S&P 500 - The Bull Market Is Only 1 Year Old

Includes: DIA, IWM, QQQ, SPY
by: John DiCecco

How long is a piece of string?

Well, it depends at which point you start measuring.

How old is the SP500 Bull Market?

Well, it depends at which point you start measuring.

We are of the opinion that the Bull Market is only one-year old. In fact, it's First Birthday will occur on March 3, 2014 (Happy Birthday!)

Most market analysts are using the depths of the March 2009 bottom in the SP500 as the starting point of the current bull market uptrend.

We believe that this is a grave error.

Looking at 20-year chart of the SP500 two very obvious peaks appear on the chart: April 2000 and September 2007. At both of these points the SP500 peaked out at around 1,550. This is the level, we proffer, from which the current Bull Market should be measured.

Where you mark the beginning of the Bull Market can profoundly affect your investment strategy over the next decade.

If you believe that the Bull Market is five years old you will begin to get nervous about your LONG positions (if you are LONG). Five years is long time for a market uptrend. The thought that the market might turn to the downside may push you to lighten up on your LONG trades or exit the market entirely or even take SHORT positions.

But if you believe that the Bull Market is only one year old, how nervous can you be about your LONG positions?

In our opinion what happened between April 2000 and March 2013 was a long 13-year consolidation period for the SP500. The technical breakout for the index occurred on March 3, 2013 when the index closed at 1,614.42, marking the fourth consecutive weekly close above 1550, definitely leaving this resistance level behind, and signaling the beginning of the next secular bull market.

A conservative calculation would put the peak of this new secular bull market for the SP500 at around 2,750 sometime over the next ten years.

Be very careful where you mark the starting point. It will determine your profit end point.

Disclosure: I am long SPY. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.