Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) iTunes is an online store for digital content like music, TV shows, movies and eBooks. Users can download content from iTunes and synchronize it with devices like iPods, iPhones and PCs. We estimate that iTunes constitutes around 3.5% of the $296 Trefis price estimate for Apple’s stock.
We estimate that Apple earned around 90% of its iTunes revenues in 2009 from sales of music. We expect that demand for sales will shift to to eBooks over time as a result of the iPad launch and the availability of eBooks on iTunues.
Despite eBooks, we still expect that music sales will be disproportionately high in the future as well. We estimate that music sales will still be around 82% of iTunes revenues in 2010 and will continue to increase to around 84% by the end of Trefis forecast period.
Large Volumes of Music Sales
The high contribution of music sales to iTunes is attributable to the large volume of music downloaded in comparison to other content (TV shows, films, eBooks). The large volume more than offsets the lower pricing of songs in comparison to most other content sold through iTunes.
We estimate that songs pricing will be around $0.93 in 2010, which is around 9x less than our $8 estimate for eBooks pricing in 2010. However, unit sales of songs is estimated to be around 3.4 billion in 2010, 70x greater than the 48 million eBooks we expect will be sold through iTunes in 2010.
You can see our complete model for Apple’s stock here.
Disclosure: No positions.