a big hole, and we haven’t had the national attention the way maybe they did after Superstorm Sandy or something like that. But it’s obviously things ebb and flow, you try to optimize them with your cost recovery, there are times when you have to spend lot on your generating plans and maybe you spend a little less somewhere else and then the pendulum swings and you do it with the other way. But there is nothing so remarkable what we’re doing, what we plan to do with distribution at this point, just always getting better.

Mike Bates - Wunderlich Securities

Sure, great. Thank you very much.

Operator

We have no further questions. I would now like to turn the call over to Mark Ruelle for closing remarks. Please proceed.

Mark Ruelle - President and Chief Executive Officer

Thank you, Denise. And thank you again folks for joining us. If you have follow-up questions, please contact Bruce at 785-575-8227. Have a great day.

Operator

This concludes today’s conference. You may now disconnect. Have a great day.

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