Treasuries in the 2% Range? Depends on Europe

by: Bernard Thomas

Well, if the equity markets were a ride at Disney Land they would require "E" tickets. Tuesday the market opened up down more than 300 points only to close down only 22.82. This is reminiscent of the markets of 2008 at the time of the financial crisis. Is it short covering? Yeah, there is some of that. After all, who is so insane as to be exposed overnight when anything can come out of Europe and, thanks to North Korea, Asia as well.

Someone else thinks current conditions are reminiscent of 2008. That person would be Treasury Secretary, Tim Geithner. Mr. Geithner said today that it was the stress tests which broke the back of the crisis and that similar measures were needed to be taken by European officials to quell fears in the markets. Thanks Timmy, but some of us have been saying this for quite some time now. However since few, if any, EU officials read my publications, maybe Mr. Geithner can get through to them.

Case Shiller housing data indicates that the effects of government home buying programs are diminishing. Guest after guest on CNBC Tuesday expressed concern about a flat economic growth or a double dip recession. One guest went as far as to predict a 10-year treasury well into the 2.00% range. Although I am not bullish on the U.S. or Global economies, I believe that the only way we see a 10-year in the 2s is if Europe permits its contagion to spread. Hopefully they have Mr. Geithner's and Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke's phone numbers.

Disclosure: Long TBT, Citigroup (NYSE:C), Ford (NYSE:F), FREprZ, Sirius (NASDAQ:SIRI)

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