In the wake of the great financial crisis, it can sometimes be difficult for Intelligent Investors to find a solid financial company in which to invest, because they require specific achievements over the historical period. Many investors may simply decide to throw out the worst years with the rationale that they are outliers that shouldn't be considered when evaluating the company's prospects, but doing so would involve speculation. We don't know whether the financial crisis will happen again, but we do know that if it does, we can expect to see similar results as we did before. By continuing to require the same standards for the historical period, Intelligent Investors are able to widdle down banks to only those with the best financial position, and then they are able to determine an intrinsic value to get a sense of whether the company is a good investment. In addition, a company must have strong financial statements to prove that it is stable enough for Intelligent Investors. This is best done by utilizing a systematic approach to analysis that will provide investors with a sense of how a specific company compares to another company. By using the ModernGraham method one can review a company's historical accomplishments and determine an intrinsic value that can be compared across industries. What follows is a specific look at how Huntington Bancshares Inc. (NASDAQ:HBAN) fares in the ModernGraham valuation model.
Defensive Investor - must pass all 6 of the following tests: Score = 3/6
- Adequate Size of Enterprise - market capitalization of at least $2 billion - PASS
- Earnings Stability - positive earnings per share for at least 10 straight years - FAIL
- Dividend Record - has paid a dividend for at least 10 straight years - PASS
- Earnings Growth - earnings per share has increased by at least one-third over the last 10 years using three-year averages at beginning and end of period - FAIL
- Moderate PEmg ratio - PEmg is less than 20 - FAIL
- Moderate Price to Assets - PB ratio is less than 2.5 or PB x PEmg is less than 50 - PASS
Enterprising Investor - must pass all 3 of the following tests or be suitable for a defensive investor: Score = 2/3
- Earnings Stability - positive earnings per share for at least 5 years - FAIL
- Dividend Record - currently pays a dividend - PASS
- Earnings growth - EPSmg greater than 5 years ago - PASS
|Value Based on 3% Growth||$2.37|
|Value Based on 0% Growth||$1.39|
|Market Implied Growth Rate||25.05%|
Balance Sheet - 12/31/2013
Earnings Per Share
Earnings Per Share - ModernGraham
Huntington Bancshares survived the financial crisis, but not without posting some years of earnings losses. This has led the company to be disqualified from potential investment by the Defensive Investor, as the investor type requires 10 years of earnings stability and growth as well as a lower PEmg ratio. The company also is currently unsuitable for the Enterprising Investor, though if it can post another year of positive earnings, the Enterprising Investor will become interested. In the meantime, value investors following the ModernGraham approach should look into other opportunities, such as by reviewing ModernGraham's valuation of JPMorgan Chase (NYSE:JPM) and ModernGraham's valuation of Wells Fargo (NYSE:WFC). The company appears to also be overvalued at the current time, as even though the EPSmg (normalized earnings) has gone from -$1.74 in 2009 to $0.16 for 2013. This level of demonstrated historical growth does not support the market's implied estimate of 25.05% earnings growth. As a result, the ModernGraham valuation model returns an estimate of intrinsic value that falls below the price.
Disclaimer: The author did not hold a position in Huntington Bancshares Inc. (HBAN) or any of the other companies listed in this article at the time of publication and had no intention of changing that position within the next 72 hours.