Cramer's Mad Money - The Enemies Are The Stock Renters (3/24/14)

by: Miriam Metzinger

Stocks discussed on the in-depth session of Jim Cramer's Mad Money TV Program, Monday March 24.

Renters Of Stocks Are the Enemy: (NYSE:CRM), IBM (NYSE:IBM), Splunk (NASDAQ:SPLK), IBM (IBM), Symantec (NASDAQ:SYMC), J.C. Penney (NYSE:JCP)

With the Dow slipping 26 points, Cramer sees worrying signs for the market. IPOs are fast and furious, momentum stocks are getting too frothy and China doesn't seem to be turning around anytime soon. In addition, there are many kneejerk sellers who fear a turn and want to get out of certain stocks for any reason. These are "renters" of stocks. One stock that is the victim of renters is Splunk (SPLK), which collects and analyzes web data. SPLK reported one of the best quarters of 2014, has 52% revenue growth, 47% licensing growth and is investing in its business. The stock is up 12% for the year, but recently fell 8% because of insider selling along with "renters" who are worried about its huge gains and ditching the stock, and its chart which indicates it might have further to fall. With no dividend, buybacks or earnings to back it up, SPLK may be in freefall.

IBM (IBM) is a stock that attracts "owners" rather than renters. Warren Buffett owns a large amount of IBM shares, and like a classic Buffett stock, IBM has strong cash flow and an aggressive buyback. It is a slow and steady grower, trading at 10 times earnings with a 2% yield and a confident shareholder base. Those who own IBM see fellow shareholders as loyal friends, whereas for those who hold Splunk, other shareholders are their worst enemies.

Cramer took some calls:

Symantec (SYMC) has limited upside. It is inexpensive, but very desktop oriented. Cramer would sell it over $21.

J.C. Penney (JCP) can go to $10-11. JCP is probably going to be okay, because the consumer is returning to stores as the weather becomes milder.

CEO Interview: Michael Lewis Reger, Northern Oil & Gas (NYSEMKT:NOG)

The oil and gas boom is not bringing up all of the stocks in the industry. Northern Oil & Gas (NOG) has been a laggard in the sector and has almost halved in three years. The company doesn't drill but funds drilling and receives a percentage of the profits. Most of its clients are located in the Bakken, and NOG seems to be making less money than the actual drillers. It reported a 5 cents earnings miss and there are concerns about its balance sheet. CEO Michael Lewis Reger said the company's business model allows it to be more flexible with its investments in the Bakken and it is planning to buy additional wells. In the meantime, the company has initiated an aggressive buyback. Cramer suggests doing further homework on the company before buying.

These Stocks Will Come Back From Vacation: Starwood Hotels (HOT), (NASDAQ:PCLN), HomeAway (NASDAQ:AWAY), TripAdvisor (NASDAQ:TRIP). Other stock mentioned: Genworth (NYSE:GNW)

AirBNB is a privately traded online rental company that is currently valued at $10 billion, a valuation surpassing that of many mainstream hotel and timeshare companies. It isn't possible to invest in AirBNB until and unless it comes public, but Cramer thinks the company's sky high valuation is a bullish signal for publicly traded companies. Cramer would take a look at Starwood Hotels (HOT), which has found it more profitable to manage rather than own many of its properties and has aggressive international expansion. Priceline (PCLN) has been taken down by the rotation out of momentum stocks, but this company is still best-of-breed and is worth buying on its current decline. PCLN trades at a multiple of 19 with a 19.7% growth rate, and the stock is cheap. TripAdvisor (TRIP) and HomeAway (AWAY) have business models similar to that of AirBNB. If they continue to go lower, Cramer would grab some AWAY.

Genworth (GNW): Take some profits, because the 55% run in 9 months has been nosebleed.

The Problem With Recent IPOs

The frenetic IPO activity might be a "bull killer" as, in era fashion, there may be a rush of insider sellers dumping these biotech and cloud IPOs at their first opportunity. Is there really a need for so many biotech and cloud IPOs? Why didn't larger companies buy them? One reason that, in many cases, it is more profitable to have an IPO than to sell a smaller company to a larger one. This excessive supply of cloud and biotech names is bad news for the larger, best-of-breed players and may put a damper on the bull market.


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