Gold: Looking for a Pullback

Includes: DGP, GLD
by: Scott's Investments
Gold broke out to new highs last week and while I typically focus just on GLD, the SPDR Gold Trust ETF, Adam Hewison gives investors four different investment vehicles in this video for making a gold trade. His target on spot gold is $1300-$1310/oz and thinks we will see new highs.

When looking at my favorite gold proxy, GLD, I'm not so sure we are going to skyrocket next week. The intraday pullback on Friday and waning momentum indicators are an indication that long investors may be best suited waiting for a better entry point. While I normally am a fan of price momentum and all-time highs, this is one scenario where I am not eager to jump on board yet.

Taking a look at two charts below (click on each to enlarge), you will see the indicators to which I am referring. For an explanation of how to use the Average Directional Movement Index (ADX), see one of my previous posts. ADX is not yet a level which would indicate a strong trend (typically defined as an ADX reading above 20). In addition, MACD and full stochastics are below recent highs, despite price being at a new high. This is referred to as a divergence and can indicate that price momentum is fading.

I normally say that "price pays", and in the case of GLD "price"--at all-time highs--is saying strong momentum. However, diving a little deeper into indicators they are saying that a strong trend does not (yet) exist. Thus, I am not comfortable purchasing GLD (yet). The same holds true for spot gold, gold futures, and the gold ETN DGP all of which Hewison discusses in his video.

Disclosure: No positions