Click to enlargeBristol-Myers Squibb Company (NYSE:BMS) is engaged in the discovery, development, licensing, manufacturing, marketing, distribution and sale of pharmaceutical products on a global basis.
The Company’s products are sold worldwide, primarily to wholesalers, retail pharmacies, hospitals, government entities and the medical profession. It manufactures products in the United States, Puerto Rico and in eight foreign countries. In September 2009, BMS acquired Medarex, Inc., and in December 2009, it divested the Mead Johnson Nutrition Company (NYSE:MJN).
- Last Price: $22.88
- 52-Week High: $27.07
- 52-Week Low: $19.12
Does BMY make for an intelligent investment or intelligent speculation today?
Starting with a base estimate of annual Free Cash Flow at a value of approximately $3,400,000,000 and the number of shares outstanding at 1,981,000,000 shares; we used an assumed FCF annual growth of 7 percent for the first 10 years and assume zero growth from years 11 to 15. Review the Free Cash Flow record here:
The resulting estimated intrinsic value per share (discounted back to the present) is approximately $26.83.
- Market Price = $22.88
- Intrinsic Value = $26.83 (estimated)
- Debt/Equity (D/E) ratio = 0.41
- Price/Value (P/V) ratio = 0.85 and the estimated bargain = 15%
Before we make a purchase, we must decide (filter #1) if BMY is a high quality business with good economics. Does BMY have (filter #2) enduring competitive advantages, and does BMY have (filter #3) honest and able management.
- Current Price/Earnings ratio = 13.2
- Current Return on Capital = 19.21
- Using a Debt/Equity ratio of 0.41, BMY shows a 5-year average Return on Equity = 19.9
Some industries have higher ROE because they require no assets, such as consulting firms. Other industries require large infrastructure builds before they generate a penny of profit, such as oil refiners. Generally, capital-intensive businesses have higher barriers to entry, which limit competition. But, high-ROE firms with small asset bases have lower barriers to entry. Thus, such firms face more business risk because competitors can replicate their success without having to obtain much outside funding.
Growth benefits investors only when the business in point can invest at incremental returns that are enticing; only when each dollar used to finance the growth creates over a dollar of long-term market value. In the case of a low-return business requiring incremental funds, growth hurts the investor. The wonderful companies sustain a competitive advantage, produce free cash flow, and use debt wisely.
Does BMY make for an intelligent investment or speculation today? Time is said to be the friend of the wonderful company and the enemy of the mediocre one. Before making an investment decision, seek understanding about the company, its products, and its sustainable competitive advantages over competitors. Next, look for able and trustworthy managers who are focused more on value than just growth. Finally ask: Is there a bargain relative to its intrinsic value per share today?
Great investment opportunities come around when excellent companies are surrounded by unusual circumstances that cause the stock to be misappraised. In terms of Opportunity Cost, is BMY the best place to invest our money today?
Time Forward Projection:
How will BMY compete going forward? Keep in mind that a financial report like this is a reflection of the past and present. It may be used to project a future, but it may not account for factors yet unseen. Therefore, pay attention to competitive and market factors that may affect changes in profitability.
In summary, using a Debt/Equity ratio of 0.41, BMY shows a 5-year average Return on Equity = 19.9 The estimated intrinsic value per share (discounted back to the present) is approximately $26.83. The Market Price = $22.88 and the Debt/Equity ratio = 0.41. The Price/Value (P/V) ratio = 0.85 and the estimated bargain = 15%.
Disclosure: No positions