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Numerex (NASDAQ:NMRX)

Q4 2013 Earnings Call

March 06, 2014 4:30 pm ET

Executives

Stratton J. Nicolaides - Chairman, Chief Executive Officer and President

Richard A. Flynt - Chief Financial Officer

Analysts

Joseph Zaccaria - Needham & Company, LLC, Research Division

T. Michael Walkley - Canaccord Genuity, Research Division

Michael Latimore - Northland Capital Markets, Research Division

Michael Fawzy Malouf - Craig-Hallum Capital Group LLC, Research Division

Operator

Good day, ladies and gentlemen, and thank you for your patience. You've joined the Numerex Corporation Q4 2013 Financial Results Call. As a reminder, this conference may be recorded. I would now like to turn the call over to your host, Mr. Stratton Nicolaides, CEO and Chairman of Numerex Corporation. Sir, you may begin.

Stratton J. Nicolaides

Well, thank you, Latiff. And ladies and gentlemen, good afternoon, and welcome to Numerex's fourth quarter and full year 2013 earnings call. Rick Flynt, our CFO, and I will comment on the company's quarterly and full year operating and financial performance, after which we will open up the call to your comments and questions in the Q&A that follows.

Please keep in mind that to the extent our statements are not historical fact, they should be considered as forward-looking and may involve certain risks, as detailed in this morning's press release -- this afternoon's press release, rather, and the company's SEC filings.

Just to start off, we are very pleased with the company's solid performance in Q4, in the second half of 2013, that reflected the benefits of the investment made in our M2M platforms and operations during the first half of the year. New products and services introduced to our supply chain partners, security customers and strategic channels significantly contributed to Q4 favorable results.

Also, significant progress has been made in securing many services contracts during the quarter, which we expect will come online in 2014. As a result, our opportunity funnel is robust and is expected to yield a number of additional revenue-generating programs over the course of the year, specifically in interactive home automation, broadband security and supply chain. I'll get into a little more detail later. In addition to securing a number of commercial and customer wins, new financial milestones were achieved in the quarter as well. We are particularly pleased with our Q4 year-over-year revenue growth of 25% and adjusted EBITDA growth of 27%. And GAAP earnings in Q4 doubled -- more than doubled from the earnings recorded in the same period of last year. Recurring service revenues generated from subscription also markedly improved, boasting a 19.3% growth in Q4 and 21.3% growth for the full year 2013 over 2012. That was well within our guidance range of 18% to 23%. Also worthy of note, our gross margins improved across-the-board in Q4. While some of the improvement was seasonal, and Rick will give you -- provide you a little more detail later, the company's subscription and support margins improved during the quarter, partly attributable to a favorable mix of high value subscriptions recorded during the quarter, and embedded devices and hardware margins improved slightly during the quarter as well, again, the result of a favorable product mix. Again, overall, Q4's performance was favorably impacted by generally strong demand for our device, network and gateway-enabled products, some of which were sold in conjunction with the launch of solutions developed on behalf of certain customers. Now, our -- what we referred to as build on behalf of programs are expected to continue to attract high-quality enterprise customers across a number of vertical markets, specifically tank and bin monitoring solutions designed for the supply chain market, broadband monitoring solutions designed for the voice over IP security systems and next-generation, satellite-based asset monitoring and identification products designed for the emergency response and government markets. These development initiatives have broader application and are not just limited to the markets we just -- we mentioned -- I just mentioned. Home automation and other advanced security systems marketed and sold by our customers continue to grow at a very nice pace, along with our traditional security products marketed and sold through our Uplink service brand.

Our broadband or voice over IP security products also continue to expand beyond the DIY markets into new enterprise and consumer markets. In addition, we are offering our broadband products designed for the security market to a number of major retailers. A rollout is anticipated during 2014. Also, we are running multiple field trials with a supply chain partner in the waste management segment. Also importantly, our recent technology acquisitions have already begun to contribute to revenue. These solutions achieved revenues per subscription that are significantly greater than our historical average. These additions are part of our overall strategy to continue to develop and pursue higher value solutions.

Full year subscription growth was 28%, a very good result considering the impact of implementing analytical data programs designed to call out certain subs where the margin contribution was negligible, in some cases, negative, resulting in the reduction of several thousand subs in 2013, which, by the way, modestly contributed to an improvement in our margins. Despite these changes, we added 63,000 net new subscriptions during the quarter. Separately, we divested nearly 160,000 low-value subs that reduced our cumulative subscription count, but which, by the way, yielded approximately $2 million in proceeds that we've collected during Q4 of 2013 and Q1 of 2014. Now, we view this as a successful onetime event, which will increase our revenue per unit and positively impact margins when combined with the ramp-up of our high-value solution initiatives and as we deemphasize the commodity side of our business. And although this may create some lumpiness in new net subscriptions in the first half of the year, we are very pleased with the progress made in transitioning to a high-value solutions business where we will continue to concentrate our resources. That said, we expect solid subscription growth of approximately 20% for the full year 2014. Of course, the high-value products and solutions expected to favorably impact our growth during 2014, we anticipate an increase in our ARPU or average revenue per unit. Now, ARPU associated with these products and services just mentioned are, in many instances, several times our current average. Total subscription and support revenue grew 20% year-over-year, eclipsing the full -- the growth that we experienced in 2012 over 2011 full year analysis, which was 14.5%. We are encouraged by this acceleration in growth and anticipate a continuation of solid growth, respectively, especially with the ramp of high-value applications. Now with respect to growth in our subscription base recurring revenue, which was calculated net of professional services, we expect to continue -- the continued ramp of supply chain and security solutions, and the completion and commercialization of several customer projects by midyear to favorably impact growth. When we combine these with new turnkey product launches, we expect growth in our subscription base recurring revenue to range between 20% and 23% for the full year 2014.

Our embedded device & hardware revenue grew at a faster pace than expected, recording over 19% growth year-over-year and reflected an impressive second half comeback. Most of the device and hardware connect to our M2M platforms and result in a subscription, although there is a lag time, to generate meaningful revenue. A significant portion of the hardware units sold are shipped to contract manufacturers that complete the development of our customers' products and solutions before they are connected. As a result, we continue to expect sequential quarterly swings in revenue from embedded devices & hardware. With that in mind, we anticipate growth in embedded device & hardware revenues to range between 15% and 18% for the full year 2014.

As we've mentioned a number of times in previous calls, we have focused our resources in cultivating certain markets that we believe are underserved and offer excellent opportunities to create a leading vertical market presence for Numerex and its customers. In doing so, we will continue to develop suites of innovative products and services, some of which have been introduced to our customers who serve these markets. Of course, our product strategy, regardless of vertical market, leverages both our horizontal network and application platforms. Consequently, the investment made in both horizontal platform service and certain applications are starting to generate opportunity across-the-board. Yet, as predicted, our engineering and development expenses declined as a percentage of revenues during Q4 and were essentially flat, in absolute terms, sequentially from Q3.

Now, before I turn the call over to Rick, I want to reiterate our position that significant investments in development of our M2M platforms that enable the Internet of Things and the vertical market initiatives we mentioned is consistent with our mission to provide, as a single source, managed M2M solutions hosted through our integrated platforms that incorporate the key elements of device, network and application, or as we refer to as Numerex DNA, primarily on a subscription basis. Return on this investment is beginning to materialize and is expected to favorably impact financial results prospectively. With respect to the -- to full year 2014 guidance, in addition to the revenue and subscription guidance I already mentioned, we expect the company's adjusted EBITDA for 2014 to improve by 35% to 37% over the $8.4 million recorded in the full year 2013. Thank you very much. And now, I will turn the call over to Rick.

Richard A. Flynt

Thanks, Stratton, and good afternoon, everyone. Well, we had another very good quarter as we continued to execute on our plan, achieving strong revenue growth and improved gross margins. In a number of areas, our actual results in fourth quarter exceeded the guidance we provided to you in our 2013 third quarter conference call. Total revenues of $22.2 million compared to the guidance range of $19 million to $21 million. For the full year, embedded devices & hardware revenue grew by 19.2% over the prior year as compared to our estimated full year growth range of 8% to 12%. And in the second half of 2013, embedded devices & hardware revenue was more than 80% higher than it was in the first half of the year. Total gross margin percentage improved meaningfully end Q4 to 43.2% as compared with 40.9% in the third quarter of 2013.

Subscription and support revenue gross margin was 61.9% in Q4 compared to 58.3% in Q3 of 2013. The improvement in gross margin in Q4 was primarily due to reduced carrier expenses and revenue recognized for unused messaging. As expected, operating expenses, excluding depreciation and amortization, increased modestly in Q4 compared to Q3.

Overall, our trajectory exiting the fourth quarter 2013 is very positive and will serve as a solid foundation as we begin 2014. Our 2013 fourth quarter and full year results also reflect significant improvement over the comparable period in 2012. During the fourth quarter, total revenue increased 24.6% or $4.4 million compared to revenue of $17.8 million in the same period last year. The company posted an increase of $12.8 million in total revenue for the full year, reflecting an increase of 20% over the prior year. Subscription and support revenue was $13.7 million in fourth quarter, an increase of 18% year-over-year. And on a full year basis, our subscription and support revenue grew $9 million or 20% as compared with the prior year. Embedded devices & hardware revenue was $8.5 million in Q4 compared to $6.2 million during the same quarter of 2012. And for the full year of 2013, hardware revenue totaled $26.2 million, which was a $4.2 million or 19.2% increase over 2012. Subscription and support revenue gross margin was 61.9% in Q4 compared to 58.1% in the fourth quarter of 2012.

The improvement in gross margin in Q4 was primarily due to reduced carrier expenses, revenue recognized for unused messaging and a realignment of our internal organizational structure. Hardware gross margin in the fourth quarter of 2013 was 13% compared to 7.3% in the same period last year. And total gross margin was 43.2% in Q4 compared to 40.5% in the same period last year.

Adjusted EBITDA from continuing operations, which is a non-GAAP measure and excludes certain noncash and infrequent and unusual items, totaled $2.9 million in Q4 2013 as compared with $2.2 million in the prior year fourth quarter. The increase in the quarter-over-quarter adjusted EBITDA is primarily attributable to improved operating results, including increased revenue and higher gross profit.

Now turning to expenses, sales and marketing expense in Q4 increased $0.6 million to $2.6 million as compared to Q4 2012, primarily due to an increase in headcount and other personnel-related costs to support demand and future growth. During the fourth quarter, general and administrative expenses were $3.5 million compared to $2.7 million during the same period last year. The increase is primarily due to higher personnel costs, noncash compensation expense and facility expenses. Engineering and development cost in Q4 increased $0.6 million year-over-year, primarily attributable to projects undertaken to enhance our managed service capabilities. Depreciation and amortization expense in Q4 increased by $0.4 million compared to the same quarter in 2012, largely because of amortization-related to additional internally developed software, and to a lesser extent, the amortization on technology and intellectual property assets purchased in recent business acquisitions. With respect to income taxes, we recorded tax expense of $185,000 related to continuing operations in Q4 2013 compared to a tax benefit of approximately $127,000 in the same quarter of 2012. The net impact of this change is a $400,000 swing in income from continuing operations net of income taxes. On a GAAP basis, income from continuing operations, net of income taxes, for the 3 months ended December 2013 totaled $950,000 or $0.05 per diluted share as compared to $376,000 or $0.02 per diluted share during the same period last year. Year-over-year, income from continuing operations, net of income taxes, increased 153% in Q4.

Now going to the balance sheet. We had cash balances of $25.6 million at December 31, 2013, and that's compared to $4.9 million at December 31, 2012. The significant increase in cash is primarily due to the capital raised we completed in Q1 of '13. Also, during the 12 months ended December 2013, we generated $6.1 million of cash from operating activities. During 2013, we also invested in our business, including outlays of $2.8 million for acquisitions, $3.4 million on intangibles and other assets, and $1 million for the purchase of property and equipment. Accounts receivable, net of the allowance for doubtful accounts at December 31, 2013, totaled $9.4 million compared to $8.5 million at the end of 2012. Based on the rolling 12 months of revenue, our DSOs were 44 days at December 31, 2013, compared to 48 days at September 30, 2013, and 54 days at December 31, 2012. Inventory at the end of Q4 was $8.3 million compared to $7.4 million at December 31, 2012. The increase generally relates to the purchase of new generation technology. And at the end of December 2013, working capital was $34.9 million compared to $13.4 million at December 31, 2012. Now, we will open up the session to Q&A. [Operator Instructions] Thank you.

Question-and-Answer Session

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Our first question comes from Richard Valera of Needham.

Joseph Zaccaria - Needham & Company, LLC, Research Division

This is Joe Zaccaria on for Rich. I was hoping you could provide a little granularity on the outlook for '14, specifically. What do you guys expect from some of the managed service deals, including Deere for '14?

Stratton J. Nicolaides

Well, we have secured a number of projects. We expect them to come online, and we don't break out the numbers between managed services and other projects and also, the turnkey products and services that we're launching. So -- but it is -- we expect it to have an impact towards the second half of the year, and a greater impact than is happening today, of course, and then to ramp up in earnest in late 2014 and 2015. But these are very significant projects, Joe, so they take time and we're working with some very large industrial companies to commercialize them.

Joseph Zaccaria - Needham & Company, LLC, Research Division

Perfect. And I guess, in looking out to '14 also, expectations for ARPU, if you could?

Stratton J. Nicolaides

Well, we don't give any guidance for ARPU, but we do -- you do the division long hand. We just give services and support revenue, and you divide to it by our subscriptions. So our job is very, very clear. We're going after very high average revenue per unit solutions, and in many instances, we -- they're in the $5 to $15 range, far greater than the average we have today, and of course, our preference. So we expect our subscriptions to -- we -- currently, the growth from historic trends to 20%, but we do expect that our average revenue per unit on those subscriptions over the year will increase.

Joseph Zaccaria - Needham & Company, LLC, Research Division

Great. And last one before I jump back in the queue. I was wondering if there were any specific verticals that drove subscriber growth in the fourth quarter, and similarly, do you expect that mix to change at all in '14?

Stratton J. Nicolaides

Well, we -- I'll answer the -- it was actually very broad-based. The demand is across-the-board, so we are enjoying that, at least we enjoyed that for the most part -- most of 2013. And now we do expect the mix to change a little bit in 2014 with the introduction of new products and services in some of the market segments and vertical markets that we mentioned on the call, specifically the broadband security, voice over IP solution and some of the other tank monitoring and bin monitoring solutions that we've introduced in the supply chain markets. So that will change the mix a little bit. And we're not inclined to give that much detail because it's obviously strategic pricing -- pricing strategic so.

Operator

Our next question comes from Mike Walkley of Canaccord Genuity.

T. Michael Walkley - Canaccord Genuity, Research Division

Stratton, can you go over the 150,000 -- I'm just trying to understand the 150,000 subscriptions that came off the book, so the divestiture. Can you kind of walk through that again?

Stratton J. Nicolaides

Yes. There were -- we had an opportunity to divest ourselves of the 160,000 subs, low value subs, and we did. So that's a business that we are deemphasizing over time, and again, we think it was a successful onetime event, and we were pleasantly surprised by the return. But nevertheless, it is -- it has reduced our cumulative subbase by that amount. It is -- and the -- it's actually improved our margins, I think, Rick, slightly, and also our -- the average revenue per unit.

Richard A. Flynt

Right.

T. Michael Walkley - Canaccord Genuity, Research Division

Okay. So that's just -- do you -- another carrier, MVNO, was willing to take on these subs and you had a transaction to move them off, is that the way to think about it?

Stratton J. Nicolaides

Well, yes, we're not -- well, that's -- most -- you could probably guess it's part of the mix, but we're really not at liberty to disclose the party or to whom we sold it.

T. Michael Walkley - Canaccord Genuity, Research Division

Okay, great. And then just with AT&T's sunsetting of their 2G network, how should we think about that with your subbase and what's implied in your guidance?

Stratton J. Nicolaides

Yes, well, the sunset is not going to take place until 2017, January 2017. So our customers, of course, have acclimated themselves to the 4G technology the we've introduced well into beginning of last year. Not '13, rather for '12. So they've been moving steadily towards 4G technology. It's HSPA+, which is considered 4G, which is also backward-compatible. At least my understanding is its backward-compatible to 8 LTE, which is where the direction we're heading. And so we feel like we're very well-positioned. And insofar as the determining the guidance for '14, it's had really no impact in my thinking.

T. Michael Walkley - Canaccord Genuity, Research Division

Okay. One more and I'll jump back in the queue. Rick, can you just help us think about how we should model taxes and the overall OpEx as you continue to invest in managed services for 2014?

Richard A. Flynt

Well, I think from a cash tax basis, we still have a couple of years out before we are actually paying cash taxes. From an OpEx standpoint, I think we will continue to have -- not have OpEx grow as a percentage of revenue. It will either remain steady or slightly decline.

Operator

Our next question comes from Mike Latimore of Northland Capital.

Michael Latimore - Northland Capital Markets, Research Division

I guess since the last earnings call, have you -- you talked about -- on this earnings call, you talked about securing a number of wins in the managed service space, I guess. Did you have a couple of incremental good size wins since the last earnings call?

Stratton J. Nicolaides

Yes, we have. We have -- the opportunity funnel is very, very flush. We're very pleased with the -- what we see in the market for these managed services. Also, the product launches and some of the technology that we've accumulated over the last year or 18 months from these acquisitions. So we've disclosed the 3 broad buckets, 1 was broadband into the voice over IP market; we have the asset notification and monitoring area of emergency services and government; and the supply chain, which is both tank monitoring, bin monitoring and other products that we haven't yet announced. But we're very pleased with the direction and the funnel right now.

Michael Latimore - Northland Capital Markets, Research Division

And then from a gross margin standpoint, how do you view -- kind of, did you see gross margin expansion this year overall?

Stratton J. Nicolaides

Well, we think we -- in the fourth quarter, we did, certainly. I think, Rick, what did we have? 60...

Richard A. Flynt

[indiscernible]

Stratton J. Nicolaides

We had 61.2. Now some of that, as we mentioned, is seasonal because we get some breakage benefit at the end of the year through messaging, expiration and also some other reduction. We've been very good with our data analytics and our Big Data programs that we're implementing to call out these -- some of these weak sisters that we haven't subbed, so to speak, and with the quest to improve our margins. So that part of the program is going to be ongoing. But the divestitures was a onetime, for all intents and purposes, a onetime event.

Michael Latimore - Northland Capital Markets, Research Division

Sure. But gross margin overall should increase some in 2014?

Stratton J. Nicolaides

Well, we haven't given any guidance on gross margin, but it should still remain very healthy.

Michael Latimore - Northland Capital Markets, Research Division

Okay. And I guess, last question. You talked about selling, I think you said your broadband products through retailers. I guess, one, did I hear that correctly? And two, are you dealing directly with the retailers on that or how does that work?

Stratton J. Nicolaides

Well, no. Again, our model's indirect. We're not filling the shelves of retailers. We just typically go through channel partners and -- or strategic partners. So, I mean, it's not outside the realm of possibility, but that's really not our model currently. So we typically like to go through partners.

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Our next question comes from Mike Malouf of Craig-Hallum Capital.

Michael Fawzy Malouf - Craig-Hallum Capital Group LLC, Research Division

If I could just get a little bit more color on the sub growth. I think if you look back, taking the fourth quarter, of course, out of the equation, but looking at the past sort of 3 to 5 quarters, you've been averaging around 135,000, 140,000 new subs every quarter. If you put in your sort of 20% guidance, it looks like you're going to be down to about 110,000 subscribers per quarter. So I'm just kind of wondering what -- why the slowdown sort of given all the spending and infrastructure buildout that you guys have done?

Stratton J. Nicolaides

Well, it's not -- well, certainly, numerically, it's a slowdown, but we're focused on a completely different end of the market. We've been focused on this for a number of years now, on basically the high-end solutions business. So we've accumulated a couple of businesses in the tank monitoring, bin monitoring area that support the supply chain. We've then aligned ourselves strategically with certain channels into the supply chain market as well, we've announced some of them, and we'll continue doing that. Now those are typically -- our estimates are that these are going to be not as -- they're $10 subs, let's say, for example, as opposed to the $1 we might be getting from some of the others. So we're just deemphasizing the commodity side of the business and we've been doing it for a while. And emphasizing, obviously, the higher end of the market where we see the great opportunity, where we're making, I think, great headway. So it's 20% growth based on -- with a significantly higher ramp of these high-value applications is actually very exciting. So we don't view it as a slowdown. But we're going to -- we're not going to go after the commodity business, and particularly, in the network side any longer.

Michael Fawzy Malouf - Craig-Hallum Capital Group LLC, Research Division

I mean, to put it a different way, if you took the average subs times your average sub revenue per sub over the past few quarters, which would give you kind of, I don't know, $800,000 or so of subscription revenue every quarter that you would be adding, are you going to be increasing that in 2014 or is that slowing down, too?

Stratton J. Nicolaides

Well, no. It's not actually. We showed an increase in the numbers between 20% and 23% on the subscription base. That's the highest guidance we've given in, I think, ever, in terms of the subscription revenue. So -- and that's what we want to focus on. I mean, the subs are fine and they're a good metric. They're -- it's not a perfect metric because the average -- obviously, the revenues -- it's a great metric if the average revenue per unit, were very consistent. But in some of the markets that we grew in over the last few years, the average revenue per unit was low. So now, we've been concentrating and focused on these managed services arrangements and other high-value application where the ARPU is significantly higher. And that's what we're going to continue doing. So actually, we guided higher for the full year 2014.

Michael Fawzy Malouf - Craig-Hallum Capital Group LLC, Research Division

Okay. And then just a quick question maybe for Rick on the embedded device side. You had given us a little bit of guidance on the gross profit margins on that in the past. And obviously, in the first half, you were sort of right at even, the second half, right at that 13% or so. Is that sort of where we should expect going forward?

Richard A. Flynt

Yes. I think it's going to be in the low double digits for that product line. We -- our focus is really on that subscription revenue. So that's what we want to get with the hardware.

Stratton J. Nicolaides

Well it has. The margin on the embedded device & hardware has improved dramatically, obviously, from the second half of the year over the first half of the year. And, yes, I don't think -- it could be in that range. We just haven't given any margin guidance on the revenue, just the revenue. And the first time -- and it's the first time we've given outside the fourth -- third quarter, guiding for the fourth quarter, first time we've ever given guidance on hardware because it's so sporadic. And I'm sure it's going to prove me wrong again, but it is sporadic and we experience swings in the hardware revenue quarter-to-quarter. So sequentially, it's very difficult to predict, but we feel very confident that the guidance we've given you for the full year, and keep in mind, it's important that we emphasize we've given you full year guidance here, not quarterly guidance, is going to come to fruition.

Operator

Thank you. And as there appear to be no further questions in queue, I'd like to hand the call back over to management for any closing remarks.

Stratton J. Nicolaides

Latiff, you want to give another couple of minutes just in case somebody's in the queue?

Operator

Sure. [Operator Instructions]

Stratton J. Nicolaides

All right. Then I'll -- thank you for turning it over to me, Latiff. And as we mentioned in our comments and this afternoon's -- also in the press release this afternoon, we are very pleased with the momentum created in the second half of 2013 that bodes well for a continued solid revenue growth and for strong 2014 performance, especially when combined with the robust opportunity funnel, the addition of new managed services agreements and a healthy roadmap to new product launches. Ladies and gentlemen, thank you very much for your continued support, and we look forward to speaking with you on our next earnings conference call. And thank you, Latiff.

Operator

My pleasure, sir. Thank you, ladies and gentlemen, for your participation. This does conclude your program. You may disconnect your lines at this time. Have a great day.

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