Volatility Index [VIX]: Is 10 the New 12?

Roger Nusbaum submits: Could ten be the new twelve? In the last few years 12 seems like it has been a number of significance for the VIX index. As I write this, VIX is printing below 10. While I am not sure what to make of this, if you look at this long-term chart, VIX itself seems no less volatile -- it just seems to be moving in shallower waters.

Equity Office Properties Trust (EOP) and Phelps Dodge Corp. (PD) are big fishes in their respective ponds. Less supply of stock in these two areas is a positive. Both sub-sectors could still decline but less supply is a tailwind.

Comments

[Geoff Consi...:]

I have been noting the VIX lately too. I am willing to bet--in fact I am betting--that market volatility is simply in its normal secular swing--as your data shows. Market volatility tends to cycle just likey anything else. Even if you go back beyond when VIX existed and use something like trailing real volatility:

etf.seekingalpha.com/a...

We are at a low point in volatility and people have been getting high returns for bearing very little risk. Market history suggests that such periods do not last forever. Many investors have no idea how their portfolios will hold up if (and when) volatility reverts to anything like historical levels. You can calculate whether your portfolio will benefit or be hurt in a higher VIX environment. When we analyzed Berkshire Hathaway's equity holdings, we found that they would benefit from a higher VIX market. Is that coincidence?

2006 Nov 28 02:30 PM